January 4, 2011
Pending Homes Sales Rise by Carla Hill
While credit remains tight as we move forward into 2011, top economists expect that if the job market revives this year, and interest rates rise only moderately, the housing market could experience a boost.
Pending homes sales are already on the rise. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index reports that pending homes sales rose in November by 3.5 percent.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. "In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market," he said. "But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity."
Across the nation, we see regionally diverse markets, however. The Northeast saw pending home sales rise by 1.8 percent, but this figure is still 6.2 percent below November 2009. The West also saw a stunning 18.2 percent jump. This jump leaves it within 0.4 percent of year ago levels.
Both the Midwest and South saw declines, though, in pending sales. The Midwest declined 4.2 percent and is still 7.7 percent below year ago levels. The South fell only 1.8 percent.
"As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2 to 3 percent in 2012," Yun said.
For now, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage remains in the low five percent range, which is near a historical low. The extension of Bush-era tax credits, as well as renewed hopes of job growth could very easily translate into more sales on the housing market horizon.
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Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Showing posts with label sales up. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sales up. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Monday, June 7, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends
Realty Times of June 7, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends by Kenneth R. Harney
Positive news on housing and real estate keep rolling in -- thanks in large part to federal home purchase tax credits and continuing near-record low mortgage rates.
Last week's pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors illustrates the trend: Pending contracts jumped for the third straight month -- up by six percent in April -- and now stand 22 percent higher than the year before.
Every region but one -- the South -- racked up sizable gains in transactions heading for settlement. Contracts in the Northeast were up by nearly 30 percent for the month. In the West, they rose nearly eight percent, and in the Midwest the gain was about four percent.
The South's pending sales were less than one percent off from the previous month, but are still an impressive 31 percent above where they were 12 months before.
Home prices also appear to be moving on an upward curve, according to the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index -- which tracks price movements in thousands of local markets and Zip codes.
Clear Capital's national report for the month of May found prices up by 6.8 percent year over year.
Consumer confidence is definitely powering some of these sales and price numbers, economists say. The Conference Board's index for consumer confidence in May rose by five points -- a good sign for consumers' willingness to spend money.
Lynn Franco, who directs the Conference Board's survey research center, noted that the "expectations" component of the index was particularly strong -- and is now at its highest point in nearly three years.
According to Franco, consumers' previous fears about the job market, incomes and the overall economy have been on the decline for a couple of months now.
Meanwhile, mortgage giant Fannie Mae released its latest economic projections for the rest of the year. Chief economist Doug Duncan says he sees a "self-sustaining economic recovery" gradually taking shape -- again good news for housing.
Of course, not all the latest numbers on real estate are upbeat. They never are. Now a closely watched index tied to likely new home purchase offers two to three months down the road has gone negative. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new loan applications declined again for the third straight week, and now is at its lowest point in 14 years.
What's going on here? Most likely its the tax credits. The April 30 deadline for signed contracts for the two tax credit programs -- and the phaseout of the entire credit program June 30 -- are definitely pushing loan applications down.
As we said last week, the credits -- which are part of the federal stimulus efforts -- pushed many purchasers to move up their transactions to the first half of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the underlying strength of the economic recovery should allow sales and loan applications to recover in the second half, without any need for additional federal help.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends by Kenneth R. Harney
Positive news on housing and real estate keep rolling in -- thanks in large part to federal home purchase tax credits and continuing near-record low mortgage rates.
Last week's pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors illustrates the trend: Pending contracts jumped for the third straight month -- up by six percent in April -- and now stand 22 percent higher than the year before.
Every region but one -- the South -- racked up sizable gains in transactions heading for settlement. Contracts in the Northeast were up by nearly 30 percent for the month. In the West, they rose nearly eight percent, and in the Midwest the gain was about four percent.
The South's pending sales were less than one percent off from the previous month, but are still an impressive 31 percent above where they were 12 months before.
Home prices also appear to be moving on an upward curve, according to the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index -- which tracks price movements in thousands of local markets and Zip codes.
Clear Capital's national report for the month of May found prices up by 6.8 percent year over year.
Consumer confidence is definitely powering some of these sales and price numbers, economists say. The Conference Board's index for consumer confidence in May rose by five points -- a good sign for consumers' willingness to spend money.
Lynn Franco, who directs the Conference Board's survey research center, noted that the "expectations" component of the index was particularly strong -- and is now at its highest point in nearly three years.
According to Franco, consumers' previous fears about the job market, incomes and the overall economy have been on the decline for a couple of months now.
Meanwhile, mortgage giant Fannie Mae released its latest economic projections for the rest of the year. Chief economist Doug Duncan says he sees a "self-sustaining economic recovery" gradually taking shape -- again good news for housing.
Of course, not all the latest numbers on real estate are upbeat. They never are. Now a closely watched index tied to likely new home purchase offers two to three months down the road has gone negative. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new loan applications declined again for the third straight week, and now is at its lowest point in 14 years.
What's going on here? Most likely its the tax credits. The April 30 deadline for signed contracts for the two tax credit programs -- and the phaseout of the entire credit program June 30 -- are definitely pushing loan applications down.
As we said last week, the credits -- which are part of the federal stimulus efforts -- pushed many purchasers to move up their transactions to the first half of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the underlying strength of the economic recovery should allow sales and loan applications to recover in the second half, without any need for additional federal help.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Experts Weigh In
Realty Times of May 10, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Experts Weigh In by Kenneth R. Harney
Mega-investor Warren Buffett and a group of top corporate leaders are weighing in on a key issue that's crucial to a sustained real estate recovery: How long will the good economic news we've been getting lately continue?
Are we going to be let down later in the second half of the year, or is the current, slow-moving national economic growth pattern a long term trend?
Buffet told his annual stockholders gathering in Omaha that, the economy is showing "significant" and persistent improvement for the first time since the financial crisis broke in 2008.
Other top business leaders polled by the Conference Board -- and quoted last week by the Wall Street Journal - said they are now "confident that the U.S. will see sustained growth through 2010" - with moderate gains in employment, consumer spending and consumer confidence.
That's hugely important for housing of course - and offers a strong answer to economic doomsayers who predict a sharp drop in home sales and real estate activity following the expiration of the tax credits.
The latest housing and mortgage numbers certainly look encouraging:
Pending home sales jumped by more than five percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, and were 21 percent higher than the previous year for the same month.
Home prices are turning at least modestly positive again in the majority of large housing markets. The closely-watched PMI risk index, which looks at price decline potentials for two years out, found that 42 of the 50 largest markets in its latest survey showed diminished risk.
Another index -- from valuation data firm Clear Capital - found home prices gained by five percent nationally year over year. Prices in a handful of what Clear Capital calls "micro" markets are doing better than that. Washington DC, for example, saw an 8.4 percent increase over last year, according to the latest index.
Meanwhile, new applications for loans to purchase houses took another big jump -- up 13 percent over the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
MBA vice president for research, Michael Fratantoni, said that last week's FHA and VA share of home purchase applications soared above 50 percent -- the highest it's been in more than two decades.
Finally, there was some outstanding news for home buyers and sellers in high cost markets: The jumbo loan market is roaring back -- with more banks now offering big loans and cutting rates. One major lender even announced that for credit-worthy applicants, it's dropping rates on jumbos to 5.7 percent for 30 years -- the best ever.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Experts Weigh In by Kenneth R. Harney
Mega-investor Warren Buffett and a group of top corporate leaders are weighing in on a key issue that's crucial to a sustained real estate recovery: How long will the good economic news we've been getting lately continue?
Are we going to be let down later in the second half of the year, or is the current, slow-moving national economic growth pattern a long term trend?
Buffet told his annual stockholders gathering in Omaha that, the economy is showing "significant" and persistent improvement for the first time since the financial crisis broke in 2008.
Other top business leaders polled by the Conference Board -- and quoted last week by the Wall Street Journal - said they are now "confident that the U.S. will see sustained growth through 2010" - with moderate gains in employment, consumer spending and consumer confidence.
That's hugely important for housing of course - and offers a strong answer to economic doomsayers who predict a sharp drop in home sales and real estate activity following the expiration of the tax credits.
The latest housing and mortgage numbers certainly look encouraging:
Pending home sales jumped by more than five percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, and were 21 percent higher than the previous year for the same month.
Home prices are turning at least modestly positive again in the majority of large housing markets. The closely-watched PMI risk index, which looks at price decline potentials for two years out, found that 42 of the 50 largest markets in its latest survey showed diminished risk.
Another index -- from valuation data firm Clear Capital - found home prices gained by five percent nationally year over year. Prices in a handful of what Clear Capital calls "micro" markets are doing better than that. Washington DC, for example, saw an 8.4 percent increase over last year, according to the latest index.
Meanwhile, new applications for loans to purchase houses took another big jump -- up 13 percent over the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
MBA vice president for research, Michael Fratantoni, said that last week's FHA and VA share of home purchase applications soared above 50 percent -- the highest it's been in more than two decades.
Finally, there was some outstanding news for home buyers and sellers in high cost markets: The jumbo loan market is roaring back -- with more banks now offering big loans and cutting rates. One major lender even announced that for credit-worthy applicants, it's dropping rates on jumbos to 5.7 percent for 30 years -- the best ever.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Pending Sales Up
April 12, 2010 Realty Times
Real Estate Outlook: Pending Sales Up by Kenneth R. Harney
Signs of recovery in the housing market and the national economy keep popping up - and are even beginning to surprise veteran analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere.
Though economists had expected the latest pending home sales index to be down - after all, February saw the worst weather in decades in large parts of the U.S. - the numbers actually took a big bounce.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending sales jumped 8.2 percent for the month and were 17 percent higher than they were at the same time last year.
Contracts in the Northeast were up by 9 percent, the Midwest by 22 percent and in the South by 9 percent. Only the Western region came in negative - down by 5 percent. But even in the West, pending sales were 15 percent higher than they were the year before.
With the April 30 deadline for sales contracts to qualify for the two housing tax credits just weeks away, analysts expect home sales activity to remain high. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says he thinks we may be in “the early stages of a second surge” of real estate transactions that could continue into mid-year.
But let's be clear: Home sales are not only being pushed by tax credits. Far stronger impetus is coming from steadily improving conditions in the national economy and rising consumer perceptions that finally things are getting better.
Look at the latest monthly employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the first time in nearly two years, there was significant new job creation during the month of March - 162,000 payroll positions.
That was helped along in part by Census Bureau hiring to conduct the 2010 census, but there was growth elsewhere as well: 15,000 net new construction jobs, 17,000 manufacturing jobs, and 11,000 business services jobs.
Home Depot and other big household-oriented retailers announced that they have begun hiring again. Retails sales nationwide jumped by 23 percent for the month; home furnishings and furniture sales were up 14 percent
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, told the New York Times that “consumers are (getting) almost giddy” in their zeal to resume spending, and they are cutting their savings to fund their new purchases.
All of this, of course, is great news for housing, which is hardwired to employment growth and consumer confidence
But don't assume we're out of the woods quite yet -- not with the national unemployment rate stuck at 9.7 percent. And there's another challenge taking shape on the horizon: Rising mortgage rates that are inevitable in an economy rebounding out of recession.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Pending Sales Up by Kenneth R. Harney
Signs of recovery in the housing market and the national economy keep popping up - and are even beginning to surprise veteran analysts on Wall Street and elsewhere.
Though economists had expected the latest pending home sales index to be down - after all, February saw the worst weather in decades in large parts of the U.S. - the numbers actually took a big bounce.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending sales jumped 8.2 percent for the month and were 17 percent higher than they were at the same time last year.
Contracts in the Northeast were up by 9 percent, the Midwest by 22 percent and in the South by 9 percent. Only the Western region came in negative - down by 5 percent. But even in the West, pending sales were 15 percent higher than they were the year before.
With the April 30 deadline for sales contracts to qualify for the two housing tax credits just weeks away, analysts expect home sales activity to remain high. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says he thinks we may be in “the early stages of a second surge” of real estate transactions that could continue into mid-year.
But let's be clear: Home sales are not only being pushed by tax credits. Far stronger impetus is coming from steadily improving conditions in the national economy and rising consumer perceptions that finally things are getting better.
Look at the latest monthly employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the first time in nearly two years, there was significant new job creation during the month of March - 162,000 payroll positions.
That was helped along in part by Census Bureau hiring to conduct the 2010 census, but there was growth elsewhere as well: 15,000 net new construction jobs, 17,000 manufacturing jobs, and 11,000 business services jobs.
Home Depot and other big household-oriented retailers announced that they have begun hiring again. Retails sales nationwide jumped by 23 percent for the month; home furnishings and furniture sales were up 14 percent
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, told the New York Times that “consumers are (getting) almost giddy” in their zeal to resume spending, and they are cutting their savings to fund their new purchases.
All of this, of course, is great news for housing, which is hardwired to employment growth and consumer confidence
But don't assume we're out of the woods quite yet -- not with the national unemployment rate stuck at 9.7 percent. And there's another challenge taking shape on the horizon: Rising mortgage rates that are inevitable in an economy rebounding out of recession.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Market Conditions
Realty Times of December 1, 2009
Market Conditions
Existing home sales have shown promising figures, as first-time buyers take advantage of the buyer tax credit and historically low interest rates.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. "Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November," he said. "With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer."
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.6 percent to an annual level of 1.06 million in October, and are 27.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $235,400, down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest surged 14.4 percent. The median price in the Midwest was $146,600, a gain of 1.1 percent from October 2008, the only region seeing a gain in median price.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 12.7 percent to an annual level of 2.30 million in October and are 25.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the South was $151,100, down 6.3 percent from a year ago.
The smallest increase in existing-home sales was seen in the West, which increased just 1.6. However, this number is a healthy 12.0 percent above a year ago. Home prices are still down for the region.
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Source: NAR
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Market Conditions
Existing home sales have shown promising figures, as first-time buyers take advantage of the buyer tax credit and historically low interest rates.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. "Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November," he said. "With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer."
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.6 percent to an annual level of 1.06 million in October, and are 27.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $235,400, down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest surged 14.4 percent. The median price in the Midwest was $146,600, a gain of 1.1 percent from October 2008, the only region seeing a gain in median price.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 12.7 percent to an annual level of 2.30 million in October and are 25.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the South was $151,100, down 6.3 percent from a year ago.
The smallest increase in existing-home sales was seen in the West, which increased just 1.6. However, this number is a healthy 12.0 percent above a year ago. Home prices are still down for the region.
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Source: NAR
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Price and Sale Gains
Realty Times of August 18, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Price and Sale Gains by Kenneth R. Harney
Sales of existing homes and condos continue to power the real estate market, in some areas they're up by double digits, and despite all the negative headlines about foreclosures, even prices are rising in many places as well.
Sales in the second quarter ending June 30 jumped by nearly 4 percent countrywide, according to the National Association of Realtors. Second quarter sales in 39 states were higher than the first quarter, as they were in 129 out of the 155 largest markets.
New York saw an impressive 22 percent increase for the quarter, as did Wisconsin. California, Michigan and Minnesota all registered double-digit sales gains compared with the second quarter of 2008.
Prices were still flat or down in markets where large percentages of sales are bank-owned REO. But in relatively healthy metro areas like Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, they were up significantly, by 11 percent over the second quarter of 2008.
In the Denver area during June, home prices were 6 percent higher than May, and resales increased by an eye-popping 32 percent, according to MDA DataQuick researchers.
Several of the national home price indexes also continue to point to more than a mere bottoming out -- they're documenting real turnarounds in key areas. The Integrated Asset Services (IAS) 360 index reported a 1.2 percent average increase in its thousands of data-gathering submarkets and neighborhoods for June.
Average prices in Boston gained 2.9 percent for the month, according to IAS. In Chicago they were up 1.3 percent, Los Angeles 2.2 percent, San Francisco 1.7 percent, and San Diego 1.4 percent.
Meanwhile, mortgages continued their modest but steady gains, with new loan applications to buy houses up last week by about one percent over the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Rates jumped slightly, however, with 30 year fixed conventional loans going for an average 5.4 percent, and fifteen year rates at 4.7 percent.
Conditions in the overall economy were more mixed than in the housing arena, but the big picture still has most economists, and even the Federal Reserve, encouraged that the recession will be over this year.
Fewer jobs were lost last month than expected and unemployment fell to 9.4 percent. But let's face it: losing a quarter of a million jobs in the span of a month is still a serious drag on the economy - and is certainly no plus for housing.
On the other hand, is there anybody out there who wants to trade today's mixed outlook with last fall's horror show scenario, when we were all tottering on the edge of a global financial disaster?
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Price and Sale Gains by Kenneth R. Harney
Sales of existing homes and condos continue to power the real estate market, in some areas they're up by double digits, and despite all the negative headlines about foreclosures, even prices are rising in many places as well.
Sales in the second quarter ending June 30 jumped by nearly 4 percent countrywide, according to the National Association of Realtors. Second quarter sales in 39 states were higher than the first quarter, as they were in 129 out of the 155 largest markets.
New York saw an impressive 22 percent increase for the quarter, as did Wisconsin. California, Michigan and Minnesota all registered double-digit sales gains compared with the second quarter of 2008.
Prices were still flat or down in markets where large percentages of sales are bank-owned REO. But in relatively healthy metro areas like Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, they were up significantly, by 11 percent over the second quarter of 2008.
In the Denver area during June, home prices were 6 percent higher than May, and resales increased by an eye-popping 32 percent, according to MDA DataQuick researchers.
Several of the national home price indexes also continue to point to more than a mere bottoming out -- they're documenting real turnarounds in key areas. The Integrated Asset Services (IAS) 360 index reported a 1.2 percent average increase in its thousands of data-gathering submarkets and neighborhoods for June.
Average prices in Boston gained 2.9 percent for the month, according to IAS. In Chicago they were up 1.3 percent, Los Angeles 2.2 percent, San Francisco 1.7 percent, and San Diego 1.4 percent.
Meanwhile, mortgages continued their modest but steady gains, with new loan applications to buy houses up last week by about one percent over the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Rates jumped slightly, however, with 30 year fixed conventional loans going for an average 5.4 percent, and fifteen year rates at 4.7 percent.
Conditions in the overall economy were more mixed than in the housing arena, but the big picture still has most economists, and even the Federal Reserve, encouraged that the recession will be over this year.
Fewer jobs were lost last month than expected and unemployment fell to 9.4 percent. But let's face it: losing a quarter of a million jobs in the span of a month is still a serious drag on the economy - and is certainly no plus for housing.
On the other hand, is there anybody out there who wants to trade today's mixed outlook with last fall's horror show scenario, when we were all tottering on the edge of a global financial disaster?
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Real Estate Outlook
From Realty Times of July 7, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Gains Versus Gloom by Kenneth R. Harney
(Note Phoenix comments!)
When even the Case-Shiller index, which ranks as the gloomiest of all the measures of house price movements, starts reporting gains then you know something is stirring out there in real estate.
In its latest monthly survey, Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index found prices up in a number of key markets: Dallas prices gained 1.7 percent, Denver 1.5 percent and other cities -- Washington DC, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, Boston and Cleveland -- registered smaller increases.
Nationally, the Case-Shiller index came in slightly negative for the month overall, as did the Federal Housing Finance Agency's home purchase price index.
But even the most bearish researchers now agree: Prices are bottoming out, even in some of the hardest-hit areas.
Home sales are also up in many local markets, sometimes dramatically so. Take metropolitan Phoenix. According to the latest MDA DataQuick survey, sales in the Phoenix market grew at their fastest pace in two years during May.
Resales of detached houses were up by 56 percent over year ago levels, and condo sales were up by 30 percent.
Even prices in the Phoenix area, a market still weighed down by a high percentage of distressed sales and foreclosures, gained by 3.5 percent in May over April levels.
That's an important turnaround, but the sobering fact is that even with that gain, prices in Phoenix are still down 38 percent compared with the same period in 2008.
Other important developments this week pointing to improvements in the housing sector:
Mortgage rates continue to drop, and are now approaching the lows we saw a few months back. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, average 30 year fixed rates hit 5.3 percent last week-the third straight weekly decline. Fifteen year fixed rates already have pushed below the 5 percent mark - and averaged just 4.8 percent last week.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan's survey, was up slightly again, with more consumers indicating confidence in making “big ticket” purchases, which of course include houses.
Now none of this is to suggest that real estate is in great shape and happy days are here again.
That's not the case -- not with hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs every month and the national unemployment rate projected to approach 10 percent. And not with lenders continuing to impose tough credit and underwriting standards on all home purchase mortgage applications.
But after so many months of negative news, we think it's important to acknowledge the positive signs popping up on home sales, pricing and interest rates - even if we still have a long way to go to full recovery.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Gains Versus Gloom by Kenneth R. Harney
(Note Phoenix comments!)
When even the Case-Shiller index, which ranks as the gloomiest of all the measures of house price movements, starts reporting gains then you know something is stirring out there in real estate.
In its latest monthly survey, Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index found prices up in a number of key markets: Dallas prices gained 1.7 percent, Denver 1.5 percent and other cities -- Washington DC, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, Boston and Cleveland -- registered smaller increases.
Nationally, the Case-Shiller index came in slightly negative for the month overall, as did the Federal Housing Finance Agency's home purchase price index.
But even the most bearish researchers now agree: Prices are bottoming out, even in some of the hardest-hit areas.
Home sales are also up in many local markets, sometimes dramatically so. Take metropolitan Phoenix. According to the latest MDA DataQuick survey, sales in the Phoenix market grew at their fastest pace in two years during May.
Resales of detached houses were up by 56 percent over year ago levels, and condo sales were up by 30 percent.
Even prices in the Phoenix area, a market still weighed down by a high percentage of distressed sales and foreclosures, gained by 3.5 percent in May over April levels.
That's an important turnaround, but the sobering fact is that even with that gain, prices in Phoenix are still down 38 percent compared with the same period in 2008.
Other important developments this week pointing to improvements in the housing sector:
Mortgage rates continue to drop, and are now approaching the lows we saw a few months back. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, average 30 year fixed rates hit 5.3 percent last week-the third straight weekly decline. Fifteen year fixed rates already have pushed below the 5 percent mark - and averaged just 4.8 percent last week.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan's survey, was up slightly again, with more consumers indicating confidence in making “big ticket” purchases, which of course include houses.
Now none of this is to suggest that real estate is in great shape and happy days are here again.
That's not the case -- not with hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs every month and the national unemployment rate projected to approach 10 percent. And not with lenders continuing to impose tough credit and underwriting standards on all home purchase mortgage applications.
But after so many months of negative news, we think it's important to acknowledge the positive signs popping up on home sales, pricing and interest rates - even if we still have a long way to go to full recovery.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Bottom in Sight?
From Realty Times of February 17, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Bottom in Sight? by Kenneth R. Harney:
Signs of a cyclical turnaround for housing are on the upswing. Sales are up sharply in many of the hardest-hit markets, and prices are firming in many others.
And now, even some of the country's previously most-bearish economists and media outlets are seeing the light.
Last week, Dr. Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, surprised analysts by announcing that "the bottom of the housing downturn is in sight for the nation."
Just days later the Wall Street Journal -- which had been among the most pessimistic of major U.S. dailies -- ran a prominent article with this headline: "For some, it's finally time to dive into the housing market."
The article focused on purchasers in Phoenix, Seattle and Connecticut who recently found that lower prices and affordable mortgage rates made ownership possible for them. They got what appear to be great deals.
The Journal quoted one Phoenix buyer who had just picked up a bargain-priced first home as saying, "six months ago, I didn't think I would ever own a home. Now I do. It's so perfect."
It's obviously good news that doom and gloom economists like Zandi and the Wall Street Journal are picking up on what's happening in local real estate markets. More important for the larger market, though, is that they are in the position to spread the word to consumers that it's now not simply a "good time to buy," it's also a safe time to buy.
Mortgage rates continue to hover near historic lows. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, thirty year fixed rates last week averaged 5.2 percent, down from 5.3 percent the week before. Fifteen year rates average a flat five percent.
But don't mistake the message here: The economy as a whole still is facing huge problems -- unemployment at 7.6 percent, banks taking billions from the government, a stock market that's still pumping out losses, household consumption down.
None of that is positive for real estate.
But here's what may be developing: Just as housing's troubles preceded the rest of the economy on the way down, there are increasing indications that housing could be out ahead on the national economic recovery.
Why? Because pent-up demand is strong, affordable financing is there for buyers with decent credit and a downpayment, and improved federal tax credit incentives make the equation even better.
Once more consumers grasp the fact that the worst is over for real estate, we just might see some very encouraging numbers in the months ahead.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Real Estate Outlook: Bottom in Sight? by Kenneth R. Harney:
Signs of a cyclical turnaround for housing are on the upswing. Sales are up sharply in many of the hardest-hit markets, and prices are firming in many others.
And now, even some of the country's previously most-bearish economists and media outlets are seeing the light.
Last week, Dr. Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com, surprised analysts by announcing that "the bottom of the housing downturn is in sight for the nation."
Just days later the Wall Street Journal -- which had been among the most pessimistic of major U.S. dailies -- ran a prominent article with this headline: "For some, it's finally time to dive into the housing market."
The article focused on purchasers in Phoenix, Seattle and Connecticut who recently found that lower prices and affordable mortgage rates made ownership possible for them. They got what appear to be great deals.
The Journal quoted one Phoenix buyer who had just picked up a bargain-priced first home as saying, "six months ago, I didn't think I would ever own a home. Now I do. It's so perfect."
It's obviously good news that doom and gloom economists like Zandi and the Wall Street Journal are picking up on what's happening in local real estate markets. More important for the larger market, though, is that they are in the position to spread the word to consumers that it's now not simply a "good time to buy," it's also a safe time to buy.
Mortgage rates continue to hover near historic lows. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, thirty year fixed rates last week averaged 5.2 percent, down from 5.3 percent the week before. Fifteen year rates average a flat five percent.
But don't mistake the message here: The economy as a whole still is facing huge problems -- unemployment at 7.6 percent, banks taking billions from the government, a stock market that's still pumping out losses, household consumption down.
None of that is positive for real estate.
But here's what may be developing: Just as housing's troubles preceded the rest of the economy on the way down, there are increasing indications that housing could be out ahead on the national economic recovery.
Why? Because pent-up demand is strong, affordable financing is there for buyers with decent credit and a downpayment, and improved federal tax credit incentives make the equation even better.
Once more consumers grasp the fact that the worst is over for real estate, we just might see some very encouraging numbers in the months ahead.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
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Friday, February 13, 2009
California Ends '08 With Run Up of Sales
From Realty Times of February 13, 2009
Hot Market: California Ends '08 With Run Up of Sales, Prices Stable
by M. Anthony Carr
Average sales prices in the Western United States dropped year over year by almost 27 percent, which gave buyers incentive to jump off the fence at the second highest level for the year. Pending sales jumped 36 percent in December, compared to a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In the California Association of Realtors 2008 market wrap up senior research analyst Oscar Wei says, "Annual sales of existing homes for 2008 increased 26.7 percent from a revised 2007 figure of 346,940 to 439,740 in 2008. Large year-to-year percentage gains in sales will likely continue … ."
The more telling side of the coin is that prices are declining month by month at a much smaller rate -- only 2 percent from November to December. (Year over year, the average sales price was down 38 percent statewide.
Another sign of the strong recovery is demonstrated in the supply side number. "The unsold inventory index was 5.6 months in December, down from 6.9 months a month earlier and was less than half of the inventory level of 13.4 month a year ago. The index has been below the long run average of 7 months since July 2008, and the current inventory level of 5.6 months was the lowest since March 2006," Wei says.
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Hot Market: California Ends '08 With Run Up of Sales, Prices Stable
by M. Anthony Carr
Average sales prices in the Western United States dropped year over year by almost 27 percent, which gave buyers incentive to jump off the fence at the second highest level for the year. Pending sales jumped 36 percent in December, compared to a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.
In the California Association of Realtors 2008 market wrap up senior research analyst Oscar Wei says, "Annual sales of existing homes for 2008 increased 26.7 percent from a revised 2007 figure of 346,940 to 439,740 in 2008. Large year-to-year percentage gains in sales will likely continue … ."
The more telling side of the coin is that prices are declining month by month at a much smaller rate -- only 2 percent from November to December. (Year over year, the average sales price was down 38 percent statewide.
Another sign of the strong recovery is demonstrated in the supply side number. "The unsold inventory index was 5.6 months in December, down from 6.9 months a month earlier and was less than half of the inventory level of 13.4 month a year ago. The index has been below the long run average of 7 months since July 2008, and the current inventory level of 5.6 months was the lowest since March 2006," Wei says.
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
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