Confidence Index for February 2013

Subscriber Confidence Index for February 2013 Every month ARMLS® surveys a representative sample of Subscribers who have closed a minimum of one transaction in the previous 12 months. They are questioned about their feelings on current and future real estate, business and employment conditions in the Valley and their expectation of their family income in six months. Subscriber responses are tabulated and converted into the ARMLS Subscriber Confidence Index (SCI), plus the Present and the Expectation Indices. February’s SCI is 87.5%, the Present Confidence is 87.1% and the Expectation Confidence is 87.7%. Learn more about how the February SCI compares with January. Watch for the SCI every month on the Home page of armls.com.

Phoenix, AZ Statiscal Data

Please take the time to visit my Webpage at www.denismarque.com .

I have added extensive statistical data on Sales, Listings, Days on Market, Foreclosures and many other items at "Market Statistics" on the webpage. You will find it to be encouraging if you are buying or selling in the Phoenix Metro marketplace.

As an aside, if you are concerned about keeping your current home, we do have several plans available to assist you including HAFA, HAMP, and HARP. Give us a call at 480-899-8844.

Denis

Supply-and-demand thinking no longer applies

July 24, 2012

Recovery hinges on home prices Commentary: Supply-and-demand thinking no longer applies By Lou Barnes Inman News® Share This It is high summer, a scorcher, even mad dogs looking for shade. It's supposed to be a nothing-happening time. However, the anxious suspense in markets is as high and hot as the sun. Everyone knows that the U.S. economy has lost momentum. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke on Tuesday twice in one page used "decelerated," followed by "... the generally disappointing tone of recently incoming data." Everyone expects that the Fed will do something, but nobody knows what or when, possibly not the chairman. Bernanke vaguely mentioned use of the Fed's balance sheet -- "QE3" the shorthand for a third round of "quantitative easing" -- but no one outside the Fed can tell if action is held up by internal politics (resistance by the regional-Fed hardheads), or by doubts of QE effectiveness, or by desire to keep powder dry for something more troublesome than a slow patch. The primary purpose of QE has been to knock down long-term rates, but markets have already done that, the 10-year T-note to 1.46 percent, and mortgages to 3.5 percent (if someone answers the phone). The secondary purpose has been to encourage risk-taking by investors and lubricate lending, but credit is choked by regulation and post-Bubble over-reaction. Bernanke: "…Prospective homebuyers cannot obtain mortgages due to tight lending standards." In the Fed's most-recent meeting minutes, the only group agreement in 12 pages was the plaintive wish for new ideas to help the economy. The Fed should hold something in reserve to meet two contingencies: a failure to defer the fiscal cliff now five months away, and/or a euro collapse. The fiscal cliff is actually nearer by. We are only three months from election. President Obama has been unable to make a deal with the current Congress; whether he is re-elected or the lamest of ducks, Congress will remain the same until January. Europe is like watching the Liar on "Saturday Night Live." Day after day after day after day, leadership says everything is fine, going according to plan. Right. This week Finland's short-term sovereigns went to negative yield, and Spain's 10s rose to 7.2 percent. Marker: For the moment French debt is still receiving flight-to-quality cash, its five-year down to 0.86 percent. When markets realize that French banks, budget, economy and trade deficit are in sum no better shape than Italy, and French yields begin to rise ... On to something understandable: U.S. housing. For once, the National Association of REALTORS® has properly explained the drop in June sales of existing homes, down 5.4 percent from May, up 4.5 percent from June 2011. The primary reason: a scarcity of the cheapest distressed inventory, the darling of cash-paying investors. Listed inventory is down 24 percent versus last year. Does this pattern mean anything? For the economy, or housing in general? No. Not yet. Listed inventory is merely apparent supply. The shadow supply lies offshore like ocean swells not yet formed into waves. The most deeply distressed inventory, not yet seized in foreclosure, let alone listed, seems to be down from 4.5 million homes to 4 million but replenished by constant inflow of new delinquency in shaky-economy feedback. Some especially favored local markets -- like mine in Boulder, like Saudi Dakota, and San Francisco and any of the other IT paradises -- are doing remarkably well. The rest of the country ... how can the inventory/sales ratio fall so far and prices not rise? Because we still have at least 15 percent of homes underwater, most owners still making payments; many new sales merely recognizing the pre-existing loss, hardly encouraging to sellers or buyers. Supply-and-demand thinking by finance types when the "bubble" blew was wrong then, and still is. Prices crashed far below "clearing prices" and resulted in more sellers and fewer buyers; now it will take quite a while to work off immense but latent inventory. Media also focus on sales of new homes. Although rising a little, they are not particularly useful, except to the stock prices of builders. The gross domestic product (GDP) contribution of new construction even in good times is low single digit. For a better economy we need home prices to rise. That will repair household balance sheets, and every percentage point of home price gains will mean fewer homes underwater. And for that, as ever since 2007, we need credit. Supply vs. sales today is a statistical curiosity. Watch prices. Prices, prices, prices. Lou Barnes is a mortgage broker and nationally syndicated columnist based in Boulder, Colo. He can be reached at lbarnes@pmglending.com. Contact Lou Barnes: Email Letter to the Editor Copyright 2012 Lou Barnes

Fannie and Freddie Set Timeline Requirements for Short Sales

Fannie and Freddie Set Timeline Requirements for Short Sales

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Signs of upturn in Phoenix's long-suffering housing market

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Sales Across the Nation

May 2, 2011 ON Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Sales Across the Nation by Carla Hill

It's all about sales this week, with the most recent reports coming out on existing-home, new home, and pending home sales.

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), existing-home sales rose in March, up 3.7 percent. The NAR expects existing-home sale to rise around 5 to 10 percent this year, thanks to high levels of affordability, rising rent costs, and job growth.

In new homes, a segment of the market that took a big hit during the recession, sales were up a healthy 11.1 percent in March.

National Association of Home Builders' Chief Economist, David Crowe, reports, "The March pace of new-home sales more accurately reflects current market conditions than the extremely low pace we saw in the first two months of this year, when unusually poor weather likely kept buyers away. That said, the average sales pace for the first quarter of 2011 held at about the same level seen for the last half of 2010. A limiting factor is the extremely thin inventory of new homes for sale, which is now at its second-lowest level in history. Builders continue to confront major challenges in obtaining financing to build new homes, and the shortage of new product makes it that much tougher for them to compete with existing homes on the market. At the same time, tighter lending conditions are making it more difficult for qualified buyers to obtain a mortgage."

Regionally, all areas except the South saw a rise in sales of newly built homes. The Northeast led the way with a 66.7 percent gain. The West posted a distant second at a 25.9 percent gain, and the Midwest saw a still impressive rise of 12.9 percent.

The inventory of new homes for sale fell to 183,000 units in March, which is the second-lowest level on record. This represents a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace.

Pending home sales were also on the rise. After an uneven recovery the past nine months, the NAR's Pending Home Sales Index saw contract signings rise 5.1 percent. This is still down over 11 percent from March 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he said. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

Regionally, all regions except the Northeast saw rises, though every region is still below last year's levels. Most are between 10 and 20 percent below March 2010 levels.

The largest increase month over month was seen in the South, rising 10.3 percent.

Continued strides in the job market and economy will help to foster more growth in the housing sector. If recession recovery continues, the housing market should continue to post gains in the months ahead.

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Builder Confidence and Existing-Home Sales

April 25, 2011 from Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Builder Confidence and Existing-Home Sales
by Carla Hill

The prevalence of short sales and foreclosures has prompted a new bill to be considered in Congress. According to the National Association of Realtors, this new bill could "improve the process for approving short sales" and "bring relief to distressed home owners who are unable to keep their homes and hope to avoid foreclosure."

The process in place now is said to be time-consuming and inefficient.

Ron Phipps, NAR President, says, "As the leading advocate for home ownership and housing issues, Realtors® want to help more home owners avoid foreclosure by facilitating a short sale when a family is absolutely unable to keep their home; however, that can only happen if lenders and servicers approve short sale offers in a reasonable amount of time. Streamlining short sales transactions will reduce the amount of time it takes to sell the property, improve the likelihood that the transaction will close and reduce the overall number of foreclosures. This benefits sellers, lenders, buyers and the entire community."

And communities need all the help they can get. Builder confidence for newly built, single-family homes fell in March, leaving the Index almost stagnant for the last 6 months. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the South was to largely blame, dropping 4 points on the Housing Market Index scale.

"The spring home buying season is getting off to a slow start due to persistent concerns about home values as more foreclosures seem to be hitting the market, increasingly restrictive lending requirements for home buyers and builders, and the slow pace of economic recovery," acknowledged NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While pockets of improving activity are appearing in some markets, the best sales activity appears to be happening in the lower price ranges, where first-time buyers have greater flexibility than repeat buyers who must sell their current home. Consumers who can take advantage of today’s low mortgage rates and very attractive pricing are finding bargains and are buying."

The good news for builders? Nationwide housing starts rose by 7.2 percent in March, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), says, "While the overall rate of new-home production remains quite low and is still being weighed down by significant uncertainties among both home builders and buyers, this latest report is encouraging. It means that some builders are cautiously beginning to re-stock their extremely thin inventories of new homes in anticipation of gradual improvement in consumer demand as the economy slowly inches toward recovery."

All regions except the Northeast experienced gains in March. The West led the way with a 37.1 percent gain. The Midwest and South gained 6.9 and 6.3 percent, respectively.

And the sale of existing-homes rose in March, as well. This continues the uneven recovery we've been experiencing.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects this improving sales pattern to continue. "Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path," he said. "With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain – primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows."

And single-family home sales rose 4.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in March from 4.28 million in February, but are 6.5 percent below the 4.76 million level in March 2010. The median existing single-family home price was $160,500 in March, down 5.3 percent from a year ago. Median prices were down in all regions, ranging from 3.0 to 11.2 percent below year ago levels.

Regionally, existing-home sales rose 3.9 percent in the Northeast, but are 12.1 percent below March 2010. The Midwest saw just a 1.0 percent gain and is still 13.1 percent below year ago levels. The West dropped a marginal 0.8 percent and the South actually rose 8.2 percent.

Buyers are expected to return to the market, though. NAR President, Ron Phipps, reports, "As buyers gain more financial security, the advantages of home ownership become more obvious."

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Existing-Home Sales Rise

February 28, 2011 from Realty Times

Real Estate Outlook: Existing-Home Sales Rise by Carla Hill

The housing market continues to keep experts and analysts on their toes.

While existing-home sales rose again in January and are outpacing year-ago levels, we are still seeing a drop in home prices across much the country.

Existing-home sales increased 2.7 percent in January and are 5.3 percent above January of 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, sees the rise as positive, but with room for improvement. "The uptrend in home sales is consistent with improvements in the economy and jobs, which are helping boost consumer confidence," Yun said. "The extremely favorable housing affordability conditions are a big factor, but buyers have been constrained by unnecessarily tight credit. As a result, there are abnormally high levels of all-cash purchases, along with rising investor activity."

Regionally, the West saw the largest existing-home sales increase. In the West they rose 7.9 percent and are 7.0 percent above January 2010. The Midwest and South also saw monthly rises -- up 1.8 and 3.6 percent respectively.

The Northeast didn't fare as well. The Northeastern region is down 4.6 from December and down 1.2 from year ago levels.

The most recent reports from the Case-Shiller Index have brought on a slew of comments from the experts. The Case-Shiller quarterly index showed prices fell 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 4.1 percent for all of 2010.

Karl Case reports that the housing market is "a rocky bottom with a down trend." And, unfortunately, he was the optimist!

Mr. Robert Shiller, on the other hand, reported that the increased precedence of foreclosures, as well as the impending decisions over the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, leaves risk of future declines at 15 to 25 percent.

Realty Trac reports that 26 percent of all homes sold in 2010 were foreclosures and short sales. The states with the largest percent of distressed sales were Nevada, at 57 percent of all sales; Arizona, at 49 percent; California, 44 percent; and Florida 36 percent.

It's the slow jobs recovery that is partially to blame for this second hit on the housing market, however, new reports from the Labor Department indicate that jobless claims fells again last week. It is now at the lowest levels since late July 2008.

This is a bit of welcome news for a market that is yearning for a bright spot.

Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.

Pending Homes Sales Rise

January 4, 2011

Pending Homes Sales Rise by Carla Hill


While credit remains tight as we move forward into 2011, top economists expect that if the job market revives this year, and interest rates rise only moderately, the housing market could experience a boost.

Pending homes sales are already on the rise. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index reports that pending homes sales rose in November by 3.5 percent.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said historically high housing affordability is boosting sales activity. "In addition to exceptional affordability conditions, steady improvements in the economy are helping bring buyers into the market," he said. "But further gains are needed to reach normal levels of sales activity."

Across the nation, we see regionally diverse markets, however. The Northeast saw pending home sales rise by 1.8 percent, but this figure is still 6.2 percent below November 2009. The West also saw a stunning 18.2 percent jump. This jump leaves it within 0.4 percent of year ago levels.

Both the Midwest and South saw declines, though, in pending sales. The Midwest declined 4.2 percent and is still 7.7 percent below year ago levels. The South fell only 1.8 percent.

"As we gradually work off the excess housing inventory, supply levels will eventually come more in-line with historic averages, and could allow home prices to rise modestly in the range of 2 to 3 percent in 2012," Yun said.

For now, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage remains in the low five percent range, which is near a historical low. The extension of Bush-era tax credits, as well as renewed hopes of job growth could very easily translate into more sales on the housing market horizon.

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Copyright © 2011 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.