Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Increase by Most Since 2006

The article, Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Increase by Most Since 2006, from www.bloomberg.com, reports that home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in the 12 months to December by the most in more than six years, a sign the housing-market recovery is strengthening. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 6.8 percent from December 2011, the biggest year-to-year gain since July 2006. “The key here is it’s not as if we’re getting all the juice from one area, it’s broadly based across the country,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, who correctly projected the year-over-year increase. “Rates are low, prices are attractive, so affordability is high, and the labor market is gradually healing as well. If you were in the market to buy a home, right now it’s a good time." Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations in the 20-city index climbed 0.9 percent in December from the prior month, compared with a 0.7 gain in November. The month-over-month gain was led by Las Vegas and Los Angeles. All 20 cities showed increases. Phoenix led the group of 19 cities that showed year-over- year increases, with a 23 percent jump in the 12 months to December. San Francisco was second with a 14.4 percent gain.

Here is the link to the entire article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-increase-by-most-since-2006.html

Phoenix, AZ Statiscal Data

Please take the time to visit my Webpage at www.denismarque.com .

I have added extensive statistical data on Sales, Listings, Days on Market, Foreclosures and many other items at "Market Statistics" on the webpage. You will find it to be encouraging if you are buying or selling in the Phoenix Metro marketplace.

As an aside, if you are concerned about keeping your current home, we do have several plans available to assist you including HAFA, HAMP, and HARP. Give us a call at 480-899-8844.

Denis

Fannie and Freddie Set Timeline Requirements for Short Sales

Fannie and Freddie Set Timeline Requirements for Short Sales

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Signs of upturn in Phoenix's long-suffering housing market

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6 tips for selling in today's market

Does is make more sense to wait or make the move now?

6 tips for selling in today's market

Courtesy of Inman News and Lowes.

Sales Across the Nation

May 2, 2011 ON Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Sales Across the Nation by Carla Hill

It's all about sales this week, with the most recent reports coming out on existing-home, new home, and pending home sales.

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), existing-home sales rose in March, up 3.7 percent. The NAR expects existing-home sale to rise around 5 to 10 percent this year, thanks to high levels of affordability, rising rent costs, and job growth.

In new homes, a segment of the market that took a big hit during the recession, sales were up a healthy 11.1 percent in March.

National Association of Home Builders' Chief Economist, David Crowe, reports, "The March pace of new-home sales more accurately reflects current market conditions than the extremely low pace we saw in the first two months of this year, when unusually poor weather likely kept buyers away. That said, the average sales pace for the first quarter of 2011 held at about the same level seen for the last half of 2010. A limiting factor is the extremely thin inventory of new homes for sale, which is now at its second-lowest level in history. Builders continue to confront major challenges in obtaining financing to build new homes, and the shortage of new product makes it that much tougher for them to compete with existing homes on the market. At the same time, tighter lending conditions are making it more difficult for qualified buyers to obtain a mortgage."

Regionally, all areas except the South saw a rise in sales of newly built homes. The Northeast led the way with a 66.7 percent gain. The West posted a distant second at a 25.9 percent gain, and the Midwest saw a still impressive rise of 12.9 percent.

The inventory of new homes for sale fell to 183,000 units in March, which is the second-lowest level on record. This represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace.

Pending home sales were also on the rise. After an uneven recovery the past nine months, the NAR's Pending Home Sales Index saw contract signings rise 5.1 percent. This is still down over 11 percent from March 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he said. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

Regionally, all regions except the Northeast saw rises, though every region is still below last year's levels. Most are between 10 and 20 percent below March 2010 levels.

The largest increase month over month was seen in the South, rising 10.3 percent.

Continued strides in the job market and economy will help to foster more growth in the housing sector. If recession recovery continues, the housing market should continue to post gains in the months ahead.

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Low Mortgage Rates

April 27, 2011 from Realty Times

Low Mortgage Rates a Plus for Improving Housing Market
by Ed Ferrara

This past week's released economic data reports came from several housing market areas, all of which showed some improvement over the past month. At the same time, Freerateupdate.com's daily survey of wholesale and direct lenders show that mortgage rates have continued to remain stable and at low levels for the past week.

Conforming 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.750%, 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.000% and 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.125%. Conforming mortgage loans require good credit in order to obtain lender approval and the lowest mortgage rates with 0.7 to 1% origination fee. Conforming 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages are the most popular of this group because they offer security with a consistent mortgage payment over the life of the loan.

The trend with borrowers for several years continues to be FHA mortgage loans. FHA 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.500%, FHA 15 year fixed mortgage rates are at 4.250% and FHA 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.750%. For borrowers who have a limited amount of available funds, FHA mortgage loans offer a low down payment option, as well as easier credit qualifying. FHA also accepts gifts from several sources that can be used for the down payment. These benefits often override any FHA downsides, such as higher FHA closing costs (APR) due to the upfront mortgage insurance premium and other various FHA fees.

Jumbo mortgage interest rates continue to be consistently low and beneficial for the high end borrower. Jumbo 30 year fixed mortgage rates are at 5.375%, jumbo 15 year mortgage rates are at 5.000% and jumbo 5/1 adjustable mortgage rates are at 3.875%. Borrowers need jumbo mortgage loans for mortgage financing above the conforming loan limit which is $417,000 to $729,000 depending on location. In order to obtain these low jumbo mortgage rates with 0.7 to 1% origination fee, borrowers must have outstanding credit and the ability to meet approval guidelines set by lenders.

MBS prices (also known as mortgage backed securities) are dependent upon market conditions and investor sentiment. Mortgage rates move in the opposite direction of MBS prices. Recent data released showed a very necessary improvement in the sluggish housing market. For the month of March, housing starts saw a jump, existing home sales increased and home mortgages rose. Yesterday, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that new home sales were stronger than expected. Through all of this, MBS prices fluctuated a little in both directions, but never enough to make a change in mortgage.

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Builder Confidence and Existing-Home Sales

April 25, 2011 from Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Builder Confidence and Existing-Home Sales
by Carla Hill

The prevalence of short sales and foreclosures has prompted a new bill to be considered in Congress. According to the National Association of Realtors, this new bill could "improve the process for approving short sales" and "bring relief to distressed home owners who are unable to keep their homes and hope to avoid foreclosure."

The process in place now is said to be time-consuming and inefficient.

Ron Phipps, NAR President, says, "As the leading advocate for home ownership and housing issues, Realtors® want to help more home owners avoid foreclosure by facilitating a short sale when a family is absolutely unable to keep their home; however, that can only happen if lenders and servicers approve short sale offers in a reasonable amount of time. Streamlining short sales transactions will reduce the amount of time it takes to sell the property, improve the likelihood that the transaction will close and reduce the overall number of foreclosures. This benefits sellers, lenders, buyers and the entire community."

And communities need all the help they can get. Builder confidence for newly built, single-family homes fell in March, leaving the Index almost stagnant for the last 6 months. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the South was to largely blame, dropping 4 points on the Housing Market Index scale.

"The spring home buying season is getting off to a slow start due to persistent concerns about home values as more foreclosures seem to be hitting the market, increasingly restrictive lending requirements for home buyers and builders, and the slow pace of economic recovery," acknowledged NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While pockets of improving activity are appearing in some markets, the best sales activity appears to be happening in the lower price ranges, where first-time buyers have greater flexibility than repeat buyers who must sell their current home. Consumers who can take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates and very attractive pricing are finding bargains and are buying."

The good news for builders? Nationwide housing starts rose by 7.2 percent in March, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), says, "While the overall rate of new-home production remains quite low and is still being weighed down by significant uncertainties among both home builders and buyers, this latest report is encouraging. It means that some builders are cautiously beginning to re-stock their extremely thin inventories of new homes in anticipation of gradual improvement in consumer demand as the economy slowly inches toward recovery."

All regions except the Northeast experienced gains in March. The West led the way with a 37.1 percent gain. The Midwest and South gained 6.9 and 6.3 percent, respectively.

And the sale of existing-homes rose in March, as well. This continues the uneven recovery we've been experiencing.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects this improving sales pattern to continue. "Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path," he said. "With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain – primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows."

And single-family home sales rose 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in March from 4.28 million in February, but are 6.5 percent below the 4.76 million level in March 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $160,500 in March, down 5.3 percent from a year ago. Median prices were down in all regions, ranging from 3.0 to 11.2 percent below year ago levels.

Regionally, existing-home sales rose 3.9 percent in the Northeast, but are 12.1 percent below March 2010. The Midwest saw just a 1.0 percent gain and is still 13.1 percent below year ago levels. The West dropped a marginal 0.8 percent and the South actually rose 8.2 percent.

Buyers are expected to return to the market, though. NAR President, Ron Phipps, reports, "As buyers gain more financial security, the advantages of home ownership become more obvious."

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends

Realty Times of June 7, 2010

Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends by Kenneth R. Harney


Positive news on housing and real estate keep rolling in -- thanks in large part to federal home purchase tax credits and continuing near-record low mortgage rates.

Last week's pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors illustrates the trend: Pending contracts jumped for the third straight month -- up by six percent in April -- and now stand 22 percent higher than the year before.

Every region but one -- the South -- racked up sizable gains in transactions heading for settlement. Contracts in the Northeast were up by nearly 30 percent for the month. In the West, they rose nearly eight percent, and in the Midwest the gain was about four percent.

The South's pending sales were less than one percent off from the previous month, but are still an impressive 31 percent above where they were 12 months before.

Home prices also appear to be moving on an upward curve, according to the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index -- which tracks price movements in thousands of local markets and Zip codes.

Clear Capital's national report for the month of May found prices up by 6.8 percent year over year.

Consumer confidence is definitely powering some of these sales and price numbers, economists say. The Conference Board's index for consumer confidence in May rose by five points -- a good sign for consumers' willingness to spend money.

Lynn Franco, who directs the Conference Board's survey research center, noted that the "expectations" component of the index was particularly strong -- and is now at its highest point in nearly three years.

According to Franco, consumers' previous fears about the job market, incomes and the overall economy have been on the decline for a couple of months now.

Meanwhile, mortgage giant Fannie Mae released its latest economic projections for the rest of the year. Chief economist Doug Duncan says he sees a "self-sustaining economic recovery" gradually taking shape -- again good news for housing.

Of course, not all the latest numbers on real estate are upbeat. They never are. Now a closely watched index tied to likely new home purchase offers two to three months down the road has gone negative. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new loan applications declined again for the third straight week, and now is at its lowest point in 14 years.

What's going on here? Most likely its the tax credits. The April 30 deadline for signed contracts for the two tax credit programs -- and the phaseout of the entire credit program June 30 -- are definitely pushing loan applications down.

As we said last week, the credits -- which are part of the federal stimulus efforts -- pushed many purchasers to move up their transactions to the first half of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the underlying strength of the economic recovery should allow sales and loan applications to recover in the second half, without any need for additional federal help.

Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Real Estate Outlook: Faster Recovery?

April 19, 2010 in Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Faster Recovery?
by Kenneth R. Harney


It's been a long time since we've seen the Wall Street Journal run a front-page article suggesting that the national economy appears to be rebounding faster than most analysts forecast. But that happened last week.

And over the past couple of years, we haven't seen retail sales -- a key barometer of consumer confidence -- jump by almost two percent in a single month. But we saw that last week as well.

And then there's real estate: The latest Federal Reserve "beige book" on economic conditions nationwide, issued last week, said something we haven't heard in a long, long time. Housing activity is up in 11 of the 12 bank districts.

All of this, of course, sounds like promising news for home sales in the coming months. In fact, Freddie Mac's economists see total sales this year at least 10 percent higher than last year, even with the possibility of higher mortgage interest rates.

But there are complications in the mix: The Fed's "beige book" report essentially said, yes, housing is on an upward path at the moment, but what happens to sales after the home purchase tax credits expire mid-year?

Will expansion elsewhere in the economy be able to sustain sales and prices?

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, has similar concerns. In his latest commentary, Yun says steadily rising employment will be essential to keeping housing positive once the credits disappear.

The employment report for March was encouraging: 162,000 net new jobs, Yun noted, even in hard hit sectors like manufacturing. Yun's forecast model projects one million additional new jobs this year, plus another two million next year.

But even that sort of rebound in employment won't be enough to replace the 8.2 million jobs lost in the recession years. So the unemployment challenge is likely to be with us for a few years -- at best.

Meanwhile, though foreclosures remain troublingly high, the rate of delinquencies on existing mortgages may have actually peaked and could be headed downward. Equifax and Moody's Economy.com report that the percentage of home loans thirty days late dropped in the first quarter - the first decline in four years.

And in major housing markets that took hard hits during the bust, signs of recovery continue to multiply. For example, in the six counties of Southern California, home sales were up 33 percent in March over February, and were up five percent over 2009 levels, according to MDA Data Quick.

Even median prices were on the rise -- by 14 percent over year-earlier levels.


Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Housing Affected by Demographic Trends

From Realty Times of February 5, 2010

Housing Affected by Demographic Trends by Phoebe Chongchua

The Urban Land Institute predicts there will be two major changes beginning in this new decade in our country that will affect the housing market.

The first is that home appreciation will slow. The report predicts annual appreciation of 1 percent to 2 percent. The second change is that the record-high U.S. homeownership rate will decline from 69 percent to 62 percent.

Four other demographic trends are likely to have an impact as well. Aging baby boomers, those 55 to 64 years old, will keep working, and, some may stay put in their current suburban homes until the values recover. And, just as I wrote about last week, those in this group who do move will look for comfortable, easy homes (first-floor master bedroom), but the report indicates they’ll look for mixed-age living environments that cater to active lifestyles.

The second major demographic trend could impact the second-home market. Those between the ages of 46 to 54 years old, according to the report, are in their prime earning years; however, they lack home equity and may not be able to afford second homes (unlike the older baby boomers).

There are approximately 68-million people that make up Generation Y. This group is even larger than the baby boomers. But the report indicates this group is less interested in homeownership. The author of the report, John K. McIlwain, wrote, “They will be renters by necessity or choice for years ahead.” Not surprisingly, this tech-savvy group places high value on communities—real and virtual—where information and ideas can be shared.

This generation likes walkable, close-in communities. They’re not seeking to escape to the outer edges of town, unless they can’t afford anything nearby. Another big draw—“net zero” homes—green and powered exclusively by alternative energy.

The fourth major demographic trend involves immigrants. This group is often attracted to multi-generational housing in areas that have a strong sense of community. So, larger homes are preferred, if affordable.

Overall, the lasting stability of the U.S. housing market, according to McIlwain, will depend most on the structure and revitalization of the private home mortgage finance system.

"Re-establishing a robust private mortgage market will require both strong market fundamentals and a reformed mortgage securitization structure that eliminates past abuses," McIlwain said. Bye-bye suburbia, study says. Well, not completely. But the study does indicate that several factors are escalating the popularity of urbanization: two-person household growth (including those households without children), fewer baby boomers moving to the suburbs, Gen Y opting/forced to rent rather than own, and public policies that encourage compact development.

However, the author of the study says that urban infill development can’t accommodate all the housing demand from the demographic groups. McIlwain cautions that suburban development "must adapt or it will be obsolete.” A new era is blossoming, “The suburban century is over. This is the urban century."


Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.