Showing posts with label market projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market projections. Show all posts
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Thursday, February 24, 2011
When will it end
Taken from responses to the question "When will it end?" by other Realtors.
1) As long as the banks are involved in real estate transactions which they know nothing about, it probably won't end for years to come. These banks are unbelievable. They just sent us a short sale package back saying that the word "Phoenix" was abbreviated "Phx" and it need to be spelling out on the listing contract. Once it was corrected, it took them two weeks to come back and demand that all parties sign the listing contract. Say what? Since when does a buyer get to look at listing contracts between the seller and broker?
Problems like this one are occurring every day. Yes, I wonder too, when will it end?
2) It will end when the large prevelent foreclosures and short sales end. I agree with (above), each bank/company has their own rules for these properties. It is not a matter of understanding how to deal with the foreclosure, because it is almost impossible to learn all the different rules.
3) Good question! I definitely agree with both (of the above), but would add that until unemployment abates and jobs open up or are created, we will continue to have issues.
4) There is also the perception by consumers that the market is in complete disarray and they are waiting for it to return to "normal." There are almost no buyers in the market because they think prices will continue to drop. Potential sellers know they are going to take a beating if they try to sell. They all think that, at some point, the market will return to where it was. Until consumers realize that this, in many ways, is the new normal, buyers and sellers will continue to sit on the sidelines.
Then there is the issue of financing. But I'll leave that for another commenter.
ED Comment: These are the views of four Realtors that offer reflection of where the market is and when will we see some stability return. "Normal" is not a return to our past, it is where we are today and for the foreseeable future. If you are sitting on the fence, waiting will not provide a better time to act for several years to come.
Denis
1) As long as the banks are involved in real estate transactions which they know nothing about, it probably won't end for years to come. These banks are unbelievable. They just sent us a short sale package back saying that the word "Phoenix" was abbreviated "Phx" and it need to be spelling out on the listing contract. Once it was corrected, it took them two weeks to come back and demand that all parties sign the listing contract. Say what? Since when does a buyer get to look at listing contracts between the seller and broker?
Problems like this one are occurring every day. Yes, I wonder too, when will it end?
2) It will end when the large prevelent foreclosures and short sales end. I agree with (above), each bank/company has their own rules for these properties. It is not a matter of understanding how to deal with the foreclosure, because it is almost impossible to learn all the different rules.
3) Good question! I definitely agree with both (of the above), but would add that until unemployment abates and jobs open up or are created, we will continue to have issues.
4) There is also the perception by consumers that the market is in complete disarray and they are waiting for it to return to "normal." There are almost no buyers in the market because they think prices will continue to drop. Potential sellers know they are going to take a beating if they try to sell. They all think that, at some point, the market will return to where it was. Until consumers realize that this, in many ways, is the new normal, buyers and sellers will continue to sit on the sidelines.
Then there is the issue of financing. But I'll leave that for another commenter.
ED Comment: These are the views of four Realtors that offer reflection of where the market is and when will we see some stability return. "Normal" is not a return to our past, it is where we are today and for the foreseeable future. If you are sitting on the fence, waiting will not provide a better time to act for several years to come.
Denis
Monday, June 7, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends
Realty Times of June 7, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends by Kenneth R. Harney
Positive news on housing and real estate keep rolling in -- thanks in large part to federal home purchase tax credits and continuing near-record low mortgage rates.
Last week's pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors illustrates the trend: Pending contracts jumped for the third straight month -- up by six percent in April -- and now stand 22 percent higher than the year before.
Every region but one -- the South -- racked up sizable gains in transactions heading for settlement. Contracts in the Northeast were up by nearly 30 percent for the month. In the West, they rose nearly eight percent, and in the Midwest the gain was about four percent.
The South's pending sales were less than one percent off from the previous month, but are still an impressive 31 percent above where they were 12 months before.
Home prices also appear to be moving on an upward curve, according to the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index -- which tracks price movements in thousands of local markets and Zip codes.
Clear Capital's national report for the month of May found prices up by 6.8 percent year over year.
Consumer confidence is definitely powering some of these sales and price numbers, economists say. The Conference Board's index for consumer confidence in May rose by five points -- a good sign for consumers' willingness to spend money.
Lynn Franco, who directs the Conference Board's survey research center, noted that the "expectations" component of the index was particularly strong -- and is now at its highest point in nearly three years.
According to Franco, consumers' previous fears about the job market, incomes and the overall economy have been on the decline for a couple of months now.
Meanwhile, mortgage giant Fannie Mae released its latest economic projections for the rest of the year. Chief economist Doug Duncan says he sees a "self-sustaining economic recovery" gradually taking shape -- again good news for housing.
Of course, not all the latest numbers on real estate are upbeat. They never are. Now a closely watched index tied to likely new home purchase offers two to three months down the road has gone negative. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new loan applications declined again for the third straight week, and now is at its lowest point in 14 years.
What's going on here? Most likely its the tax credits. The April 30 deadline for signed contracts for the two tax credit programs -- and the phaseout of the entire credit program June 30 -- are definitely pushing loan applications down.
As we said last week, the credits -- which are part of the federal stimulus efforts -- pushed many purchasers to move up their transactions to the first half of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the underlying strength of the economic recovery should allow sales and loan applications to recover in the second half, without any need for additional federal help.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Real Estate Outlook: Positive Trends by Kenneth R. Harney
Positive news on housing and real estate keep rolling in -- thanks in large part to federal home purchase tax credits and continuing near-record low mortgage rates.
Last week's pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors illustrates the trend: Pending contracts jumped for the third straight month -- up by six percent in April -- and now stand 22 percent higher than the year before.
Every region but one -- the South -- racked up sizable gains in transactions heading for settlement. Contracts in the Northeast were up by nearly 30 percent for the month. In the West, they rose nearly eight percent, and in the Midwest the gain was about four percent.
The South's pending sales were less than one percent off from the previous month, but are still an impressive 31 percent above where they were 12 months before.
Home prices also appear to be moving on an upward curve, according to the latest Clear Capital Home Data Index -- which tracks price movements in thousands of local markets and Zip codes.
Clear Capital's national report for the month of May found prices up by 6.8 percent year over year.
Consumer confidence is definitely powering some of these sales and price numbers, economists say. The Conference Board's index for consumer confidence in May rose by five points -- a good sign for consumers' willingness to spend money.
Lynn Franco, who directs the Conference Board's survey research center, noted that the "expectations" component of the index was particularly strong -- and is now at its highest point in nearly three years.
According to Franco, consumers' previous fears about the job market, incomes and the overall economy have been on the decline for a couple of months now.
Meanwhile, mortgage giant Fannie Mae released its latest economic projections for the rest of the year. Chief economist Doug Duncan says he sees a "self-sustaining economic recovery" gradually taking shape -- again good news for housing.
Of course, not all the latest numbers on real estate are upbeat. They never are. Now a closely watched index tied to likely new home purchase offers two to three months down the road has gone negative. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of new loan applications declined again for the third straight week, and now is at its lowest point in 14 years.
What's going on here? Most likely its the tax credits. The April 30 deadline for signed contracts for the two tax credit programs -- and the phaseout of the entire credit program June 30 -- are definitely pushing loan applications down.
As we said last week, the credits -- which are part of the federal stimulus efforts -- pushed many purchasers to move up their transactions to the first half of the year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the underlying strength of the economic recovery should allow sales and loan applications to recover in the second half, without any need for additional federal help.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Market Conditions
Realty Times of December 1, 2009
Market Conditions
Existing home sales have shown promising figures, as first-time buyers take advantage of the buyer tax credit and historically low interest rates.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. "Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November," he said. "With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer."
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.6 percent to an annual level of 1.06 million in October, and are 27.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $235,400, down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest surged 14.4 percent. The median price in the Midwest was $146,600, a gain of 1.1 percent from October 2008, the only region seeing a gain in median price.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 12.7 percent to an annual level of 2.30 million in October and are 25.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the South was $151,100, down 6.3 percent from a year ago.
The smallest increase in existing-home sales was seen in the West, which increased just 1.6. However, this number is a healthy 12.0 percent above a year ago. Home prices are still down for the region.
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Source: NAR
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Market Conditions
Existing home sales have shown promising figures, as first-time buyers take advantage of the buyer tax credit and historically low interest rates.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.10 million units in October from a downwardly revised pace of 5.54 million in September, and are 23.5 percent above the 4.94 million-unit level in October 2008. Sales activity is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, was surprised at the size of the gain. "Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for the first-time buyer tax credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November," he said. "With such a sale spike, a measurable decline should be anticipated in December and early next year before another surge in spring and early summer."
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.6 percent to an annual level of 1.06 million in October, and are 27.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $235,400, down 2.6 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest surged 14.4 percent. The median price in the Midwest was $146,600, a gain of 1.1 percent from October 2008, the only region seeing a gain in median price.
In the South, existing-home sales rose 12.7 percent to an annual level of 2.30 million in October and are 25.7 percent higher than October 2008. The median price in the South was $151,100, down 6.3 percent from a year ago.
The smallest increase in existing-home sales was seen in the West, which increased just 1.6. However, this number is a healthy 12.0 percent above a year ago. Home prices are still down for the region.
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Source: NAR
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Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Real Estate Market Conditions
Realty Times of June 30, 2009
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff
The National Association of Realtors is reporting that May saw a gain in the sale of existing homes -- up by 2.4 percent.
Regionally, existing-home sales varied:
Northeast: rose 3.9 percent
Midwest: rose 9.0 percent
South: unchanged
West: down 0.9 percent
Are we out of the woods? Dr. Lawrence Yun said the appraisal problem is serious. "Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales," he said. "In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected."
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff
The National Association of Realtors is reporting that May saw a gain in the sale of existing homes -- up by 2.4 percent.
Regionally, existing-home sales varied:
Northeast: rose 3.9 percent
Midwest: rose 9.0 percent
South: unchanged
West: down 0.9 percent
Are we out of the woods? Dr. Lawrence Yun said the appraisal problem is serious. "Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales," he said. "In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected."
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, June 8, 2009
Arizona Home Market
I spoke with 3 of the large Title Companies this last week All told basically the same story -
May closing were 3 times the April closings!
Urban legend or is it happening?
May closing were 3 times the April closings!
Urban legend or is it happening?
Friday, May 8, 2009
Phoenix in the middle of recovery
Realty Times of May 8, 2009
Hot Market: Phoenix in the middle of recovery by M. Anthony Carr
A year ago, I covered the Phoenix market in this column, saying that comparing April '08 to April '07, it looked like this western market had hit bottom – sales were up 15 percent year-over-year. That prediction, seems to have been right on the nose as nearly 12 months later, sales are up a whopping 78 percent from March 2008 to March 2009.
With listings down 17 percent for the metro area, sales are siphoning off inventory and buyers are picking deals at prices they haven't seen in more than 5 years, according to blogger Ron Wilczek, West USA Realty "Another notable fact is that the year over year (YOY) sales are up for the 10th consecutive month," blogs Wilczek. "One more notable fact: the year over year over year (YOYOY) sales are up for the fourth consecutive month. I admit that I "made up" that last statistical category. But essentially it means that the sales in March 2009, February 2009, January 2009 and December 2008 were all higher than the same months for the last two years."
The foreclosure sale dominates the market, but may be a necessary evil to jump-start one of the largest markets in the southwest. Wilczek says foreclosure sales make up more than 75 percent for March 2009.
"Though March's percentage was a slight increase from February 2009's, the percentage of Phoenix foreclosure sales (Valley wide) has remained relatively stable over the last three months," he says. "This is a change from the trend we saw starting in June 2007 and lasting until December 2008. Foreclosure properties during that time sold at a steadily increasing rate each month -- sometimes by a substantial amount."
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Hot Market: Phoenix in the middle of recovery by M. Anthony Carr
A year ago, I covered the Phoenix market in this column, saying that comparing April '08 to April '07, it looked like this western market had hit bottom – sales were up 15 percent year-over-year. That prediction, seems to have been right on the nose as nearly 12 months later, sales are up a whopping 78 percent from March 2008 to March 2009.
With listings down 17 percent for the metro area, sales are siphoning off inventory and buyers are picking deals at prices they haven't seen in more than 5 years, according to blogger Ron Wilczek, West USA Realty "Another notable fact is that the year over year (YOY) sales are up for the 10th consecutive month," blogs Wilczek. "One more notable fact: the year over year over year (YOYOY) sales are up for the fourth consecutive month. I admit that I "made up" that last statistical category. But essentially it means that the sales in March 2009, February 2009, January 2009 and December 2008 were all higher than the same months for the last two years."
The foreclosure sale dominates the market, but may be a necessary evil to jump-start one of the largest markets in the southwest. Wilczek says foreclosure sales make up more than 75 percent for March 2009.
"Though March's percentage was a slight increase from February 2009's, the percentage of Phoenix foreclosure sales (Valley wide) has remained relatively stable over the last three months," he says. "This is a change from the trend we saw starting in June 2007 and lasting until December 2008. Foreclosure properties during that time sold at a steadily increasing rate each month -- sometimes by a substantial amount."
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money
From Realty Times of January 13, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money by Kenneth R. Harney
Is the economic glass half empty or half full?
Talk to different groups of forecasters and you get different answers, but basically a similar consensus: The national recession is likely to drag on for another four to six months, but by mid-year we should be moving into a slow-growth rebound mode, digging out of recession.
A new poll of 50 top business economists conducted by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, found a mildly upbeat general outlook -- especially if the economic stimulus package being prepared by the incoming Obama administration and the new Congress cuts taxes, stimulates housing sales, lowers mortgage rates, and reverses job losses as the year moves on.
Randell Moore, the head of Blue Chip Indicators, which conducts monthly economic surveys, said "the consensus (is that) we are in the deepest part of the recession (right) now. But the stimulus package and lower gasoline prices are expected to … restore consumer confidence and personal spending -- and that will put us on the road back."
The Federal Reserve released its own forecast, based on discussions at its December board meeting: Expect negative growth through the late Spring, a slow recovery thereafter.
What about housing and real estate?
The latest pending home sales survey by the National Association of Realtors, covering the month of November, was down. But think back to the prevailing mindset back in October and November - some of the biggest jitters and panic on Wall Street in recent history, plus worries about the financial safety of the banking system.
Who would expect people to rush out and sign home purchase contracts with the entire economy in earthquake mode and consumer confidence plummeting?
Today, by contrast, the outlook is VERY different. We're on the verge of getting an economic shot in the arm from a giant stimulus package -- some of which will likely directly target home sales, possibly with tax credits.
Mortgage interest rates are at almost unprecedented lows -- five percent and even below if you've got a downpayment and decent credit. Applications for new mortgages to buy houses were up by more than 7 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey -- up 2.3 percent for those seeking conventional loans and up an amazing 19.2 percent for buyers planning to use FHA financing.
As the saying goes: Follow the money. There's something important stirring out there. Home prices are at 2004 levels in many markets. Buyers who can qualify are seeing real, tangible opportunities….and that dynamic, along with help from the stimulus package, should begin turning around housing even before the economy as a whole.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money by Kenneth R. Harney
Is the economic glass half empty or half full?
Talk to different groups of forecasters and you get different answers, but basically a similar consensus: The national recession is likely to drag on for another four to six months, but by mid-year we should be moving into a slow-growth rebound mode, digging out of recession.
A new poll of 50 top business economists conducted by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, found a mildly upbeat general outlook -- especially if the economic stimulus package being prepared by the incoming Obama administration and the new Congress cuts taxes, stimulates housing sales, lowers mortgage rates, and reverses job losses as the year moves on.
Randell Moore, the head of Blue Chip Indicators, which conducts monthly economic surveys, said "the consensus (is that) we are in the deepest part of the recession (right) now. But the stimulus package and lower gasoline prices are expected to … restore consumer confidence and personal spending -- and that will put us on the road back."
The Federal Reserve released its own forecast, based on discussions at its December board meeting: Expect negative growth through the late Spring, a slow recovery thereafter.
What about housing and real estate?
The latest pending home sales survey by the National Association of Realtors, covering the month of November, was down. But think back to the prevailing mindset back in October and November - some of the biggest jitters and panic on Wall Street in recent history, plus worries about the financial safety of the banking system.
Who would expect people to rush out and sign home purchase contracts with the entire economy in earthquake mode and consumer confidence plummeting?
Today, by contrast, the outlook is VERY different. We're on the verge of getting an economic shot in the arm from a giant stimulus package -- some of which will likely directly target home sales, possibly with tax credits.
Mortgage interest rates are at almost unprecedented lows -- five percent and even below if you've got a downpayment and decent credit. Applications for new mortgages to buy houses were up by more than 7 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey -- up 2.3 percent for those seeking conventional loans and up an amazing 19.2 percent for buyers planning to use FHA financing.
As the saying goes: Follow the money. There's something important stirring out there. Home prices are at 2004 levels in many markets. Buyers who can qualify are seeing real, tangible opportunities….and that dynamic, along with help from the stimulus package, should begin turning around housing even before the economy as a whole.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
POSITIVE THOUGHTS
Ken Harney has provided many good articles through the Realty Times. Here is his view on the 2009 Outlook.
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Real Estate Outlook: What's in Store for 2009?
January 6, 2009 by Kenneth R. Harney
What will the new year bring for housing and real estate? It's easy to look at all the negative economic news in the headlines and say - there's no sign that 2009 is going to be any better than 2008.
But here's a different perspective to consider from one of the country's veteran financial analysts -- Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, the investment banking company.
In a research report issued late in December, Bove said he sees a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle. The government has intervened aggressively in the markets to push interest rates down -- most notably in the home mortgage sector.
Though it takes awhile for low-cost money to begin having its effect, Bove said he expects “housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase.”
Add in the expected massive economic stimulus package being put together on Capitol Hill with the incoming Obama administration -- and there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.
Already there are positive signs of the turnaround Bove predicts:
Mortgage applications are off the charts, mainly for refis but also to buy houses at affordable prices.
Rates continue to hover at 50-year lows - five percent and even four and three quarters percent for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15 and 20 year mortgage terms.
Plus we're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.
And guess what? Americans are actually SAVING again, the national savings rate took a nearly three percent jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.
There are also some signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices UP by six-tenths of a percent in the Mountain states and UP by two tenths of a percent in New England.
You can ridicule small regional gains as statistically irrelevant, but here's Realty Times's economic proposal to you for the New Year: Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all downcycles tail off and come to an end.
We think the smartest players in real estate -- consumers and the industry - will make the most of the positives -- low-cost money, low prices, stabilizing local markets -- and thrive in the new year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
We hope that 2009 will indeed be the turnaround - a little optimism helps!
.
----------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: What's in Store for 2009?
January 6, 2009 by Kenneth R. Harney
What will the new year bring for housing and real estate? It's easy to look at all the negative economic news in the headlines and say - there's no sign that 2009 is going to be any better than 2008.
But here's a different perspective to consider from one of the country's veteran financial analysts -- Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, the investment banking company.
In a research report issued late in December, Bove said he sees a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle. The government has intervened aggressively in the markets to push interest rates down -- most notably in the home mortgage sector.
Though it takes awhile for low-cost money to begin having its effect, Bove said he expects “housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase.”
Add in the expected massive economic stimulus package being put together on Capitol Hill with the incoming Obama administration -- and there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.
Already there are positive signs of the turnaround Bove predicts:
Mortgage applications are off the charts, mainly for refis but also to buy houses at affordable prices.
Rates continue to hover at 50-year lows - five percent and even four and three quarters percent for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15 and 20 year mortgage terms.
Plus we're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.
And guess what? Americans are actually SAVING again, the national savings rate took a nearly three percent jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.
There are also some signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices UP by six-tenths of a percent in the Mountain states and UP by two tenths of a percent in New England.
You can ridicule small regional gains as statistically irrelevant, but here's Realty Times's economic proposal to you for the New Year: Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all downcycles tail off and come to an end.
We think the smartest players in real estate -- consumers and the industry - will make the most of the positives -- low-cost money, low prices, stabilizing local markets -- and thrive in the new year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
We hope that 2009 will indeed be the turnaround - a little optimism helps!
.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
December 16, 2008
from Realty Times
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Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
by Kenneth R. Harney
How you see the real estate market at the moment depends on what parts you look at. If you focus primarily on mortgage rates and core affordability measures, you may see the country in a recession, but there are some very positive forces at work in the housing sector.
On the other hand, if you look at widespread employment losses -- 530,000 last month alone -- along with rising personal and business bankruptcies, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at levels not seen since the 1930's, you might ask: How can housing rebound if the overall economy is mired in such a mess?
And of course housing can't bounce back significantly unless national and regional economic fundamentals begin to improve. But there's at least an outside chance that housing could help in that whole process -- and begin to get healthier as a result.
Here's why: Number one -- affordability has dramatically improved since the end of the boom.
Thanks to severe price rollbacks and near-record low interest rates, homes are more affordable to households with average incomes than they've been for almost a decade. Standard and Poor's economist David Wyss calls affordability a major bright spot, and that's confirmed by the Housing Affordability Index compiled by the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates are an important part of that equation, and they dropped again last week -- this time below five and half percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Add onto this the Treasury Department's reported plan to cut fixed mortgage rates for home purchasers to four and a half percent through a "buy-down" program, and you've got the potential underpinnings for serious increases in home buying just over the horizon.
Some economists project an increase in sales of 500,000 to 700,000 homes in the coming 12 months if mortgage rates are cut by a point, AND if the new Congress agrees to include a non-refundable tax credit of up to 10 percent of the purchase price of a home in the economic stimulus package expected in January.
The idea here is to stoke up housing sales and construction -- and dozens of other industries through housing's well-documented multiplier effect -- the stimulus it gives through ripple effects into building materials, appliances, furniture among others.
This has worked before. Congress took precisely these two steps -- interest rate reductions plus tax credits for home purchases - in the 1970s, and the program had far-reaching positive effects on jobs and the economy as a whole.
It could happen again -- even if, on any given day, the picture looks a little grim.
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Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Mortgage rates in the Phoenix area hit below 6% APR last week - still waiting?
.
from Realty Times
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Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
by Kenneth R. Harney
How you see the real estate market at the moment depends on what parts you look at. If you focus primarily on mortgage rates and core affordability measures, you may see the country in a recession, but there are some very positive forces at work in the housing sector.
On the other hand, if you look at widespread employment losses -- 530,000 last month alone -- along with rising personal and business bankruptcies, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at levels not seen since the 1930's, you might ask: How can housing rebound if the overall economy is mired in such a mess?
And of course housing can't bounce back significantly unless national and regional economic fundamentals begin to improve. But there's at least an outside chance that housing could help in that whole process -- and begin to get healthier as a result.
Here's why: Number one -- affordability has dramatically improved since the end of the boom.
Thanks to severe price rollbacks and near-record low interest rates, homes are more affordable to households with average incomes than they've been for almost a decade. Standard and Poor's economist David Wyss calls affordability a major bright spot, and that's confirmed by the Housing Affordability Index compiled by the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates are an important part of that equation, and they dropped again last week -- this time below five and half percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Add onto this the Treasury Department's reported plan to cut fixed mortgage rates for home purchasers to four and a half percent through a "buy-down" program, and you've got the potential underpinnings for serious increases in home buying just over the horizon.
Some economists project an increase in sales of 500,000 to 700,000 homes in the coming 12 months if mortgage rates are cut by a point, AND if the new Congress agrees to include a non-refundable tax credit of up to 10 percent of the purchase price of a home in the economic stimulus package expected in January.
The idea here is to stoke up housing sales and construction -- and dozens of other industries through housing's well-documented multiplier effect -- the stimulus it gives through ripple effects into building materials, appliances, furniture among others.
This has worked before. Congress took precisely these two steps -- interest rate reductions plus tax credits for home purchases - in the 1970s, and the program had far-reaching positive effects on jobs and the economy as a whole.
It could happen again -- even if, on any given day, the picture looks a little grim.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Mortgage rates in the Phoenix area hit below 6% APR last week - still waiting?
.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Buyers Go West for Good Deals
From Realty Times of October 17, 2008
Hot Market: Buyers Go West for Good Deals by M. Anthony Carr
You've heard the news that pending sales are up across the country over 7 percent from July to August. While that's the broad brush news, when looking at the details, one sees just how many states in the West are experiencing a huge surge in the number of sales being registered on real estate boards across the region.
Following the trends over the last two quarters, it should be no surprise that the real estate market across the country is slowly beginning to show signs of life. The National Association of Realtors, keeper of national realty sales data, has been releasing the numbers all year of state after state experiencing very healthy sales increases from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter.
Leading the way is Idaho, with a 51 percent jump between the two quarters. California was up 25.8 percent followed closely by Nevada at 25 percent. The fourth strongest statewide market was Arizona, up by 20.5 percent.
The only two states to show a quarter over quarter increase from 2nd quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2008 was California, up 3.7% and Nevada surging forward at 18 percent.
When news hit about this latest sales increase of 7.4 percent, hidden, again, in the fine print was the fact that sales year over year in the west had jumped a whopping 37 percent. The challenge facing markets now, of course, is the current credit crisis, which will determine if the trends of upward bound sales will continue.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Biggest concern now, is it getting too crowded out here? We are projected to double in population in only a decade or two from now!
.
Hot Market: Buyers Go West for Good Deals by M. Anthony Carr
You've heard the news that pending sales are up across the country over 7 percent from July to August. While that's the broad brush news, when looking at the details, one sees just how many states in the West are experiencing a huge surge in the number of sales being registered on real estate boards across the region.
Following the trends over the last two quarters, it should be no surprise that the real estate market across the country is slowly beginning to show signs of life. The National Association of Realtors, keeper of national realty sales data, has been releasing the numbers all year of state after state experiencing very healthy sales increases from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter.
Leading the way is Idaho, with a 51 percent jump between the two quarters. California was up 25.8 percent followed closely by Nevada at 25 percent. The fourth strongest statewide market was Arizona, up by 20.5 percent.
The only two states to show a quarter over quarter increase from 2nd quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2008 was California, up 3.7% and Nevada surging forward at 18 percent.
When news hit about this latest sales increase of 7.4 percent, hidden, again, in the fine print was the fact that sales year over year in the west had jumped a whopping 37 percent. The challenge facing markets now, of course, is the current credit crisis, which will determine if the trends of upward bound sales will continue.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Biggest concern now, is it getting too crowded out here? We are projected to double in population in only a decade or two from now!
.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Market Conditions
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff October 10, 2008
The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
.
The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Market Conditions & Total Mortgages in U.S.
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff October 7, 2008
It appears that with the recent final woes in the nation and on Wall Street, the Dow fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2004 in the first hour on Monday, many consumers are holding back on their spending.
Even before the latest ailing markets, reports indicated that August had been the weakest for consumer spending in six months. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending was unchanged in August -- not a positive sign in an economy that needs jumpstarted.
The New York times reports that cutbacks seem to be across the board, from the automobile industry to fashion to restaurants. "Less than a month ago, Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at Global Insight, a forecasting service, predicted that domestic economic output would rise 1.2 percent in the third quarter." This number is currently closer to zero percent.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Some numbers heard on the radio. 95% of all mortgages are current and being paid every month. There are $14 Trillion total mortgages in the U.S. Thus 5% or $700 Billion are of concern. Interesting number, $700 Billion. Hmmmmm.
.
It appears that with the recent final woes in the nation and on Wall Street, the Dow fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2004 in the first hour on Monday, many consumers are holding back on their spending.
Even before the latest ailing markets, reports indicated that August had been the weakest for consumer spending in six months. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending was unchanged in August -- not a positive sign in an economy that needs jumpstarted.
The New York times reports that cutbacks seem to be across the board, from the automobile industry to fashion to restaurants. "Less than a month ago, Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at Global Insight, a forecasting service, predicted that domestic economic output would rise 1.2 percent in the third quarter." This number is currently closer to zero percent.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Some numbers heard on the radio. 95% of all mortgages are current and being paid every month. There are $14 Trillion total mortgages in the U.S. Thus 5% or $700 Billion are of concern. Interesting number, $700 Billion. Hmmmmm.
.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
MARKET CONDITIONS
From Realty Times:
Market Conditions
by Realty Times Staff
When the government decided to place Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into its conservatorship, it opened up many different possible avenues the heal the ailing giants.
The New York Times reports that there haven't been any specific proposals made by lawmakers to date on what to do -- but in one option, some lawmaker "favors restoring the companies to health and then returning them to the way they were before they went into conservatorship, but with safeguards to prevent another crisis."
This seems a much milder approach than free-market theorists who favor a liquidation of the companies.
National Association of Realtors President, Richard Gaylord, issued the statement: "I commend Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Lockhart for their bold actions to bring stability and continued liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have always played a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners. Their critical mission must not be interrupted, and Sunday’s announcement goes a long way in making sure that does not happen."
Many experts hope that with this takeover will come restored confidence and more movement in the mortgage markets -- and maybe more affordable housing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Market Conditions
by Realty Times Staff
When the government decided to place Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into its conservatorship, it opened up many different possible avenues the heal the ailing giants.
The New York Times reports that there haven't been any specific proposals made by lawmakers to date on what to do -- but in one option, some lawmaker "favors restoring the companies to health and then returning them to the way they were before they went into conservatorship, but with safeguards to prevent another crisis."
This seems a much milder approach than free-market theorists who favor a liquidation of the companies.
National Association of Realtors President, Richard Gaylord, issued the statement: "I commend Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Lockhart for their bold actions to bring stability and continued liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have always played a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners. Their critical mission must not be interrupted, and Sunday’s announcement goes a long way in making sure that does not happen."
Many experts hope that with this takeover will come restored confidence and more movement in the mortgage markets -- and maybe more affordable housing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
From the September 9, 2008 REALTY TIMES:
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
by Kenneth R. Harney
The latest national economic growth numbers should finally put to rest fears of a recession that could choke the real estate recovery now getting underway.
Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) came in at an upwardly-revised 3.3 percent -- far above the 1.9 percent the federal government had previously estimated.
Key reasons for the robust economic performance: Exports, which have been riding the weak dollar to record levels, and lower imports because the prices of foreign-made goods have been priced higher.
Why should anyone interested in real estate care about GDP? Well, number one, when the economic growth rate accelerates, consumer confidence in the economy rises. That, in turn, pulls potential buyers off the sidelines and opens the door to higher housing sales.
And sure enough, the consumer confidence numbers for August, released last week by the Conference Board, are up by 5 points.
We're already seeing some impressive jumps in home sales in places that haven't seen positive news in two to three years -- central Florida and even some of the hardest-hit parts of California. According to a new report from the real estate tracking firm, DataQuick, sales in southern California jumped 16.7 percent in July over June, and were 14 percent above the pace of July the year before.
Another encouraging sign: Last week's mortgage rates dropped to 6.39 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen year rates are still just under 6 percent. Applications for loans to buy homes jumped by 6 percent for conventional loans and an impressive 19.9 percent for FHA mortgages.
The federal government's latest quarterly survey on home prices reveals that the best price appreciation performances are now coming from areas that barely got noticed during the hottest years of the housing boom -- markets like Charleston, West Virginia ( up 6 percent for the year), Greenville, South Carolina (up 5.8 percent), Tulsa, Oklahoma (up by nearly 5 percent) and Scranton, Pennsylvania, where values were up by 4.7 percent..
All these markets -- and there are dozens more spread through Texas, the Midwest and the South -- never experienced the wild days of double digit appreciation.
They offer affordable housing prices and moderate - but steady and slow - price growth. They're not flashy -- never have been, probably never will be -- but that's why they're still producing positive appreciation numbers, while the boom to bust markets are not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
There are some who feel that the numbers on which this article is based are not really correct - that the Feds are leaving out some things that would negatively effect the GDP. October may give us a better indicator and hopefully still support the premise that the Recession is no longer a concern.
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
by Kenneth R. Harney
The latest national economic growth numbers should finally put to rest fears of a recession that could choke the real estate recovery now getting underway.
Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) came in at an upwardly-revised 3.3 percent -- far above the 1.9 percent the federal government had previously estimated.
Key reasons for the robust economic performance: Exports, which have been riding the weak dollar to record levels, and lower imports because the prices of foreign-made goods have been priced higher.
Why should anyone interested in real estate care about GDP? Well, number one, when the economic growth rate accelerates, consumer confidence in the economy rises. That, in turn, pulls potential buyers off the sidelines and opens the door to higher housing sales.
And sure enough, the consumer confidence numbers for August, released last week by the Conference Board, are up by 5 points.
We're already seeing some impressive jumps in home sales in places that haven't seen positive news in two to three years -- central Florida and even some of the hardest-hit parts of California. According to a new report from the real estate tracking firm, DataQuick, sales in southern California jumped 16.7 percent in July over June, and were 14 percent above the pace of July the year before.
Another encouraging sign: Last week's mortgage rates dropped to 6.39 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen year rates are still just under 6 percent. Applications for loans to buy homes jumped by 6 percent for conventional loans and an impressive 19.9 percent for FHA mortgages.
The federal government's latest quarterly survey on home prices reveals that the best price appreciation performances are now coming from areas that barely got noticed during the hottest years of the housing boom -- markets like Charleston, West Virginia ( up 6 percent for the year), Greenville, South Carolina (up 5.8 percent), Tulsa, Oklahoma (up by nearly 5 percent) and Scranton, Pennsylvania, where values were up by 4.7 percent..
All these markets -- and there are dozens more spread through Texas, the Midwest and the South -- never experienced the wild days of double digit appreciation.
They offer affordable housing prices and moderate - but steady and slow - price growth. They're not flashy -- never have been, probably never will be -- but that's why they're still producing positive appreciation numbers, while the boom to bust markets are not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
There are some who feel that the numbers on which this article is based are not really correct - that the Feds are leaving out some things that would negatively effect the GDP. October may give us a better indicator and hopefully still support the premise that the Recession is no longer a concern.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Resales Up, Rate Dip
An article from Realty Times.com:
"Take the latest home resale report: Sales were up by 2 percent nationally in May, and up 5.5 in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the Northeast".
Real Estate Outlook
That's the good news - now read the rest of the article.
Ah, for the good old days of 2005.
Good old days? But 2005 was only 3 very loooooooong years ago!
"Take the latest home resale report: Sales were up by 2 percent nationally in May, and up 5.5 in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the Northeast".
That's the good news - now read the rest of the article.
Ah, for the good old days of 2005.
Good old days? But 2005 was only 3 very loooooooong years ago!
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
The latest projection from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors®:
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
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