Real Estate Outlook: Experts Weigh In

Realty Times of May 10, 2010

Real Estate Outlook: Experts Weigh In by Kenneth R. Harney


Mega-investor Warren Buffett and a group of top corporate leaders are weighing in on a key issue that's crucial to a sustained real estate recovery: How long will the good economic news we've been getting lately continue?

Are we going to be let down later in the second half of the year, or is the current, slow-moving national economic growth pattern a long term trend?

Buffet told his annual stockholders gathering in Omaha that, the economy is showing "significant" and persistent improvement for the first time since the financial crisis broke in 2008.

Other top business leaders polled by the Conference Board -- and quoted last week by the Wall Street Journal - said they are now "confident that the U.S. will see sustained growth through 2010" - with moderate gains in employment, consumer spending and consumer confidence.

That's hugely important for housing of course - and offers a strong answer to economic doomsayers who predict a sharp drop in home sales and real estate activity following the expiration of the tax credits.

The latest housing and mortgage numbers certainly look encouraging:

Pending home sales jumped by more than five percent in March, according to the National Association of Realtors, and were 21 percent higher than the previous year for the same month.

Home prices are turning at least modestly positive again in the majority of large housing markets. The closely-watched PMI risk index, which looks at price decline potentials for two years out, found that 42 of the 50 largest markets in its latest survey showed diminished risk.

Another index -- from valuation data firm Clear Capital - found home prices gained by five percent nationally year over year. Prices in a handful of what Clear Capital calls "micro" markets are doing better than that. Washington DC, for example, saw an 8.4 percent increase over last year, according to the latest index.

Meanwhile, new applications for loans to purchase houses took another big jump -- up 13 percent over the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBA vice president for research, Michael Fratantoni, said that last week's FHA and VA share of home purchase applications soared above 50 percent -- the highest it's been in more than two decades.

Finally, there was some outstanding news for home buyers and sellers in high cost markets: The jumbo loan market is roaring back -- with more banks now offering big loans and cutting rates. One major lender even announced that for credit-worthy applicants, it's dropping rates on jumbos to 5.7 percent for 30 years -- the best ever.

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