From Realty Times of May 17, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: Up or Down? by Kenneth R. Harney
You may have seen the latest home sales and price numbers and wondered: What's going on here? Are we up? Are we down?
Depending on which TV network reported the news last week, it sounded either like real estate is continuing along its steady road to recovery - -or that we just hit a pothole in the road.
One major business news channel reported it this way: "Home sales down 14 percent in the first quarter." Other media reported an 11 percent GAIN.
So what is it?
Well, dig down into the actual numbers from the National Association of Realtors and you find that, yes, 2010 first quarter home sales were 14 percent lower than they were in the final quarter of 2009.
Home sales nationwide, however, in the first quarter of 2010 were 11.4 percent higher than they were during the same quarter the year before. And any economist will tell you: year to year comparisons are more meaningful than quarter to quarter data, which tend to be more volatile.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, pointed out that sales in the fourth quarter of last year were unusually high because of a surge of closings related to the original expiration date of the housing tax credit.
We can probably expect a similar surge to show up some time in the coming two quarters caused by sales closings before the June 30 termination date of the credit program.
The 11 percent year over year gain is a much more reliable gauge of where the market really is, says Yun -- and that's a very healthy trajectory because consumers have more confidence in the economy, are spending more, and mortgage rates remain near all-time lows.
Gains in prices year over year in local markets are especially encouraging: Of the 152 metropolitan statistical areas surveyed by the National Association of Realtors, median prices in 91 were higher than the year before. Though most of the gains were in single digits, 29 markets saw median price increases in double digits.
Economists say the price and sales gains reflect the improvements underway in the overall US economy. The latest federal employment numbers saw a 290,000 net job increase in March, plus a drop in new filings for unemployment insurance claims.
Manufacturing jobs are expanding again, after years of declines, and the Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) is up by more than 3 percent.
In the words of Freddie Mac's chief economist, Frank Nothaft, "the underlying fundamentals for housing markets are improving rapidly" -- and should continue to do so through 2010.
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Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Showing posts with label NAR forecasts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NAR forecasts. Show all posts
Monday, May 17, 2010
Friday, April 10, 2009
Housing Most Affordable
Realty Times of April 10, 2009
Housing Most Affordable: May be Time to Move from Renting to Owning
by Phoebe Chongchua
Falling housing prices, historically low interest rates, and tax credits are creating an enticing environment for renters to convert to homeowners.
"We are still going to have a tremendous amount of foreclosures, price declines, and best opportunities to buy properties at amazing prices," says Bruce Norris of The Norris Group.
If that sounds like a mixed bag of bad and good, indeed it is. Consumers have been inundated with news about a troubled real estate market. "If you look at the closings for California, 55 percent or more closings every month are lender-owned properties; that ratio has never existed before. So, the lenders are really dictating the prices at this point and there are so many lender-owned properties that the appraiser almost has no choice but to give that comp a lot of credence," says Norris. But the good news, especially for those who have been wanting to take the plunge into homeownership is that markets across the country are ripe for choosing the most suitable home.
"The affordability has never been this high. So, in relationship to income, California is the cheapest it's ever been. The fact that prices will still go down kind of means nothing to the person who is going to live in a house for quite a long time -- partly because the interest rates are also historically low," says Norris.
He points to his own daughter as an example. She is getting married this year and buying her own house for the first time.
"I think it's a very bright decision. Do I think her neighborhood might go down for another year-and-a-half, yeah—and to that I say, who cares! She's tying up an interest rate that's probably under 5 percent for 30 years and that may be the real bargain," says Norris.
Her fiancé owns a home but Norris and the couple agreed that her buying a home now is a good opportunity. So after the couple marries they will live in the home in order to receive maximum financial benefits. His daughter is using an FHA loan and putting $4,000 down on a $110,000 California home that was, at the height of the real estate boom worth, $330,000. She will then get a federal tax credit for $8,000 and she can receive that money (in as few as 10 days) now rather than waiting until she files her 2009 tax return. Best of all, the mortgage payment is less than it would cost to rent.
This is a trend that is playing out in many areas across the country. "Fortunately, the interest rates are national so you have that incredible interest rate that is forcing the mortgage payment below rent in many locations, including California. So the area that my daughter is buying in, her rent would be $1,100 and her mortgage payment is going to be about $825," says Norris.
Norris says that, coupled with the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, is making renters weigh their options, "It really is an inducement for people to go from being a renter to an owner."
"There are lots of areas that didn't go up as much as California. Let's pick an area, Texas, for instance, you have houses selling for $110,000 to $120,000 range and the rents there are also pretty high--$1,100 - $1,200 or so—so payments there are also a lot less if they own it," says Norris.
"It's most affordable right now, so you would think that everybody would want in, but real estate right now has a lot of fear attached to it and a lot of uncertainty about jobs," says Norris.
Some markets such as California are working to help alleviate barriers to home ownership. The California Association of Realtors in April introduced the Housing Affordability Fund's Mortgage Protection Program. There are specific eligibility requirements; talk to your Realtor for details.
"People who buy property in 2009 have a safety blanket now of six months of up to $1,500 payments per month that the California Association of Realtors, out of some fund that it has, will pay the people's payments," says Norris. He adds, "I've never heard anything like it."
Norris says while these programs to entice renters to become buyers are attractive, he says make sure you're ready to buy. He says there are specific habits that you should have in place before buying a home.
"You should already have developed a savings habit and you're ready to buy a home because you have a little bit of money left over in case something goes wrong," says Norris.
Another affirming reason to move from renting to buying comes from statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California.
The company reports that 50 percent of the 76 metropolitan area markets across the U.S. that are tracked show that people can buy a house (after tax cost of homeownership considered) for less than they could rent one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Housing Most Affordable: May be Time to Move from Renting to Owning
by Phoebe Chongchua
Falling housing prices, historically low interest rates, and tax credits are creating an enticing environment for renters to convert to homeowners.
"We are still going to have a tremendous amount of foreclosures, price declines, and best opportunities to buy properties at amazing prices," says Bruce Norris of The Norris Group.
If that sounds like a mixed bag of bad and good, indeed it is. Consumers have been inundated with news about a troubled real estate market. "If you look at the closings for California, 55 percent or more closings every month are lender-owned properties; that ratio has never existed before. So, the lenders are really dictating the prices at this point and there are so many lender-owned properties that the appraiser almost has no choice but to give that comp a lot of credence," says Norris. But the good news, especially for those who have been wanting to take the plunge into homeownership is that markets across the country are ripe for choosing the most suitable home.
"The affordability has never been this high. So, in relationship to income, California is the cheapest it's ever been. The fact that prices will still go down kind of means nothing to the person who is going to live in a house for quite a long time -- partly because the interest rates are also historically low," says Norris.
He points to his own daughter as an example. She is getting married this year and buying her own house for the first time.
"I think it's a very bright decision. Do I think her neighborhood might go down for another year-and-a-half, yeah—and to that I say, who cares! She's tying up an interest rate that's probably under 5 percent for 30 years and that may be the real bargain," says Norris.
Her fiancé owns a home but Norris and the couple agreed that her buying a home now is a good opportunity. So after the couple marries they will live in the home in order to receive maximum financial benefits. His daughter is using an FHA loan and putting $4,000 down on a $110,000 California home that was, at the height of the real estate boom worth, $330,000. She will then get a federal tax credit for $8,000 and she can receive that money (in as few as 10 days) now rather than waiting until she files her 2009 tax return. Best of all, the mortgage payment is less than it would cost to rent.
This is a trend that is playing out in many areas across the country. "Fortunately, the interest rates are national so you have that incredible interest rate that is forcing the mortgage payment below rent in many locations, including California. So the area that my daughter is buying in, her rent would be $1,100 and her mortgage payment is going to be about $825," says Norris.
Norris says that, coupled with the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, is making renters weigh their options, "It really is an inducement for people to go from being a renter to an owner."
"There are lots of areas that didn't go up as much as California. Let's pick an area, Texas, for instance, you have houses selling for $110,000 to $120,000 range and the rents there are also pretty high--$1,100 - $1,200 or so—so payments there are also a lot less if they own it," says Norris.
"It's most affordable right now, so you would think that everybody would want in, but real estate right now has a lot of fear attached to it and a lot of uncertainty about jobs," says Norris.
Some markets such as California are working to help alleviate barriers to home ownership. The California Association of Realtors in April introduced the Housing Affordability Fund's Mortgage Protection Program. There are specific eligibility requirements; talk to your Realtor for details.
"People who buy property in 2009 have a safety blanket now of six months of up to $1,500 payments per month that the California Association of Realtors, out of some fund that it has, will pay the people's payments," says Norris. He adds, "I've never heard anything like it."
Norris says while these programs to entice renters to become buyers are attractive, he says make sure you're ready to buy. He says there are specific habits that you should have in place before buying a home.
"You should already have developed a savings habit and you're ready to buy a home because you have a little bit of money left over in case something goes wrong," says Norris.
Another affirming reason to move from renting to buying comes from statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, California.
The company reports that 50 percent of the 76 metropolitan area markets across the U.S. that are tracked show that people can buy a house (after tax cost of homeownership considered) for less than they could rent one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Where Housing is Headed
From Realty Times of March 17, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Where Housing is Headed
by Kenneth R. Harney
We received an important indicator of where housing is headed last week, when new mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances suddenly surged as they hadn't in months.
Applications for FHA loans to buy houses were up by 10.4 percent. And overall home purchase applications jumped by 7.1 percent.
Meanwhile mortgage interest rates dropped to their second lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 4.96 percent and fifteen year rated dropped to just 4.5 percent.
Why's this important? New financing applications to buy homes obviously point to rising purchase contracts and closed sales in the months ahead. They also suggest that prices have hit a level in many markets that is attracting once-hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
There's still another factor that's likely at work here as well: Congress's recent improvements to the home purchase tax credit -- pushing it to $8,000 from $7,500 and making it non-repayable. George Ratiu, research economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the big jump in loan applications could be tied to the improved credit in the stimulus package signed into law last month.
"Consumers may be responding to the stimulation" effect of the better credit for 2009, he said.
But let's be clear here: A rise in home purchase applications does NOT suggest we've turned the corner in the cycle or have solved the multiple challenges facing markets around the country -- high foreclosure levels, continuing domination in some areas of REO and short sales, and continuing increases in the unemployment rate.
Even amid these problems, however, there are some hints of possible improvements ahead. For example, a new study by research firm Realty Trac and USA Today found that despite the constant headlines about record levels of foreclosures, the more closely you look, the more you find that those numbers are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of counties.
More than half of the nation's foreclosures in 2008, researchers found, were concentrated in just 35 counties in 12 states. You can guess where: California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida.
But the really eye-opening finding: In more than 650 other counties, representing one fifth of all markets in the U.S., foreclosure numbers have actually declined since 2006.
Foreclosures are horrible no matter where they occur. But the fact is: Huge portions of the United States have NOT been seeing record foreclosures, short sales or even serious property value declines. They're doing better.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Arisona always seems to get a mention - we are No. 2 nationally in Foreclosures in January 2009. I hope most of those are the California Investers that ran our prices up out of reach to most buyers in 2004 and 2005.
.
Real Estate Outlook: Where Housing is Headed
by Kenneth R. Harney
We received an important indicator of where housing is headed last week, when new mortgage applications for home purchases and refinances suddenly surged as they hadn't in months.
Applications for FHA loans to buy houses were up by 10.4 percent. And overall home purchase applications jumped by 7.1 percent.
Meanwhile mortgage interest rates dropped to their second lowest level in nearly two decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 4.96 percent and fifteen year rated dropped to just 4.5 percent.
Why's this important? New financing applications to buy homes obviously point to rising purchase contracts and closed sales in the months ahead. They also suggest that prices have hit a level in many markets that is attracting once-hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
There's still another factor that's likely at work here as well: Congress's recent improvements to the home purchase tax credit -- pushing it to $8,000 from $7,500 and making it non-repayable. George Ratiu, research economist for the National Association of Realtors, says the big jump in loan applications could be tied to the improved credit in the stimulus package signed into law last month.
"Consumers may be responding to the stimulation" effect of the better credit for 2009, he said.
But let's be clear here: A rise in home purchase applications does NOT suggest we've turned the corner in the cycle or have solved the multiple challenges facing markets around the country -- high foreclosure levels, continuing domination in some areas of REO and short sales, and continuing increases in the unemployment rate.
Even amid these problems, however, there are some hints of possible improvements ahead. For example, a new study by research firm Realty Trac and USA Today found that despite the constant headlines about record levels of foreclosures, the more closely you look, the more you find that those numbers are highly concentrated in a relatively small number of counties.
More than half of the nation's foreclosures in 2008, researchers found, were concentrated in just 35 counties in 12 states. You can guess where: California, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Florida.
But the really eye-opening finding: In more than 650 other counties, representing one fifth of all markets in the U.S., foreclosure numbers have actually declined since 2006.
Foreclosures are horrible no matter where they occur. But the fact is: Huge portions of the United States have NOT been seeing record foreclosures, short sales or even serious property value declines. They're doing better.
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Arisona always seems to get a mention - we are No. 2 nationally in Foreclosures in January 2009. I hope most of those are the California Investers that ran our prices up out of reach to most buyers in 2004 and 2005.
.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money
From Realty Times of January 13, 2009
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money by Kenneth R. Harney
Is the economic glass half empty or half full?
Talk to different groups of forecasters and you get different answers, but basically a similar consensus: The national recession is likely to drag on for another four to six months, but by mid-year we should be moving into a slow-growth rebound mode, digging out of recession.
A new poll of 50 top business economists conducted by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, found a mildly upbeat general outlook -- especially if the economic stimulus package being prepared by the incoming Obama administration and the new Congress cuts taxes, stimulates housing sales, lowers mortgage rates, and reverses job losses as the year moves on.
Randell Moore, the head of Blue Chip Indicators, which conducts monthly economic surveys, said "the consensus (is that) we are in the deepest part of the recession (right) now. But the stimulus package and lower gasoline prices are expected to … restore consumer confidence and personal spending -- and that will put us on the road back."
The Federal Reserve released its own forecast, based on discussions at its December board meeting: Expect negative growth through the late Spring, a slow recovery thereafter.
What about housing and real estate?
The latest pending home sales survey by the National Association of Realtors, covering the month of November, was down. But think back to the prevailing mindset back in October and November - some of the biggest jitters and panic on Wall Street in recent history, plus worries about the financial safety of the banking system.
Who would expect people to rush out and sign home purchase contracts with the entire economy in earthquake mode and consumer confidence plummeting?
Today, by contrast, the outlook is VERY different. We're on the verge of getting an economic shot in the arm from a giant stimulus package -- some of which will likely directly target home sales, possibly with tax credits.
Mortgage interest rates are at almost unprecedented lows -- five percent and even below if you've got a downpayment and decent credit. Applications for new mortgages to buy houses were up by more than 7 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey -- up 2.3 percent for those seeking conventional loans and up an amazing 19.2 percent for buyers planning to use FHA financing.
As the saying goes: Follow the money. There's something important stirring out there. Home prices are at 2004 levels in many markets. Buyers who can qualify are seeing real, tangible opportunities….and that dynamic, along with help from the stimulus package, should begin turning around housing even before the economy as a whole.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Real Estate Outlook: Follow the Money by Kenneth R. Harney
Is the economic glass half empty or half full?
Talk to different groups of forecasters and you get different answers, but basically a similar consensus: The national recession is likely to drag on for another four to six months, but by mid-year we should be moving into a slow-growth rebound mode, digging out of recession.
A new poll of 50 top business economists conducted by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, found a mildly upbeat general outlook -- especially if the economic stimulus package being prepared by the incoming Obama administration and the new Congress cuts taxes, stimulates housing sales, lowers mortgage rates, and reverses job losses as the year moves on.
Randell Moore, the head of Blue Chip Indicators, which conducts monthly economic surveys, said "the consensus (is that) we are in the deepest part of the recession (right) now. But the stimulus package and lower gasoline prices are expected to … restore consumer confidence and personal spending -- and that will put us on the road back."
The Federal Reserve released its own forecast, based on discussions at its December board meeting: Expect negative growth through the late Spring, a slow recovery thereafter.
What about housing and real estate?
The latest pending home sales survey by the National Association of Realtors, covering the month of November, was down. But think back to the prevailing mindset back in October and November - some of the biggest jitters and panic on Wall Street in recent history, plus worries about the financial safety of the banking system.
Who would expect people to rush out and sign home purchase contracts with the entire economy in earthquake mode and consumer confidence plummeting?
Today, by contrast, the outlook is VERY different. We're on the verge of getting an economic shot in the arm from a giant stimulus package -- some of which will likely directly target home sales, possibly with tax credits.
Mortgage interest rates are at almost unprecedented lows -- five percent and even below if you've got a downpayment and decent credit. Applications for new mortgages to buy houses were up by more than 7 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey -- up 2.3 percent for those seeking conventional loans and up an amazing 19.2 percent for buyers planning to use FHA financing.
As the saying goes: Follow the money. There's something important stirring out there. Home prices are at 2004 levels in many markets. Buyers who can qualify are seeing real, tangible opportunities….and that dynamic, along with help from the stimulus package, should begin turning around housing even before the economy as a whole.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
POSITIVE THOUGHTS
Ken Harney has provided many good articles through the Realty Times. Here is his view on the 2009 Outlook.
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Real Estate Outlook: What's in Store for 2009?
January 6, 2009 by Kenneth R. Harney
What will the new year bring for housing and real estate? It's easy to look at all the negative economic news in the headlines and say - there's no sign that 2009 is going to be any better than 2008.
But here's a different perspective to consider from one of the country's veteran financial analysts -- Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, the investment banking company.
In a research report issued late in December, Bove said he sees a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle. The government has intervened aggressively in the markets to push interest rates down -- most notably in the home mortgage sector.
Though it takes awhile for low-cost money to begin having its effect, Bove said he expects “housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase.”
Add in the expected massive economic stimulus package being put together on Capitol Hill with the incoming Obama administration -- and there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.
Already there are positive signs of the turnaround Bove predicts:
Mortgage applications are off the charts, mainly for refis but also to buy houses at affordable prices.
Rates continue to hover at 50-year lows - five percent and even four and three quarters percent for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15 and 20 year mortgage terms.
Plus we're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.
And guess what? Americans are actually SAVING again, the national savings rate took a nearly three percent jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.
There are also some signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices UP by six-tenths of a percent in the Mountain states and UP by two tenths of a percent in New England.
You can ridicule small regional gains as statistically irrelevant, but here's Realty Times's economic proposal to you for the New Year: Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all downcycles tail off and come to an end.
We think the smartest players in real estate -- consumers and the industry - will make the most of the positives -- low-cost money, low prices, stabilizing local markets -- and thrive in the new year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
We hope that 2009 will indeed be the turnaround - a little optimism helps!
.
----------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: What's in Store for 2009?
January 6, 2009 by Kenneth R. Harney
What will the new year bring for housing and real estate? It's easy to look at all the negative economic news in the headlines and say - there's no sign that 2009 is going to be any better than 2008.
But here's a different perspective to consider from one of the country's veteran financial analysts -- Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, the investment banking company.
In a research report issued late in December, Bove said he sees a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle. The government has intervened aggressively in the markets to push interest rates down -- most notably in the home mortgage sector.
Though it takes awhile for low-cost money to begin having its effect, Bove said he expects “housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase.”
Add in the expected massive economic stimulus package being put together on Capitol Hill with the incoming Obama administration -- and there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.
Already there are positive signs of the turnaround Bove predicts:
Mortgage applications are off the charts, mainly for refis but also to buy houses at affordable prices.
Rates continue to hover at 50-year lows - five percent and even four and three quarters percent for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15 and 20 year mortgage terms.
Plus we're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.
And guess what? Americans are actually SAVING again, the national savings rate took a nearly three percent jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.
There are also some signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices UP by six-tenths of a percent in the Mountain states and UP by two tenths of a percent in New England.
You can ridicule small regional gains as statistically irrelevant, but here's Realty Times's economic proposal to you for the New Year: Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all downcycles tail off and come to an end.
We think the smartest players in real estate -- consumers and the industry - will make the most of the positives -- low-cost money, low prices, stabilizing local markets -- and thrive in the new year.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2009 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
We hope that 2009 will indeed be the turnaround - a little optimism helps!
.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Market Conditions
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff October 10, 2008
The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
.
The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Watch the Midyear Housing Market Update Video from the National Association of Realtors
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has concluded its mid-year legislative meetings.
One of the highlights of the meeting was a presentation by the NAR Chief Economist.
2008 NAR President-Elect Charles McMillan and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun provided Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo attendees with news on the housing market and when we can expect a recovery.
Click here to watch the video.
A positive message can brighten the future for all of us.
The video is Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
.
One of the highlights of the meeting was a presentation by the NAR Chief Economist.
2008 NAR President-Elect Charles McMillan and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun provided Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo attendees with news on the housing market and when we can expect a recovery.
A positive message can brighten the future for all of us.
The video is Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
The latest projection from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors®:
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
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