From Realty Times of December 22, 2008
Washington Report: Treasury Department Sidesteps by Kenneth R. Harney
It was the biggest housing mystery in Washington last week: What happened to the Treasury Department's much-ballyhooed plan to cut mortgage rates to four and a half percent to stimulate home buying?
Under the plan, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy loans at four and a half percent and the Treasury would subsidize the difference between that and market rates.
But last Tuesday, in an interview on the CNBC cable network, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson basically said: Who me? We never announced any such plan. It got leaked prematurely.
Paulson also hinted that he would be reluctant to launch such an ambitious and potentially costly program without having the tacit support of the incoming Obama administration's Treasury team.
The National Association of Realtors, which had proposed the rate buydown concept to Treasury weeks ago, again called for the federal government to find a way to lower rates to four and half percent.
Meanwhile, new reports surfaced that a second plan was being considered: Under this alternative, the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks around the country would offer cut-rate mortgages using money raised by bond issuances at 3 percent by the Treasury.
According to the Reuters news service, this concept is being pushed aggressively by the president of one of the banks -- Alfred DelliBovi of New York -- and is under active consideration by the bank system's top regulator, James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
The net effect of either plan would be the same to consumers: Sharply lower monthly mortgage costs. For example, here's what a four and a half percent rate does to principal and interest payments compared with a note rate of five and half percent: On a $200,000 mortgage, the one point difference would reduce payments by $122 a month.
One a $300,000 loan, the savings would go to $183 a month. And on a $400,000 mortgage, costs would be lowered by $244 a month.
In his comments on CNBC, Paulson said his department would like to cut home buyers' payments: "We're continuing to look at (that)," he said, "and we wouldn't be doing our jobs if we didn't look at other ideas to reduce mortgage interest rates."
Meanwhile, with market rates tumbling to five percent and below, a half point rate buydown could cost the government much less than originally estimated.
Then again -- there's always the possibility that to stimulate a REALLY big round of home buying, rates could be cut to 4 percent.
After all, it's the holiday gift season … and the housing industry could sure use one.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Lowest Home Loan Rates Ever!
I have received a mailing from a local mortgage representative that states that " ....home loan rates dropped to the lowest levels that have ever been seen....".
If you would like to receive a copy of the entire mailing, please send me an email address to which I may send it. The article is too long to be reproduced here and I do not wish to violate any coyright laws by quoting pieces of the article.
Go get one of those loans!
.
If you would like to receive a copy of the entire mailing, please send me an email address to which I may send it. The article is too long to be reproduced here and I do not wish to violate any coyright laws by quoting pieces of the article.
Go get one of those loans!
.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Best Interest Rates in 50 Years,
By Mary Trupo mtrupo@realtors.org for NAR
Fed Action Creates Best Interest Rates in 50 Years,
Realtors® Report WASHINGTON, December 17, 2008
The National Association of Realtors® applauds the actions of the Federal Reserve Board in lowering interest rates for home buyers and homeowners who need to refinance. This will significantly impact housing sales, home valuations, and the nation’s overall economy.
The Federal Reserve is purchasing large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets.
“NAR has been aggressively calling for mortgage rate reductions, and the Fed’s action to slash interest rates, coupled with the actions by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Department of the Treasury, has driven down interest rates to make the dream of homeownership once again attainable for thousands of Americans,” said NAR President Charles McMillan.
Mortgage rates, which had averaged 6.3 percent in the third quarter, have recently fallen into the 4 percent range in some parts of the country. “That is the lowest rate in nearly 50 years and will bring buyers back to the market,” McMillan said. “We are pleased that the government heard our message and responded to our call for action.”
NAR has estimated that a one percentage point decrease in mortgage rates will increase home sales by more than 500,000 homes. “To boost the economy, it is critical to stem the rising tide of foreclosures and boost home buyer confidence in the housing market.” McMillan said. “Lower interest rates coupled with increased foreclosure mitigation are the key ingredients to stabilizing the housing market and preserving communities and homeownership.”
NAR continues to call on the federal government to maintain the higher loan limits passed in the economic stimulus bill earlier this year and to expand the $7,500 tax credit for first-time home buyers to all buyers and to eliminate the credit repayment requirement. “Together, all of these actions will stimulate and stabilize the housing market and begin an overall economic recovery,” McMillan said.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
.
Fed Action Creates Best Interest Rates in 50 Years,
Realtors® Report WASHINGTON, December 17, 2008
The National Association of Realtors® applauds the actions of the Federal Reserve Board in lowering interest rates for home buyers and homeowners who need to refinance. This will significantly impact housing sales, home valuations, and the nation’s overall economy.
The Federal Reserve is purchasing large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets.
“NAR has been aggressively calling for mortgage rate reductions, and the Fed’s action to slash interest rates, coupled with the actions by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Department of the Treasury, has driven down interest rates to make the dream of homeownership once again attainable for thousands of Americans,” said NAR President Charles McMillan.
Mortgage rates, which had averaged 6.3 percent in the third quarter, have recently fallen into the 4 percent range in some parts of the country. “That is the lowest rate in nearly 50 years and will bring buyers back to the market,” McMillan said. “We are pleased that the government heard our message and responded to our call for action.”
NAR has estimated that a one percentage point decrease in mortgage rates will increase home sales by more than 500,000 homes. “To boost the economy, it is critical to stem the rising tide of foreclosures and boost home buyer confidence in the housing market.” McMillan said. “Lower interest rates coupled with increased foreclosure mitigation are the key ingredients to stabilizing the housing market and preserving communities and homeownership.”
NAR continues to call on the federal government to maintain the higher loan limits passed in the economic stimulus bill earlier this year and to expand the $7,500 tax credit for first-time home buyers to all buyers and to eliminate the credit repayment requirement. “Together, all of these actions will stimulate and stabilize the housing market and begin an overall economic recovery,” McMillan said.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
December 16, 2008
from Realty Times
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
by Kenneth R. Harney
How you see the real estate market at the moment depends on what parts you look at. If you focus primarily on mortgage rates and core affordability measures, you may see the country in a recession, but there are some very positive forces at work in the housing sector.
On the other hand, if you look at widespread employment losses -- 530,000 last month alone -- along with rising personal and business bankruptcies, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at levels not seen since the 1930's, you might ask: How can housing rebound if the overall economy is mired in such a mess?
And of course housing can't bounce back significantly unless national and regional economic fundamentals begin to improve. But there's at least an outside chance that housing could help in that whole process -- and begin to get healthier as a result.
Here's why: Number one -- affordability has dramatically improved since the end of the boom.
Thanks to severe price rollbacks and near-record low interest rates, homes are more affordable to households with average incomes than they've been for almost a decade. Standard and Poor's economist David Wyss calls affordability a major bright spot, and that's confirmed by the Housing Affordability Index compiled by the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates are an important part of that equation, and they dropped again last week -- this time below five and half percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Add onto this the Treasury Department's reported plan to cut fixed mortgage rates for home purchasers to four and a half percent through a "buy-down" program, and you've got the potential underpinnings for serious increases in home buying just over the horizon.
Some economists project an increase in sales of 500,000 to 700,000 homes in the coming 12 months if mortgage rates are cut by a point, AND if the new Congress agrees to include a non-refundable tax credit of up to 10 percent of the purchase price of a home in the economic stimulus package expected in January.
The idea here is to stoke up housing sales and construction -- and dozens of other industries through housing's well-documented multiplier effect -- the stimulus it gives through ripple effects into building materials, appliances, furniture among others.
This has worked before. Congress took precisely these two steps -- interest rate reductions plus tax credits for home purchases - in the 1970s, and the program had far-reaching positive effects on jobs and the economy as a whole.
It could happen again -- even if, on any given day, the picture looks a little grim.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Mortgage rates in the Phoenix area hit below 6% APR last week - still waiting?
.
from Realty Times
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: Affordability Dramatically Improved
by Kenneth R. Harney
How you see the real estate market at the moment depends on what parts you look at. If you focus primarily on mortgage rates and core affordability measures, you may see the country in a recession, but there are some very positive forces at work in the housing sector.
On the other hand, if you look at widespread employment losses -- 530,000 last month alone -- along with rising personal and business bankruptcies, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures at levels not seen since the 1930's, you might ask: How can housing rebound if the overall economy is mired in such a mess?
And of course housing can't bounce back significantly unless national and regional economic fundamentals begin to improve. But there's at least an outside chance that housing could help in that whole process -- and begin to get healthier as a result.
Here's why: Number one -- affordability has dramatically improved since the end of the boom.
Thanks to severe price rollbacks and near-record low interest rates, homes are more affordable to households with average incomes than they've been for almost a decade. Standard and Poor's economist David Wyss calls affordability a major bright spot, and that's confirmed by the Housing Affordability Index compiled by the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates are an important part of that equation, and they dropped again last week -- this time below five and half percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Add onto this the Treasury Department's reported plan to cut fixed mortgage rates for home purchasers to four and a half percent through a "buy-down" program, and you've got the potential underpinnings for serious increases in home buying just over the horizon.
Some economists project an increase in sales of 500,000 to 700,000 homes in the coming 12 months if mortgage rates are cut by a point, AND if the new Congress agrees to include a non-refundable tax credit of up to 10 percent of the purchase price of a home in the economic stimulus package expected in January.
The idea here is to stoke up housing sales and construction -- and dozens of other industries through housing's well-documented multiplier effect -- the stimulus it gives through ripple effects into building materials, appliances, furniture among others.
This has worked before. Congress took precisely these two steps -- interest rate reductions plus tax credits for home purchases - in the 1970s, and the program had far-reaching positive effects on jobs and the economy as a whole.
It could happen again -- even if, on any given day, the picture looks a little grim.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Mortgage rates in the Phoenix area hit below 6% APR last week - still waiting?
.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Fannie Mae Updates
Fannie Mae recently released new guidelines that you need to know about. Go to FannieMaeUpdates
to read the summary of these changes.
This will give you a guide as to what your lender must comply with on new loans following disposition of current loan problems.
.
to read the summary of these changes.
This will give you a guide as to what your lender must comply with on new loans following disposition of current loan problems.
.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suspending foreclosures for 16,000
From the Arizona Republic of Nov. 20, 2008
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac halting foreclosures
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are suspending foreclosures for about 16,000 households during the holiday season.
The two companies said Thursday that they will halt foreclosure sales between Nov. 26 and Jan. 9, while they evaluate whether borrowers qualify for a new loan modification program announced last week.
Fannie Mae said about 10,000 households would be affected, while Freddie Mac said the changes would affect about 6,000 borrowers who are facing foreclosure. The change does not apply to vacant homes.
The announcement “provides a new measure of certainty to many of these families during the holidays,” Freddie Mac Chief Executive David Moffett said in a release.
Both Fannie and Freddie were seized by the government on Sept. 7. The companies' former CEOs were ousted and the government now has direct control over the pair.
Fannie and Freddie's loan modification plan aims to help abate the foreclosure crisis by aiding homeowners who have fallen at least three months behind on their payments, but only if their loans are held by the two companies.
Under the program, the new primary mortgage payments — including taxes and insurance —shouldn't total more than 38 percent of homeowners' pretax monthly income.
Fannie and Freddie are the dominant players in the U.S. mortgage market but hold only 20 percent of delinquent loans. Ultimately about 400,000 households are likely to qualify for the loan modification program, according to Priya Misra, a mortgage analyst with Barclays Capital.
By contrast, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that more than 4.4 million borrowers will become delinquent by the end of next year, not including loans backed by Fannie and Freddie.
.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac halting foreclosures
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - Mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are suspending foreclosures for about 16,000 households during the holiday season.
The two companies said Thursday that they will halt foreclosure sales between Nov. 26 and Jan. 9, while they evaluate whether borrowers qualify for a new loan modification program announced last week.
Fannie Mae said about 10,000 households would be affected, while Freddie Mac said the changes would affect about 6,000 borrowers who are facing foreclosure. The change does not apply to vacant homes.
The announcement “provides a new measure of certainty to many of these families during the holidays,” Freddie Mac Chief Executive David Moffett said in a release.
Both Fannie and Freddie were seized by the government on Sept. 7. The companies' former CEOs were ousted and the government now has direct control over the pair.
Fannie and Freddie's loan modification plan aims to help abate the foreclosure crisis by aiding homeowners who have fallen at least three months behind on their payments, but only if their loans are held by the two companies.
Under the program, the new primary mortgage payments — including taxes and insurance —shouldn't total more than 38 percent of homeowners' pretax monthly income.
Fannie and Freddie are the dominant players in the U.S. mortgage market but hold only 20 percent of delinquent loans. Ultimately about 400,000 households are likely to qualify for the loan modification program, according to Priya Misra, a mortgage analyst with Barclays Capital.
By contrast, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that more than 4.4 million borrowers will become delinquent by the end of next year, not including loans backed by Fannie and Freddie.
.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
States Step Up Foreclosure Relief
From Realty Times of October 30, 2008
States Step Up Foreclosure Relief by Broderick Perkins
"Defaulting on the Dream: States Respond to America's Foreclosure Crisis" is a must read for home owners struggling with their mortgage.
Produced by the Pew Charitable Trusts as the first detailed dissertation to chronicle the impact of the foreclosure crisis at the state level, the report is chock full of "where-to-go-for-help" advice.
"The stakes are incredibly high. Home ownership is the primary vehicle through which American families build financial security. It also is an essential building block of state and local economies," according to Pew managing directors Susan Urahn and Shelley Hearne.
Their timing is impeccable. One in 33 current U.S. homeowners may be headed toward foreclosure in the coming years because of subprime loans, and in some states the crisis is more acute. In Arizona, one in every 18 homeowners could lose their home. In Nevada, the ratio is one in 11, according to the report.
The report charts some assertive, even experimental state efforts to mitigate financial harm to homeowners, lenders, local communities and state budgets.
To help borrowers avoid foreclosure and keep their homes, 20 states (including California, Colorado, New York and Nevada) have launched formal foreclosure intervention or prevention initiatives.
Sixteen states (along with those above, including, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania) have enacted both high-cost lending and foreclosure intervention laws.
Thirteen states (among them Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota) have created counseling hotlines to help the foreclosure-at-risk, and several states are encouraging (too often reluctant) lenders to work with borrowers to find alternatives to foreclosure.
Nine states (including Delaware, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio) have established loan funds that can be used to refinance borrowers who have loans they cannot afford or to provide short-term loans to help borrowers overcome financial difficulties.
To protect vulnerable borrowers from unscrupulous real estate investors, nine states have created laws regulating firms that claim to "rescue" borrowers from default. Since the downturn, rescue operations have preyed upon vulnerable home owners.
And in an effort to prevent problematic loans from being made in the first place, 31 states (among them, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah ) have implemented laws that address predatory lending.
The report also explains the foreclosure process and lists home owners options when they default (become more than 30 days late on a payment) on their mortgage.
Bring the account current by paying the past due balance on their loan, including late charges and other fees assessed by the lender.
Renegotiate the terms of their loan with the lender.
Pay off their loan by refinancing the loan with another lender.
Sell the property to pay off the current loan, if the home is worth more than the mortgage. Or if the property is not worth the mortgage balance, engage a "short sale" where the lender forgives a portion of the debt provided a seller is available to buy the home.
Voluntarily convey the property back to the lender through a deed–in-lieu of foreclosure.
The report also lists a host of relief efforts, some on the state level, some not, some well known, some not so well known, including:
Homeownership Preservation Foundation creates partnerships to help families overcome obstacles that could cause foreclosure.
National Consumer Law Center uses consumer law to promote marketplace justice for vulnerable home owners and families.
Pennsylvania's Homeowners' Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program (HEMAP) is a loan fund that provides eligible state residents with foreclosure assistance.
Minnesota's Foreclosure Prevention Assistance Program provides eligible state home owners with counseling and financial assistance.
Ohio's Opportunity Loan Refinance Program helps borrowers refinance high-cost loans with a 30-year fixed-rate and a 20-year, fixed rate second.
Check with your state housing, consumer, social or community agencies to determine what home owner and mortgage programs and assistance is available to help see you through hard times.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Visit Mr. Broderick's blog at
DEADLINENEWSROOM
To review the detailed article referenced by Mr. Broderick, visit:
Defaulting on the Dream
.
States Step Up Foreclosure Relief by Broderick Perkins
"Defaulting on the Dream: States Respond to America's Foreclosure Crisis" is a must read for home owners struggling with their mortgage.
Produced by the Pew Charitable Trusts as the first detailed dissertation to chronicle the impact of the foreclosure crisis at the state level, the report is chock full of "where-to-go-for-help" advice.
"The stakes are incredibly high. Home ownership is the primary vehicle through which American families build financial security. It also is an essential building block of state and local economies," according to Pew managing directors Susan Urahn and Shelley Hearne.
Their timing is impeccable. One in 33 current U.S. homeowners may be headed toward foreclosure in the coming years because of subprime loans, and in some states the crisis is more acute. In Arizona, one in every 18 homeowners could lose their home. In Nevada, the ratio is one in 11, according to the report.
The report charts some assertive, even experimental state efforts to mitigate financial harm to homeowners, lenders, local communities and state budgets.
To help borrowers avoid foreclosure and keep their homes, 20 states (including California, Colorado, New York and Nevada) have launched formal foreclosure intervention or prevention initiatives.
Sixteen states (along with those above, including, Indiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania) have enacted both high-cost lending and foreclosure intervention laws.
Thirteen states (among them Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota) have created counseling hotlines to help the foreclosure-at-risk, and several states are encouraging (too often reluctant) lenders to work with borrowers to find alternatives to foreclosure.
Nine states (including Delaware, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio) have established loan funds that can be used to refinance borrowers who have loans they cannot afford or to provide short-term loans to help borrowers overcome financial difficulties.
To protect vulnerable borrowers from unscrupulous real estate investors, nine states have created laws regulating firms that claim to "rescue" borrowers from default. Since the downturn, rescue operations have preyed upon vulnerable home owners.
And in an effort to prevent problematic loans from being made in the first place, 31 states (among them, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah ) have implemented laws that address predatory lending.
The report also explains the foreclosure process and lists home owners options when they default (become more than 30 days late on a payment) on their mortgage.
Bring the account current by paying the past due balance on their loan, including late charges and other fees assessed by the lender.
Renegotiate the terms of their loan with the lender.
Pay off their loan by refinancing the loan with another lender.
Sell the property to pay off the current loan, if the home is worth more than the mortgage. Or if the property is not worth the mortgage balance, engage a "short sale" where the lender forgives a portion of the debt provided a seller is available to buy the home.
Voluntarily convey the property back to the lender through a deed–in-lieu of foreclosure.
The report also lists a host of relief efforts, some on the state level, some not, some well known, some not so well known, including:
Homeownership Preservation Foundation creates partnerships to help families overcome obstacles that could cause foreclosure.
National Consumer Law Center uses consumer law to promote marketplace justice for vulnerable home owners and families.
Pennsylvania's Homeowners' Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program (HEMAP) is a loan fund that provides eligible state residents with foreclosure assistance.
Minnesota's Foreclosure Prevention Assistance Program provides eligible state home owners with counseling and financial assistance.
Ohio's Opportunity Loan Refinance Program helps borrowers refinance high-cost loans with a 30-year fixed-rate and a 20-year, fixed rate second.
Check with your state housing, consumer, social or community agencies to determine what home owner and mortgage programs and assistance is available to help see you through hard times.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Visit Mr. Broderick's blog at
To review the detailed article referenced by Mr. Broderick, visit:
.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
HUD GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR PROGRAM
A super HUD program available to Police and Teachers - tough to beat a 50% discount:
GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR PROGRAM
· HUD offers a substantial incentive in the form of a discount of 50% from the list price of a home to law enforcement officers, pre-Kindergarten through 12th grade teachers and firefighters/emergency medical techs.
· In return the borrower must commit to live in the property for 36 months.
· Eligible SFR homes are HUD REOs located in HUD determined “revitalization areas”. To search for HUD listings click the following link. http://www.mcbreo.com/st_azmain.htm. Click on “City” next to “View All Available Properties”.
· HUD requires that the borrower sign a second mortgage note for the discount amount. No interest or payments are required on this “silent second” provided that the borrower fulfills the 3 year occupancy requirement.
· You may use FHA, VA or conventional financing.
· The purchase contract must indicate that the property is eligible for the GNND Program.
.
GOOD NEIGHBOR NEXT DOOR PROGRAM
· HUD offers a substantial incentive in the form of a discount of 50% from the list price of a home to law enforcement officers, pre-Kindergarten through 12th grade teachers and firefighters/emergency medical techs.
· In return the borrower must commit to live in the property for 36 months.
· Eligible SFR homes are HUD REOs located in HUD determined “revitalization areas”. To search for HUD listings click the following link. http://www.mcbreo.com/st_azmain.htm. Click on “City” next to “View All Available Properties”.
· HUD requires that the borrower sign a second mortgage note for the discount amount. No interest or payments are required on this “silent second” provided that the borrower fulfills the 3 year occupancy requirement.
· You may use FHA, VA or conventional financing.
· The purchase contract must indicate that the property is eligible for the GNND Program.
.
Monday, October 20, 2008
FHA Still Going Strong
From Realty Times of October 20, 2008
Washington Report: FHA Still Going Strong by Kenneth R. Harney
The country's top housing official has an urgent message for potential home buyers: You may have heard that the credit markets were "frozen," but FHA has been open for business throughout the credit squeeze, and so are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, FHA's volume has tripled and the agency is now insuring well over a hundred thousand new loans a month.
In an exclusive one-on-one interview with Realty Times, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston said that FHA, Fannie and Freddie -- who account for a combined 90 percent plus share of the entire U.S. mortgage market -- "have kept liquidity alive" for home buyers -- and have virtually unlimited funds for new mortgages.
"There is no credit crisis" for individual home buyers who have at least three percent to put down, documentable employment, and at least a moderately good credit record, said Preston.
Business loans and various other types of credit may have been more difficult to obtain in recent weeks, Preston told Realty Times, but thanks to the government's backing of the three biggest sources of mortgages, buyers and refinancers of houses have had no unusual problems.
Preston and HUD are playing key roles in the $700 billion financial system bailout plan now getting underway. Preston is one of just five members of the Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversees the entire effort. HUD's main task in the weeks ahead, he said, will be to either refinance or help work out thousands of delinquent subprime and underwater homes financed by private lenders during the boom years.
The agency's new "Hope for Homeowners" program, which started October 1, allows it to cut the principal debt, monthly payments and interest rates of delinquent loans through refinancings into fixed-rate FHA mortgages.
In the interview, Preston emphasized the importance of a new, $3.9 billion program that has received virtually no attention in the press, but which could have huge positive impacts on neighborhoods and communities struggling with large numbers of foreclosures.
Congress authorized HUD to provide funds and other assistance to local governments to buy, fix up, resell or rent out foreclosed houses that are dragging down local property values.
Known as the Neighborhood Stabilization program, it offers not only roles for local governments to fight housing blight, but also provides opportunities for alert realty agents, rehab contractors, builders and investors to be involved -- profitably -- in the turnaround efforts.
If you're interested, talk to your city or county housing and community development officials for details. Though HUD will be providing the funds, local officials will be calling the shots.
.
Washington Report: FHA Still Going Strong by Kenneth R. Harney
The country's top housing official has an urgent message for potential home buyers: You may have heard that the credit markets were "frozen," but FHA has been open for business throughout the credit squeeze, and so are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, FHA's volume has tripled and the agency is now insuring well over a hundred thousand new loans a month.
In an exclusive one-on-one interview with Realty Times, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston said that FHA, Fannie and Freddie -- who account for a combined 90 percent plus share of the entire U.S. mortgage market -- "have kept liquidity alive" for home buyers -- and have virtually unlimited funds for new mortgages.
"There is no credit crisis" for individual home buyers who have at least three percent to put down, documentable employment, and at least a moderately good credit record, said Preston.
Business loans and various other types of credit may have been more difficult to obtain in recent weeks, Preston told Realty Times, but thanks to the government's backing of the three biggest sources of mortgages, buyers and refinancers of houses have had no unusual problems.
Preston and HUD are playing key roles in the $700 billion financial system bailout plan now getting underway. Preston is one of just five members of the Financial Stability Oversight Board that oversees the entire effort. HUD's main task in the weeks ahead, he said, will be to either refinance or help work out thousands of delinquent subprime and underwater homes financed by private lenders during the boom years.
The agency's new "Hope for Homeowners" program, which started October 1, allows it to cut the principal debt, monthly payments and interest rates of delinquent loans through refinancings into fixed-rate FHA mortgages.
In the interview, Preston emphasized the importance of a new, $3.9 billion program that has received virtually no attention in the press, but which could have huge positive impacts on neighborhoods and communities struggling with large numbers of foreclosures.
Congress authorized HUD to provide funds and other assistance to local governments to buy, fix up, resell or rent out foreclosed houses that are dragging down local property values.
Known as the Neighborhood Stabilization program, it offers not only roles for local governments to fight housing blight, but also provides opportunities for alert realty agents, rehab contractors, builders and investors to be involved -- profitably -- in the turnaround efforts.
If you're interested, talk to your city or county housing and community development officials for details. Though HUD will be providing the funds, local officials will be calling the shots.
.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Buyers Go West for Good Deals
From Realty Times of October 17, 2008
Hot Market: Buyers Go West for Good Deals by M. Anthony Carr
You've heard the news that pending sales are up across the country over 7 percent from July to August. While that's the broad brush news, when looking at the details, one sees just how many states in the West are experiencing a huge surge in the number of sales being registered on real estate boards across the region.
Following the trends over the last two quarters, it should be no surprise that the real estate market across the country is slowly beginning to show signs of life. The National Association of Realtors, keeper of national realty sales data, has been releasing the numbers all year of state after state experiencing very healthy sales increases from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter.
Leading the way is Idaho, with a 51 percent jump between the two quarters. California was up 25.8 percent followed closely by Nevada at 25 percent. The fourth strongest statewide market was Arizona, up by 20.5 percent.
The only two states to show a quarter over quarter increase from 2nd quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2008 was California, up 3.7% and Nevada surging forward at 18 percent.
When news hit about this latest sales increase of 7.4 percent, hidden, again, in the fine print was the fact that sales year over year in the west had jumped a whopping 37 percent. The challenge facing markets now, of course, is the current credit crisis, which will determine if the trends of upward bound sales will continue.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Biggest concern now, is it getting too crowded out here? We are projected to double in population in only a decade or two from now!
.
Hot Market: Buyers Go West for Good Deals by M. Anthony Carr
You've heard the news that pending sales are up across the country over 7 percent from July to August. While that's the broad brush news, when looking at the details, one sees just how many states in the West are experiencing a huge surge in the number of sales being registered on real estate boards across the region.
Following the trends over the last two quarters, it should be no surprise that the real estate market across the country is slowly beginning to show signs of life. The National Association of Realtors, keeper of national realty sales data, has been releasing the numbers all year of state after state experiencing very healthy sales increases from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter.
Leading the way is Idaho, with a 51 percent jump between the two quarters. California was up 25.8 percent followed closely by Nevada at 25 percent. The fourth strongest statewide market was Arizona, up by 20.5 percent.
The only two states to show a quarter over quarter increase from 2nd quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2008 was California, up 3.7% and Nevada surging forward at 18 percent.
When news hit about this latest sales increase of 7.4 percent, hidden, again, in the fine print was the fact that sales year over year in the west had jumped a whopping 37 percent. The challenge facing markets now, of course, is the current credit crisis, which will determine if the trends of upward bound sales will continue.
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Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Biggest concern now, is it getting too crowded out here? We are projected to double in population in only a decade or two from now!
.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Smaller Homeowner Bailout Already In Place
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Realty Times of October 16, 2008
Smaller Homeowner Bailout Already In Place, by an old freind, Broderick Perkins
Don't wait for home owner bailout provisions to trickle down from the $700 billion "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008," (H.R. 1424) recently rushed through Congress.
When it comes to help from new federal legislation for distressed home owners, the $300 billion "Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008" (H.R. 3221), signed earlier this year, can provide more immediate relief.
The $300 billion recovery act has both a mandated mortgage modifying provision and a voluntary "Hope For Homeowners" (H4H) refinance program, for home owners who qualify.
President Bush signed the larger $700 billion stabilization act on Oct. 3, 2008, but it is, in-part, "stay tuned" legislation. Exactly how it will be implemented to help home owners -- or the economy at large, for that matter -- isn't fully clear.
In part, the stabilization act calls for federal agencies holding mortgage and mortgage securities to identify loans that can be modified and work toward modifications. The stabilization act also allows the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury to use loan guarantees and credit enhancements to help home owners avoid foreclosures. And the stabilization deal calls for shoring up the H4H program. How any of those provisions will be implemented, however, is still under consideration.
Loan modifications
On the other hand, the older recovery act, signed in July came with one provision ready to go. It mandated that mortgage servicers modify loans for certain home owners to help them avoid foreclosure as long as three requirements are met:
A default on the mortgage either has already happened or is "reasonably foreseeable."
The home owner lives in the property as his or her primary residence.
The lender is likely to recover more through the loan modification or workout than by forcing the home owner into foreclosure.
It's up to the home owner to prove, in writing, his or her case to the lender. That could mean some back and forth negotiating, even legal wrangling. To that end, an accredited mortgage, banker and broker certifier, CMPS Institute, offers a sample letter containing more assistance, and tips to help home owners negotiate a loan modification.
The institute further advises:
1. Your hardship letter should demonstrate job loss, a serious health condition, an ensuing balloon payment, a coming adjustable rate reset or some other financial calamity that will preclude you from making your mortgage payments as scheduled.
2. Send the letter along with documented evidence -- your financial statements, employment records, tax returns and bank statements and other evidence that demonstrates how you can afford a modified loan under your present financial circumstances. Also send the lender a current appraisal of your home or otherwise document the current value of your home.
3. Deal directly with a representative of the lender's "loss mitigation" or workout department-- not a broker, loan originator or other mortgage staffer.
FHA refinancing
Newly effective Oct. 1, 2008 a second provision of the recovery act allows troubled mortgage holders to avoid foreclosure by refinancing into smaller, more affordable, Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed mortgages, provided Uncle Sam gets a piece of the equity-growth action and provided the lender voluntarily agrees to the deal, which includes writing down or reducing loan balances.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs' (HUD) "Hope For Homeowners"fact sheets spell out the details.
The refinanced, 30-year, fixed rated FHA mortgages in the H4H program are for home owner-occupants having difficulty making their payments.
The existing mortgage must have been originated on or before January 1, 2008, and the owner must have made at least six payments.
Banks can volunteer to write down an existing mortgage to 90 percent of the new appraised value of the home. To get the deal to fly, any holders of existing mortgage liens must release the liens and waive all prepayment penalties and late payment fees. The existing first mortgage holder has to accept the H4H loan as full settlement of all outstanding indebtedness.
As of March 2008, the home owner's total monthly mortgage payments due must be more than 31 percent of the household's gross monthly income.
The loan amount on the new H4H mortgage cannot exceed $550,440. The amount can include a financed 3 percent "Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium" and other loan costs. The home owner must also pay a 1.5 percent annual mortgage insurance premium.
The home owner cannot take out a second mortgage for the first five years of the new loan, except under certain emergency conditions.
The borrower must agree to share equity with the FHA, both the equity created at the beginning of the new mortgage and future appreciation in the value of the home. If the home is sold or refinanced, the homeowner will share the equity with FHA on a sliding scale ranging from a 100 percent FHA share after the first year to a minimum of 50 percent after five years. The FHA will share a portion of its equity earnings, when available, with past lien holders until any available appreciation is exhausted. Any left over appreciation goes to the FHA on the sliding scale.
More help for home owners: "Foreclosure Prevention Efforts Grow.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Broderick has done a great job sorting through the Govt lawyer language to explain an important program available NOW. Visit his website at
DEADLINENEWSROOM
.
From Realty Times of October 16, 2008
Smaller Homeowner Bailout Already In Place, by an old freind, Broderick Perkins
Don't wait for home owner bailout provisions to trickle down from the $700 billion "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008," (H.R. 1424) recently rushed through Congress.
When it comes to help from new federal legislation for distressed home owners, the $300 billion "Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008" (H.R. 3221), signed earlier this year, can provide more immediate relief.
The $300 billion recovery act has both a mandated mortgage modifying provision and a voluntary "Hope For Homeowners" (H4H) refinance program, for home owners who qualify.
President Bush signed the larger $700 billion stabilization act on Oct. 3, 2008, but it is, in-part, "stay tuned" legislation. Exactly how it will be implemented to help home owners -- or the economy at large, for that matter -- isn't fully clear.
In part, the stabilization act calls for federal agencies holding mortgage and mortgage securities to identify loans that can be modified and work toward modifications. The stabilization act also allows the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury to use loan guarantees and credit enhancements to help home owners avoid foreclosures. And the stabilization deal calls for shoring up the H4H program. How any of those provisions will be implemented, however, is still under consideration.
Loan modifications
On the other hand, the older recovery act, signed in July came with one provision ready to go. It mandated that mortgage servicers modify loans for certain home owners to help them avoid foreclosure as long as three requirements are met:
A default on the mortgage either has already happened or is "reasonably foreseeable."
The home owner lives in the property as his or her primary residence.
The lender is likely to recover more through the loan modification or workout than by forcing the home owner into foreclosure.
It's up to the home owner to prove, in writing, his or her case to the lender. That could mean some back and forth negotiating, even legal wrangling. To that end, an accredited mortgage, banker and broker certifier, CMPS Institute, offers a sample letter containing more assistance, and tips to help home owners negotiate a loan modification.
The institute further advises:
1. Your hardship letter should demonstrate job loss, a serious health condition, an ensuing balloon payment, a coming adjustable rate reset or some other financial calamity that will preclude you from making your mortgage payments as scheduled.
2. Send the letter along with documented evidence -- your financial statements, employment records, tax returns and bank statements and other evidence that demonstrates how you can afford a modified loan under your present financial circumstances. Also send the lender a current appraisal of your home or otherwise document the current value of your home.
3. Deal directly with a representative of the lender's "loss mitigation" or workout department-- not a broker, loan originator or other mortgage staffer.
FHA refinancing
Newly effective Oct. 1, 2008 a second provision of the recovery act allows troubled mortgage holders to avoid foreclosure by refinancing into smaller, more affordable, Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed mortgages, provided Uncle Sam gets a piece of the equity-growth action and provided the lender voluntarily agrees to the deal, which includes writing down or reducing loan balances.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs' (HUD) "Hope For Homeowners"fact sheets spell out the details.
The refinanced, 30-year, fixed rated FHA mortgages in the H4H program are for home owner-occupants having difficulty making their payments.
The existing mortgage must have been originated on or before January 1, 2008, and the owner must have made at least six payments.
Banks can volunteer to write down an existing mortgage to 90 percent of the new appraised value of the home. To get the deal to fly, any holders of existing mortgage liens must release the liens and waive all prepayment penalties and late payment fees. The existing first mortgage holder has to accept the H4H loan as full settlement of all outstanding indebtedness.
As of March 2008, the home owner's total monthly mortgage payments due must be more than 31 percent of the household's gross monthly income.
The loan amount on the new H4H mortgage cannot exceed $550,440. The amount can include a financed 3 percent "Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium" and other loan costs. The home owner must also pay a 1.5 percent annual mortgage insurance premium.
The home owner cannot take out a second mortgage for the first five years of the new loan, except under certain emergency conditions.
The borrower must agree to share equity with the FHA, both the equity created at the beginning of the new mortgage and future appreciation in the value of the home. If the home is sold or refinanced, the homeowner will share the equity with FHA on a sliding scale ranging from a 100 percent FHA share after the first year to a minimum of 50 percent after five years. The FHA will share a portion of its equity earnings, when available, with past lien holders until any available appreciation is exhausted. Any left over appreciation goes to the FHA on the sliding scale.
More help for home owners: "Foreclosure Prevention Efforts Grow.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Broderick has done a great job sorting through the Govt lawyer language to explain an important program available NOW. Visit his website at
.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Real Estate Market Defying Odds
An encouraging article from Realty Times of October 14, 2008:
Real Estate Outlook: Real Estate Market Defying Odds by Kenneth R. Harney
The panic and fear that have been shaking Wall Street aren't translating into negative numbers for real estate -- in fact, it's been the reverse.
While the Dow Jones index peeled off a record fourteen hundred points in a matter of days, the latest pending home sales index was moving in the opposite direction -- up strongly to its highest level in more than a year.
Pending sales jumped by 7.4 percent in the latest month, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Financial industry analysts had forecast a one and a half point DECLINE in the index for the month, but pent-up demand for housing, plus rock bottom bargain prices in many markets, convinced buyers that this is a good time to get off the sidelines and get into the game.
The pending home sales index measures new contracts for home purchases that haven't yet gone to closing, but should do so in the near future. It's a widely accepted predictor of sales activity two to three months down the road.
Mortgage rates and new loan applications also defied the negative spiral in the stock market: Applications for home purchases to be financed with conventional mortgages jumped by three percent last week, and new FHA applications were up by nearly 10 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey.
Interest rates on 30 year fixed rate loans dropped to 5.9 percent and 15 year rates hit 5.7 percent.
Why the sharp divergence in performance between home real estate and Wall Street?
One key reason is that real estate -- which helped trigger the financial crisis through lending abuses and fraud -- has been undergoing its own correction on pricing and underwriting practices for the past two and a half years.
It's already taken its lumps, and has now reached a point where prices in former boom markets are so affordable that smart buyers are swooping in.
Also - although we keep hearing about the global credit squeeze and banks' unwillingness to lend money, that's definitely NOT the case in the mortgage market. There's plenty of money available - as long as you have a solid credit history and some downpayment cash.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA now account for well over 90 percent of home financing volume, and all three are backed by the federal government.
They've got a direct and virtually unlimited pipeline into the capital markets.
And with mortgage rates under 6 percent, no wonder consumers are shopping for -- and buying -- houses at great prices.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
-----------------------------------
Phoenix area progess is on my website at www.denismarque.com on the Welcome page and on the Buyer Help page. Pay us a visit!
.
Real Estate Outlook: Real Estate Market Defying Odds by Kenneth R. Harney
The panic and fear that have been shaking Wall Street aren't translating into negative numbers for real estate -- in fact, it's been the reverse.
While the Dow Jones index peeled off a record fourteen hundred points in a matter of days, the latest pending home sales index was moving in the opposite direction -- up strongly to its highest level in more than a year.
Pending sales jumped by 7.4 percent in the latest month, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Financial industry analysts had forecast a one and a half point DECLINE in the index for the month, but pent-up demand for housing, plus rock bottom bargain prices in many markets, convinced buyers that this is a good time to get off the sidelines and get into the game.
The pending home sales index measures new contracts for home purchases that haven't yet gone to closing, but should do so in the near future. It's a widely accepted predictor of sales activity two to three months down the road.
Mortgage rates and new loan applications also defied the negative spiral in the stock market: Applications for home purchases to be financed with conventional mortgages jumped by three percent last week, and new FHA applications were up by nearly 10 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's national survey.
Interest rates on 30 year fixed rate loans dropped to 5.9 percent and 15 year rates hit 5.7 percent.
Why the sharp divergence in performance between home real estate and Wall Street?
One key reason is that real estate -- which helped trigger the financial crisis through lending abuses and fraud -- has been undergoing its own correction on pricing and underwriting practices for the past two and a half years.
It's already taken its lumps, and has now reached a point where prices in former boom markets are so affordable that smart buyers are swooping in.
Also - although we keep hearing about the global credit squeeze and banks' unwillingness to lend money, that's definitely NOT the case in the mortgage market. There's plenty of money available - as long as you have a solid credit history and some downpayment cash.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA now account for well over 90 percent of home financing volume, and all three are backed by the federal government.
They've got a direct and virtually unlimited pipeline into the capital markets.
And with mortgage rates under 6 percent, no wonder consumers are shopping for -- and buying -- houses at great prices.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
-----------------------------------
Phoenix area progess is on my website at www.denismarque.com on the Welcome page and on the Buyer Help page. Pay us a visit!
.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Troubled Asset Relief Program
From Realty Times -
Washington Report: Paulson and Neel Kaskari by Kenneth R. Harney .. 10-13-08
Most people call it the $700 billion bailout, but in Washington it goes by the unglamorous name: TARP.
That stands for Troubled Asset Relief Program, and it's the centerpiece of the federal government's effort to take bad mortgages and other toxic financial products off the books of banks.
The idea is that by buying those assets at a fair market price, the banks will have the capital and confidence to begin making loans again to small businesses, home builders and individual consumers - thereby helping to ease the current credit freeze.
TARP is barely a week into official operation, but there are important developments underway that anyone interested in real estate ought to know about.
Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a 35-year-old whiz kid from his former Wall Street firm, Goldman Sachs, to run the entire program. His name is Neel Kaskari and he's an aeronautical engineer by training who used to work on satellite designs for NASA.
High on Paulson's and Kaskari's priority list will be to quickly start buying up defaulted "acquisition, development and construction" (ADC) loans made by local and regional banks to home builders. That's potentially huge for real estate because it could eventually set the stage for a slow revival of new home building.
Another target: Defaulted equity lines of credit and second mortgages made to home buyers during the boom years. You probably remember the wildly popular "piggyback" plans that allowed people to purchase homes with no downpayment.
Many of those second liens are gushing red ink in bank portfolios right now. By getting them off the books, the program should eventually allow local and regional banks to begin offering credit lines and seconds to homeowners who need them and qualify for them.
Though TARP will also be buying up billions of dollars of complex mortgage securities from giant banks -- and that's extremely important -- its help to small and medium-sized lending institutions on ADC loans and home equity lines may well have more immediate, tangible impacts on local real estate markets around the country.
Still another key priority: Reworking the repayment terms of tens of thousands of "underwater" and delinquent mortgages to allow home owners to remain in their houses and avoid foreclosure.
That, in turn, should gradually begin to have positive impacts on local real estate market conditions.
But don't expect miracles overnight. This is going to take months and years to fully work its way through the system.
In the meantime, Realty Times will keep a close eye on TARP -- and keep you posted on important developments.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Washington Report: Paulson and Neel Kaskari by Kenneth R. Harney .. 10-13-08
Most people call it the $700 billion bailout, but in Washington it goes by the unglamorous name: TARP.
That stands for Troubled Asset Relief Program, and it's the centerpiece of the federal government's effort to take bad mortgages and other toxic financial products off the books of banks.
The idea is that by buying those assets at a fair market price, the banks will have the capital and confidence to begin making loans again to small businesses, home builders and individual consumers - thereby helping to ease the current credit freeze.
TARP is barely a week into official operation, but there are important developments underway that anyone interested in real estate ought to know about.
Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a 35-year-old whiz kid from his former Wall Street firm, Goldman Sachs, to run the entire program. His name is Neel Kaskari and he's an aeronautical engineer by training who used to work on satellite designs for NASA.
High on Paulson's and Kaskari's priority list will be to quickly start buying up defaulted "acquisition, development and construction" (ADC) loans made by local and regional banks to home builders. That's potentially huge for real estate because it could eventually set the stage for a slow revival of new home building.
Another target: Defaulted equity lines of credit and second mortgages made to home buyers during the boom years. You probably remember the wildly popular "piggyback" plans that allowed people to purchase homes with no downpayment.
Many of those second liens are gushing red ink in bank portfolios right now. By getting them off the books, the program should eventually allow local and regional banks to begin offering credit lines and seconds to homeowners who need them and qualify for them.
Though TARP will also be buying up billions of dollars of complex mortgage securities from giant banks -- and that's extremely important -- its help to small and medium-sized lending institutions on ADC loans and home equity lines may well have more immediate, tangible impacts on local real estate markets around the country.
Still another key priority: Reworking the repayment terms of tens of thousands of "underwater" and delinquent mortgages to allow home owners to remain in their houses and avoid foreclosure.
That, in turn, should gradually begin to have positive impacts on local real estate market conditions.
But don't expect miracles overnight. This is going to take months and years to fully work its way through the system.
In the meantime, Realty Times will keep a close eye on TARP -- and keep you posted on important developments.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Market Conditions
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff October 10, 2008
The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
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The latest report from the National Association of Realtors indicates that pending home sales surged in August -- jumping 7.4 percent. This level is even higher than the August 2007 stats.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. "What we're seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region," he said. "It's unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we're hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales."
Regionally, the West saw the biggest jump for the month of August -- surging 18.4 percent.
The only region that was still below August 2007 levels is the South.
Expert predict that home prices will finally begin to rise again -- by about 2 to 3 percent next year. This comes with prediction about 30 year fixed rate mortgages staying in the 6 percent range throughout 2009.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
==============
I would add that data on my website shows that September was strong as well.
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Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Market Conditions & Total Mortgages in U.S.
Market Conditions by Realty Times Staff October 7, 2008
It appears that with the recent final woes in the nation and on Wall Street, the Dow fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2004 in the first hour on Monday, many consumers are holding back on their spending.
Even before the latest ailing markets, reports indicated that August had been the weakest for consumer spending in six months. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending was unchanged in August -- not a positive sign in an economy that needs jumpstarted.
The New York times reports that cutbacks seem to be across the board, from the automobile industry to fashion to restaurants. "Less than a month ago, Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at Global Insight, a forecasting service, predicted that domestic economic output would rise 1.2 percent in the third quarter." This number is currently closer to zero percent.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Some numbers heard on the radio. 95% of all mortgages are current and being paid every month. There are $14 Trillion total mortgages in the U.S. Thus 5% or $700 Billion are of concern. Interesting number, $700 Billion. Hmmmmm.
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It appears that with the recent final woes in the nation and on Wall Street, the Dow fell below 10,000 for the first time since 2004 in the first hour on Monday, many consumers are holding back on their spending.
Even before the latest ailing markets, reports indicated that August had been the weakest for consumer spending in six months. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending was unchanged in August -- not a positive sign in an economy that needs jumpstarted.
The New York times reports that cutbacks seem to be across the board, from the automobile industry to fashion to restaurants. "Less than a month ago, Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at Global Insight, a forecasting service, predicted that domestic economic output would rise 1.2 percent in the third quarter." This number is currently closer to zero percent.
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Some numbers heard on the radio. 95% of all mortgages are current and being paid every month. There are $14 Trillion total mortgages in the U.S. Thus 5% or $700 Billion are of concern. Interesting number, $700 Billion. Hmmmmm.
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Monday, September 29, 2008
THE BAILOUT - SURPRISE, SURPRISE!!
The bailout bill has failed in the U.S. House !!!!
What next, nobody knows at this stage. Probably Thursday before they can restart negotiations.
What next, nobody knows at this stage. Probably Thursday before they can restart negotiations.
Brief Overview of Bailout Plan
From Realty Times on September 29, 2008
Washington Report: Overview of Bailout Plan by Kenneth R. Harney
There's no question what's been dominating debate in Washington -- the Treasury's and Congress's plans to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of distressed mortgages from lenders and investors.
The fine print rules and regulations for the bailout plan won't be known for weeks, but here's a quick overview from a real estate perspective on how it's supposed to work:
At its core, the plan is all about taking home loans off lenders' and investors' books that are currently illiquid -- they can't be sold, or are extremely difficult to sell -- because no one is sure what they're really worth.
Consider this hypothetical example: Say you own a mortgage-backed bond that has 100 subprime home mortgages in it. At the moment, 24 of those loans are delinquent; but 76 are paying on time. That proportion is pretty close to reality, according to the latest delinquency numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Now, because there are serious defaults in the pool, there's a stigma attached to your subprime bond. The best offer you've heard is maybe 20 cents on the dollar - which is ridiculous because over three quarters of your loans are paying on time, and the monthly cash flows should be worth a lot more.
You need an organization or program to intervene, buy your mortgage pool for a fairer price. That, in turn, will allow you to take in some cash and make some new mortgages.
The buyer of your loans can now work to see whether the interest rates, monthly payments, and other features of the 24 “bad” mortgages can be modified to be more affordable for the home owners involved.
Let's say that over a period of three years, those modifications end up saving 15 of the 24 delinquent mortgages from going into foreclosure. The new owner of the pool now has 90 loans paying on time, making it a lot more valuable than it paid.
Although the example is simplified, it's pretty much what the bailout plan is all about: Taking undervalued assets, holding them for awhile and turning them into better assets -- lemons into lemonade -- and reselling them, maybe even at a profit.
It's not clear at the moment how successful this will be long-term. But by buying up incorrectly valued mortgages at a “fair” price, the government has a chance to pump new money into the market -- money for new home mortgages -- and even lower interest rates in the process.
Exactly how to do that -- with what rules and guidelines -- has been what all the noise in Washington has been about.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Washington Report: Overview of Bailout Plan by Kenneth R. Harney
There's no question what's been dominating debate in Washington -- the Treasury's and Congress's plans to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of distressed mortgages from lenders and investors.
The fine print rules and regulations for the bailout plan won't be known for weeks, but here's a quick overview from a real estate perspective on how it's supposed to work:
At its core, the plan is all about taking home loans off lenders' and investors' books that are currently illiquid -- they can't be sold, or are extremely difficult to sell -- because no one is sure what they're really worth.
Consider this hypothetical example: Say you own a mortgage-backed bond that has 100 subprime home mortgages in it. At the moment, 24 of those loans are delinquent; but 76 are paying on time. That proportion is pretty close to reality, according to the latest delinquency numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Now, because there are serious defaults in the pool, there's a stigma attached to your subprime bond. The best offer you've heard is maybe 20 cents on the dollar - which is ridiculous because over three quarters of your loans are paying on time, and the monthly cash flows should be worth a lot more.
You need an organization or program to intervene, buy your mortgage pool for a fairer price. That, in turn, will allow you to take in some cash and make some new mortgages.
The buyer of your loans can now work to see whether the interest rates, monthly payments, and other features of the 24 “bad” mortgages can be modified to be more affordable for the home owners involved.
Let's say that over a period of three years, those modifications end up saving 15 of the 24 delinquent mortgages from going into foreclosure. The new owner of the pool now has 90 loans paying on time, making it a lot more valuable than it paid.
Although the example is simplified, it's pretty much what the bailout plan is all about: Taking undervalued assets, holding them for awhile and turning them into better assets -- lemons into lemonade -- and reselling them, maybe even at a profit.
It's not clear at the moment how successful this will be long-term. But by buying up incorrectly valued mortgages at a “fair” price, the government has a chance to pump new money into the market -- money for new home mortgages -- and even lower interest rates in the process.
Exactly how to do that -- with what rules and guidelines -- has been what all the noise in Washington has been about.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Snag for FHA Hope
From Realty Times of September 22, 2008
Washington Report: Snag for FHA Hope
by Kenneth R. Harney
Although Wall Street's woes got a lot of attention on Capitol Hill last week, so did the continuing crisis in home foreclosures.
Starting October 1, home owners who owe more on their mortgage than their property is worth may be able to qualify for new FHA "Hope" refinancings that cut their debt, lower their interest rates and help them start rebuilding equity.
Sounds like a great opportunity for hundreds of thousands of hard-pressed owners, but there's a huge potential snag: Their lenders and loan servicers have to agree to participate, and they may not.
Why? Because among other requirements, lenders and bond market owners of mortgages will have to agree to write down the balances due on the loans below current market values for the house -- in other words, they'd need to take immediate and sizable losses on those mortgages.
At a House financial services hearing last Wednesday, a top Bank of America executive, Michael Gross, said Congress may have unrealistic assumptions about how many lenders and investors will agree to participate in Hope refinancings.
"My biggest concern," said Gross, "is that expectations for (this) program might be too high."
Rather than booking instant losses many banks and bond investors might prefer to work out customized loan modifications with borrowers instead -- renegotiating loan balances, reducing monthly payments and even interest rates - without having to deal with FHA.
But Congressional critics like House financial services committee chairman Barney Frank say the banks have already been doing that -- and foreclosure rates are still rising in many markets.
Frank is threatening to make massive -- though as yet unspecified -- changes in the federal rules governing home mortgage servicing that would force lenders to be more responsive to borrowers stuck with underwater properties.
In the meantime, borrowers who believe they might benefit from a Hope refinancing, should start talking with their servicers to see whether there's a chance. The law expressly makes the decision voluntary for all financial institutions -- borrowers cannot compel them or take them to court to force their hands.
But Barney Frank's ominous warning to lenders just might get some banks' attention and soften their stances on taking part in the Hope program. At the very least, home owners who talk to their lenders about Hope refinancings could open the door to customized loan modifications that help them out of their jams.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Washington Report: Snag for FHA Hope
by Kenneth R. Harney
Although Wall Street's woes got a lot of attention on Capitol Hill last week, so did the continuing crisis in home foreclosures.
Starting October 1, home owners who owe more on their mortgage than their property is worth may be able to qualify for new FHA "Hope" refinancings that cut their debt, lower their interest rates and help them start rebuilding equity.
Sounds like a great opportunity for hundreds of thousands of hard-pressed owners, but there's a huge potential snag: Their lenders and loan servicers have to agree to participate, and they may not.
Why? Because among other requirements, lenders and bond market owners of mortgages will have to agree to write down the balances due on the loans below current market values for the house -- in other words, they'd need to take immediate and sizable losses on those mortgages.
At a House financial services hearing last Wednesday, a top Bank of America executive, Michael Gross, said Congress may have unrealistic assumptions about how many lenders and investors will agree to participate in Hope refinancings.
"My biggest concern," said Gross, "is that expectations for (this) program might be too high."
Rather than booking instant losses many banks and bond investors might prefer to work out customized loan modifications with borrowers instead -- renegotiating loan balances, reducing monthly payments and even interest rates - without having to deal with FHA.
But Congressional critics like House financial services committee chairman Barney Frank say the banks have already been doing that -- and foreclosure rates are still rising in many markets.
Frank is threatening to make massive -- though as yet unspecified -- changes in the federal rules governing home mortgage servicing that would force lenders to be more responsive to borrowers stuck with underwater properties.
In the meantime, borrowers who believe they might benefit from a Hope refinancing, should start talking with their servicers to see whether there's a chance. The law expressly makes the decision voluntary for all financial institutions -- borrowers cannot compel them or take them to court to force their hands.
But Barney Frank's ominous warning to lenders just might get some banks' attention and soften their stances on taking part in the Hope program. At the very least, home owners who talk to their lenders about Hope refinancings could open the door to customized loan modifications that help them out of their jams.
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Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Friday, September 19, 2008
AN INTERESTING PIECE OF DATA
The following is an article in the Realty Times of 9-19-08 entitled "Investor Report: Small-scale Investors Beware by Kenneth R. Harney"
Small-scale rental home investors need to be aware of a new campaign by the nation's largest apartment owners that could have the effect of scaring away potential tenants.
The National Multi Housing Council is mounting the campaign to warn consumers about what it considers the imminent dangers of renting with landlords who don't own many properties and don't offer "professional management."
According to the council, "nearly 40 percent of today's foreclosures involve a single family house, condominium or other housing rented out" by private, small-scale owners, including investors.
"People who choose to rent these properties put themselves at risk for losing their lease, losing their security deposits, and having to move on short notice" if the owner cannot pay the mortgage and taxes and the unit goes to foreclosure, said the council in announcing its nationwide "rent from the pros" publicity campaign.
Douglas Bibby, president of the council, said the problem is serious, but heads-up tenants can get "peace of mind in a volatile housing market" by "renting at a professionally managed property," such as a large apartment complex.
The council, whose members own and manage hundreds of thousands of apartment units across the country, is the principal lobby group for the industry on Capitol Hill.
In a brochure prepared for the "rent from a pro" campaign, the group warns that "even renters aren't necessarily safe" from the foreclosure epidemic. "(I)f you choose to rent from a private individual, the risk of losing your rental home is very real," it says.
Asked by Realty Times for documentation of the "nearly 40 percent" figure used centrally in the campaign, a spokesman for the council said it came from a report "based on data from Realty Trac" that was cited on the CBS Evening News last March.
But the actual 38 percent foreclosure figure released by Realty Trac related to all non-owner occupied housing units, including second homes - many of which are never rented out or only rented seasonally.
Meanwhile, the largest private company in the U.S. involved in rental home investing, Dallas-based Home Vestors, whose 230 franchisees have bought over 36,000 houses in the past 12 years -- many of them rented out -- called the Multi Housing Council's campaign "a scare tactic" with no statistical basis.
John Hayes, president and CEO of Home Vestors, told RealtyTimes, "in our experience, we have not to my knowledge had a complaint or even heard of a franchisee ending up in foreclosure with a rental (home) property."
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
My own observations:
The key element of the article, which addresses the National Multi Housing Council's effort to drive renters back to Apartments, is the data which suggests "nearly 40 percent" of the National foreclosure problem is private investor rentals. That data, if true, certainly sheds a different light to our National problem of foreclosures.
Our local TV stations have highlighted cases of renters in single family homes being forced to move and losing deposits due to "investor foreclosures". But each has been a single report format - not suggesting a wide spread problem.
Back to the adage, liars figure, figures lie. Who to beleive?
.
Small-scale rental home investors need to be aware of a new campaign by the nation's largest apartment owners that could have the effect of scaring away potential tenants.
The National Multi Housing Council is mounting the campaign to warn consumers about what it considers the imminent dangers of renting with landlords who don't own many properties and don't offer "professional management."
According to the council, "nearly 40 percent of today's foreclosures involve a single family house, condominium or other housing rented out" by private, small-scale owners, including investors.
"People who choose to rent these properties put themselves at risk for losing their lease, losing their security deposits, and having to move on short notice" if the owner cannot pay the mortgage and taxes and the unit goes to foreclosure, said the council in announcing its nationwide "rent from the pros" publicity campaign.
Douglas Bibby, president of the council, said the problem is serious, but heads-up tenants can get "peace of mind in a volatile housing market" by "renting at a professionally managed property," such as a large apartment complex.
The council, whose members own and manage hundreds of thousands of apartment units across the country, is the principal lobby group for the industry on Capitol Hill.
In a brochure prepared for the "rent from a pro" campaign, the group warns that "even renters aren't necessarily safe" from the foreclosure epidemic. "(I)f you choose to rent from a private individual, the risk of losing your rental home is very real," it says.
Asked by Realty Times for documentation of the "nearly 40 percent" figure used centrally in the campaign, a spokesman for the council said it came from a report "based on data from Realty Trac" that was cited on the CBS Evening News last March.
But the actual 38 percent foreclosure figure released by Realty Trac related to all non-owner occupied housing units, including second homes - many of which are never rented out or only rented seasonally.
Meanwhile, the largest private company in the U.S. involved in rental home investing, Dallas-based Home Vestors, whose 230 franchisees have bought over 36,000 houses in the past 12 years -- many of them rented out -- called the Multi Housing Council's campaign "a scare tactic" with no statistical basis.
John Hayes, president and CEO of Home Vestors, told RealtyTimes, "in our experience, we have not to my knowledge had a complaint or even heard of a franchisee ending up in foreclosure with a rental (home) property."
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
My own observations:
The key element of the article, which addresses the National Multi Housing Council's effort to drive renters back to Apartments, is the data which suggests "nearly 40 percent" of the National foreclosure problem is private investor rentals. That data, if true, certainly sheds a different light to our National problem of foreclosures.
Our local TV stations have highlighted cases of renters in single family homes being forced to move and losing deposits due to "investor foreclosures". But each has been a single report format - not suggesting a wide spread problem.
Back to the adage, liars figure, figures lie. Who to beleive?
.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
THE STATE OF US FINANCES AND FORECLOSURES
The following statement recently appeared in a News Article:
"Lenders have repossessed a record 656,545 properties nationwide – or 8.6 of every 1,000 households in the US" - the data was attributed to ForeclosureS.com.
It concerns me that it is stated in terms of 1,000 households - in reality it is 0.86% of households, less than 1%, but sounds more ominous when they say it as they do. I do agree it is a very painful experience for those affected, and do not mean to minimize the impact to those folks, but let's at least keep it in a reasonable perspective.
In a similar fashion, August Foreclosures were a new record! However, have any of you heard that the percentage of foreclosures in August reflected a reduced rate of foreclosures over July? Stated differently, the rate of foreclosures dropped! Hmmm, don't guess you heard that.
How about the Bank Foreclosure Crisis. Some large banks have fallen, and no doubt others will follow. I can't prove the numbers I heard but this is what I heard. "The Feds are still looking at 117 banks that are potential Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns". The speaker then went on to say that there are 8500 banks in the U.S.
Hmmmm, if that's accurate, then the 0.0138% largest of the 8500 banks may be in trouble.
What is the old expression, liars figure, figures lie? Well, it does sell papers. Maybe this makes me guilty of being a liar?
Again, not trying to minimize the concerns we face but let's at least try to offer the whole story after we sell the paper.
.
"Lenders have repossessed a record 656,545 properties nationwide – or 8.6 of every 1,000 households in the US" - the data was attributed to ForeclosureS.com.
It concerns me that it is stated in terms of 1,000 households - in reality it is 0.86% of households, less than 1%, but sounds more ominous when they say it as they do. I do agree it is a very painful experience for those affected, and do not mean to minimize the impact to those folks, but let's at least keep it in a reasonable perspective.
In a similar fashion, August Foreclosures were a new record! However, have any of you heard that the percentage of foreclosures in August reflected a reduced rate of foreclosures over July? Stated differently, the rate of foreclosures dropped! Hmmm, don't guess you heard that.
How about the Bank Foreclosure Crisis. Some large banks have fallen, and no doubt others will follow. I can't prove the numbers I heard but this is what I heard. "The Feds are still looking at 117 banks that are potential Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns". The speaker then went on to say that there are 8500 banks in the U.S.
Hmmmm, if that's accurate, then the 0.0138% largest of the 8500 banks may be in trouble.
What is the old expression, liars figure, figures lie? Well, it does sell papers. Maybe this makes me guilty of being a liar?
Again, not trying to minimize the concerns we face but let's at least try to offer the whole story after we sell the paper.
.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
MARKET CONDITIONS
From Realty Times:
Market Conditions
by Realty Times Staff
When the government decided to place Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into its conservatorship, it opened up many different possible avenues the heal the ailing giants.
The New York Times reports that there haven't been any specific proposals made by lawmakers to date on what to do -- but in one option, some lawmaker "favors restoring the companies to health and then returning them to the way they were before they went into conservatorship, but with safeguards to prevent another crisis."
This seems a much milder approach than free-market theorists who favor a liquidation of the companies.
National Association of Realtors President, Richard Gaylord, issued the statement: "I commend Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Lockhart for their bold actions to bring stability and continued liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have always played a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners. Their critical mission must not be interrupted, and Sunday’s announcement goes a long way in making sure that does not happen."
Many experts hope that with this takeover will come restored confidence and more movement in the mortgage markets -- and maybe more affordable housing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Market Conditions
by Realty Times Staff
When the government decided to place Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into its conservatorship, it opened up many different possible avenues the heal the ailing giants.
The New York Times reports that there haven't been any specific proposals made by lawmakers to date on what to do -- but in one option, some lawmaker "favors restoring the companies to health and then returning them to the way they were before they went into conservatorship, but with safeguards to prevent another crisis."
This seems a much milder approach than free-market theorists who favor a liquidation of the companies.
National Association of Realtors President, Richard Gaylord, issued the statement: "I commend Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Lockhart for their bold actions to bring stability and continued liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have always played a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners. Their critical mission must not be interrupted, and Sunday’s announcement goes a long way in making sure that does not happen."
Many experts hope that with this takeover will come restored confidence and more movement in the mortgage markets -- and maybe more affordable housing.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
From the September 9, 2008 REALTY TIMES:
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
by Kenneth R. Harney
The latest national economic growth numbers should finally put to rest fears of a recession that could choke the real estate recovery now getting underway.
Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) came in at an upwardly-revised 3.3 percent -- far above the 1.9 percent the federal government had previously estimated.
Key reasons for the robust economic performance: Exports, which have been riding the weak dollar to record levels, and lower imports because the prices of foreign-made goods have been priced higher.
Why should anyone interested in real estate care about GDP? Well, number one, when the economic growth rate accelerates, consumer confidence in the economy rises. That, in turn, pulls potential buyers off the sidelines and opens the door to higher housing sales.
And sure enough, the consumer confidence numbers for August, released last week by the Conference Board, are up by 5 points.
We're already seeing some impressive jumps in home sales in places that haven't seen positive news in two to three years -- central Florida and even some of the hardest-hit parts of California. According to a new report from the real estate tracking firm, DataQuick, sales in southern California jumped 16.7 percent in July over June, and were 14 percent above the pace of July the year before.
Another encouraging sign: Last week's mortgage rates dropped to 6.39 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen year rates are still just under 6 percent. Applications for loans to buy homes jumped by 6 percent for conventional loans and an impressive 19.9 percent for FHA mortgages.
The federal government's latest quarterly survey on home prices reveals that the best price appreciation performances are now coming from areas that barely got noticed during the hottest years of the housing boom -- markets like Charleston, West Virginia ( up 6 percent for the year), Greenville, South Carolina (up 5.8 percent), Tulsa, Oklahoma (up by nearly 5 percent) and Scranton, Pennsylvania, where values were up by 4.7 percent..
All these markets -- and there are dozens more spread through Texas, the Midwest and the South -- never experienced the wild days of double digit appreciation.
They offer affordable housing prices and moderate - but steady and slow - price growth. They're not flashy -- never have been, probably never will be -- but that's why they're still producing positive appreciation numbers, while the boom to bust markets are not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
There are some who feel that the numbers on which this article is based are not really correct - that the Feds are leaving out some things that would negatively effect the GDP. October may give us a better indicator and hopefully still support the premise that the Recession is no longer a concern.
Real Estate Outlook: Recession Fears Put to Rest
by Kenneth R. Harney
The latest national economic growth numbers should finally put to rest fears of a recession that could choke the real estate recovery now getting underway.
Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) came in at an upwardly-revised 3.3 percent -- far above the 1.9 percent the federal government had previously estimated.
Key reasons for the robust economic performance: Exports, which have been riding the weak dollar to record levels, and lower imports because the prices of foreign-made goods have been priced higher.
Why should anyone interested in real estate care about GDP? Well, number one, when the economic growth rate accelerates, consumer confidence in the economy rises. That, in turn, pulls potential buyers off the sidelines and opens the door to higher housing sales.
And sure enough, the consumer confidence numbers for August, released last week by the Conference Board, are up by 5 points.
We're already seeing some impressive jumps in home sales in places that haven't seen positive news in two to three years -- central Florida and even some of the hardest-hit parts of California. According to a new report from the real estate tracking firm, DataQuick, sales in southern California jumped 16.7 percent in July over June, and were 14 percent above the pace of July the year before.
Another encouraging sign: Last week's mortgage rates dropped to 6.39 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen year rates are still just under 6 percent. Applications for loans to buy homes jumped by 6 percent for conventional loans and an impressive 19.9 percent for FHA mortgages.
The federal government's latest quarterly survey on home prices reveals that the best price appreciation performances are now coming from areas that barely got noticed during the hottest years of the housing boom -- markets like Charleston, West Virginia ( up 6 percent for the year), Greenville, South Carolina (up 5.8 percent), Tulsa, Oklahoma (up by nearly 5 percent) and Scranton, Pennsylvania, where values were up by 4.7 percent..
All these markets -- and there are dozens more spread through Texas, the Midwest and the South -- never experienced the wild days of double digit appreciation.
They offer affordable housing prices and moderate - but steady and slow - price growth. They're not flashy -- never have been, probably never will be -- but that's why they're still producing positive appreciation numbers, while the boom to bust markets are not.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
There are some who feel that the numbers on which this article is based are not really correct - that the Feds are leaving out some things that would negatively effect the GDP. October may give us a better indicator and hopefully still support the premise that the Recession is no longer a concern.
Monday, September 1, 2008
FHA Increasing Premiums
From Realty Times:
Washington Report: FHA Increasing Premiums
by Kenneth R. Harney
The politicians may have fled Washington for conventions and vacations, but there's been lots of action at the Federal Housing Administration that could affect home buyers and borrowers across the country.
Tops on the list: Forced by Congress to raise prices, FHA is increasing the mortgage premiums it charges applicants in its booming programs. Starting October 1st, upfront premiums will jump by one quarter of a percentage point -- from the current one and half percent of the loan amount to one and three quarters.
Annual premiums will remain in the half-point range. Home owners seeking refinancing under the expanded "FHASecure" program will be charged 3 points in premiums up front.
FHA had no choice but to raise premiums across the board following Congress's imposition of a one year moratorium on the agency's planned move to "risk based pricing" for all applicants, using credit scores and downpayment amounts.
Under those plans, people with high credit scores and downpayments would be charged lower insurance premiums. Borrowers with low scores and downpayments would be charged more - precisely as they are in the private mortgage insurance industry.
But Congress decided to keep the traditional "one-size-fits-all" cross-subsidization approach that FHA has used for decades, at least for another year.
Seller-paid downpayment gift assistance through third-party organizations such as Nehemiah and Ameridream -- which the agency says have contributed heavily to insurance claims -- will no longer be accepted by FHA as of October 1.
The net effect of the premium increase for most buyers: An extra $500 more in fees up front on a typical $200,000 mortgage.
At the same time, FHA announced a series consumer-friendly changes to the ways it handles loan modifications for borrowers in financial trouble. The bottom line is that when home owners fall behind and need to have their payment terms changed to enable them to stay in the house, fees will be tacked onto their principal debts and any rate hikes will be limited.
Finally, FHA's parent department -- HUD -- made good on its promise and sent its final version of real estate settlement and mortgage disclosure rules -- the so-called "RESPA reform" regulations - for final White House clearance. Though mortgage and real estate industry groups - along with 243 members of the House -- have criticized the rules as unwieldy and potentially costly to implement, HUD said consumers need better disclosures now, not later. The RESPA changes appear likely to be adopted before the next administration arrives in January -- tossing a political hot potato to either John McCain or Barack Obama.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Washington Report: FHA Increasing Premiums
by Kenneth R. Harney
The politicians may have fled Washington for conventions and vacations, but there's been lots of action at the Federal Housing Administration that could affect home buyers and borrowers across the country.
Tops on the list: Forced by Congress to raise prices, FHA is increasing the mortgage premiums it charges applicants in its booming programs. Starting October 1st, upfront premiums will jump by one quarter of a percentage point -- from the current one and half percent of the loan amount to one and three quarters.
Annual premiums will remain in the half-point range. Home owners seeking refinancing under the expanded "FHASecure" program will be charged 3 points in premiums up front.
FHA had no choice but to raise premiums across the board following Congress's imposition of a one year moratorium on the agency's planned move to "risk based pricing" for all applicants, using credit scores and downpayment amounts.
Under those plans, people with high credit scores and downpayments would be charged lower insurance premiums. Borrowers with low scores and downpayments would be charged more - precisely as they are in the private mortgage insurance industry.
But Congress decided to keep the traditional "one-size-fits-all" cross-subsidization approach that FHA has used for decades, at least for another year.
Seller-paid downpayment gift assistance through third-party organizations such as Nehemiah and Ameridream -- which the agency says have contributed heavily to insurance claims -- will no longer be accepted by FHA as of October 1.
The net effect of the premium increase for most buyers: An extra $500 more in fees up front on a typical $200,000 mortgage.
At the same time, FHA announced a series consumer-friendly changes to the ways it handles loan modifications for borrowers in financial trouble. The bottom line is that when home owners fall behind and need to have their payment terms changed to enable them to stay in the house, fees will be tacked onto their principal debts and any rate hikes will be limited.
Finally, FHA's parent department -- HUD -- made good on its promise and sent its final version of real estate settlement and mortgage disclosure rules -- the so-called "RESPA reform" regulations - for final White House clearance. Though mortgage and real estate industry groups - along with 243 members of the House -- have criticized the rules as unwieldy and potentially costly to implement, HUD said consumers need better disclosures now, not later. The RESPA changes appear likely to be adopted before the next administration arrives in January -- tossing a political hot potato to either John McCain or Barack Obama.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Home Sales Get a Much Needed Boost
NATIONAL REALTY NEWS reports on a Freddie Mac announcement - the full text of the article appears below:
Home Values Up in Several Parts of the Country; Thirteen States Registered Price Gains
Regional performance data appears the the bottom of the article.
Regional performance data appears the the bottom of the article.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Prices Up In Certain Markets
August 7, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: Prices Up In Certain Markets
by Kenneth R. Harney
When you're in a long, slow recovery period in real estate, even the slightest hint of good news can be significant.
We saw that last week, when the controversial Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index came out.
You may have seen the headlines or watched the gloomy news reports on TV: Prices were down again -- this time by nearly 16 percent year to year -- in 20 of the largest U.S. markets.
Now even if you accept the validity of that index as a measure of what's really going on in prices nationwide -- and we have always had serious doubts about it -- when you scratch below the surface of the latest monthly report, you find some surprisingly positive developments that got little or no media attention.
Number one: Prices in seven of Case-Shiller's top markets actually were UP for the month. They include Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland and Dallas.
Number two: The month to month change for the entire index was a minus nine tenths of one percent. We all know the index is disproportionately weighted toward the most volatile, high-cost markets of the boom years, so when the monthly change is less than one percent, it begins to look like the curve is finally flattening out.
That's definitely positive news, especially coming from the most bearish source in the real estate marketplace.
In other economic developments affecting housing this week, recession fears were put off for still another quarter, as the U.S. economy continued to expand and defy the doomsayers. The Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) rose at a 1.9 percent rate in the second quarter, up from nine tenths of one percent in the first quarter.
Mortgage rates dropped to 6.46 percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen years rates slid below the 6 percent mark again, down from 6.1 percent last week. Both are lower than year ago levels.
The main negative at work at the moment is the unemployment rate, which jumped again last month and now stands at 5.7 percent. However, the Labor Department just revised its employment numbers upward by 26,000 for the prior two months. As a result, according to forecast economist Dr. Orawin Velz of the Mortgage Bankers Association, "the decline in employment in the past two months is less severe than originally reported."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real Estate Outlook: Prices Up In Certain Markets
by Kenneth R. Harney
When you're in a long, slow recovery period in real estate, even the slightest hint of good news can be significant.
We saw that last week, when the controversial Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index came out.
You may have seen the headlines or watched the gloomy news reports on TV: Prices were down again -- this time by nearly 16 percent year to year -- in 20 of the largest U.S. markets.
Now even if you accept the validity of that index as a measure of what's really going on in prices nationwide -- and we have always had serious doubts about it -- when you scratch below the surface of the latest monthly report, you find some surprisingly positive developments that got little or no media attention.
Number one: Prices in seven of Case-Shiller's top markets actually were UP for the month. They include Denver, Atlanta, Boston, Minneapolis, Charlotte, Portland and Dallas.
Number two: The month to month change for the entire index was a minus nine tenths of one percent. We all know the index is disproportionately weighted toward the most volatile, high-cost markets of the boom years, so when the monthly change is less than one percent, it begins to look like the curve is finally flattening out.
That's definitely positive news, especially coming from the most bearish source in the real estate marketplace.
In other economic developments affecting housing this week, recession fears were put off for still another quarter, as the U.S. economy continued to expand and defy the doomsayers. The Gross Domestic Product (or GDP) rose at a 1.9 percent rate in the second quarter, up from nine tenths of one percent in the first quarter.
Mortgage rates dropped to 6.46 percent for 30 year fixed rate loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Fifteen years rates slid below the 6 percent mark again, down from 6.1 percent last week. Both are lower than year ago levels.
The main negative at work at the moment is the unemployment rate, which jumped again last month and now stands at 5.7 percent. However, the Labor Department just revised its employment numbers upward by 26,000 for the prior two months. As a result, according to forecast economist Dr. Orawin Velz of the Mortgage Bankers Association, "the decline in employment in the past two months is less severe than originally reported."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2008 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
MARKET CONDITIONS - NEXT MORTGAGE CRISIS
A Realty Times article from New York Times data that suggests we are not out of the woods yet.
A SECOND ROUND IN THE FUTURE?
Doesn't exactly give you that warm feeling, does it?
.
A SECOND ROUND IN THE FUTURE?
Doesn't exactly give you that warm feeling, does it?
.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Charitable Downpayment Assistance Legislation
August 1, 2008
The FHA bill passed by congress and signed by Bush this week eliminated charitable downpayment assistance like Ameridream and Nehemiah.
Last night, Congress introduced bipartisan legislation, H.R. 6694 that would reauthorize and reform charitable downpayment assistance. This bill would remedy a harmful provision in the new housing law which limits homeownership opportunities for low and middle-income Americans. The legislation, sponsored by U.S. Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Gary Miller (R-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), and Christopher Shays (R-CT) reauthorizes and reforms charitable downpayment assistance funded in part by sellers, which has helped over one million families and individuals become homeowners since 1999. The program was eliminated by legislation signed by President Bush on July 30, 2008.
The Green-Miller-Waters-Shays plan would re-authorize and reform non-profit downpayment assistance and secure it as an allowable source for FHA borrowers. The bill seeks to ensure that providers of the downpayment assistance operate in a transparent manner to guard against conflicts of interest. The bill also includes language to ensure that FHA maintains its financial stability by permanently authorizing the Secretary to assess higher premiums to higher risk borrowers.
It is important that you contact your elected officials in Congress and tell them that you support downpayment assistance and urge them to support H. R. 6694. To reach your elected officials, please call the US Capitol Switchboard at 202.224.3121.
To learn how you can support it, visit http://www.supporthomeownership.com.
We can only hope Congress will look favorably upon this bill.
.
The FHA bill passed by congress and signed by Bush this week eliminated charitable downpayment assistance like Ameridream and Nehemiah.
Last night, Congress introduced bipartisan legislation, H.R. 6694 that would reauthorize and reform charitable downpayment assistance. This bill would remedy a harmful provision in the new housing law which limits homeownership opportunities for low and middle-income Americans. The legislation, sponsored by U.S. Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Gary Miller (R-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA), and Christopher Shays (R-CT) reauthorizes and reforms charitable downpayment assistance funded in part by sellers, which has helped over one million families and individuals become homeowners since 1999. The program was eliminated by legislation signed by President Bush on July 30, 2008.
The Green-Miller-Waters-Shays plan would re-authorize and reform non-profit downpayment assistance and secure it as an allowable source for FHA borrowers. The bill seeks to ensure that providers of the downpayment assistance operate in a transparent manner to guard against conflicts of interest. The bill also includes language to ensure that FHA maintains its financial stability by permanently authorizing the Secretary to assess higher premiums to higher risk borrowers.
It is important that you contact your elected officials in Congress and tell them that you support downpayment assistance and urge them to support H. R. 6694. To reach your elected officials, please call the US Capitol Switchboard at 202.224.3121.
To learn how you can support it, visit http://www.supporthomeownership.com.
We can only hope Congress will look favorably upon this bill.
.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
BUSH SIGNS BILL
National Association of REALTORS®
Summary of Key Provisions of H.R. 3221 - The Housing Stimulus Bill (as of 7/30/08)
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H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008,” passed the House on July 23, 2008, by a vote of 272-152. On Saturday, July 26, 2008, the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 72-13. The President signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:
GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest free loan).
FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.
Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs – codifies existing FHA proposal to prohibit the use of downpayment assistance programs funded by those who have a financial interest in the sale; does not prohibit other assistance programs provided by nonprofits funded by other sources, churches, employers, or family members. This prohibition does not go into effect until October 1, 2008.
VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.
GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.
CDBG Funding – Provides $4 billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.
LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.
Summary of Key Provisions of H.R. 3221 - The Housing Stimulus Bill (as of 7/30/08)
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H.R. 3221, the “Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008,” passed the House on July 23, 2008, by a vote of 272-152. On Saturday, July 26, 2008, the Senate passed the bill by a vote of 72-13. The President signed the bill on July 30, 2008. The bill includes the following provisions:
GSE Reform – including a strong independent regulator, and permanent conforming loan limits up to the greater of $417,000 or 115% local area median home price, capped at $625,500. The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
FHA Reform – including permanent FHA loan limits at the greater of $271,050 or 115% of local area median home price, capped at $625,500; streamlined processing for FHA condos; reforms to the HECM program, and reforms to the FHA manufactured housing program. The downpayment requirement on FHA loans will go up to 3.5% (from 3%). The effective date for reforms is immediate upon enactment, but the loan limits will not go into effect until the expiration of the Economic Stimulus limits (December 31, 2008).
Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $7500 tax credit that would be would be available for any qualified purchase between April 8, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The credit is repayable over 15 years (making it, in effect, an interest free loan).
FHA foreclosure rescue – development of a refinance program for homebuyers with problematic subprime loans. Lenders would write down qualified mortgages to 85% of the current appraised value and qualified borrowers would get a new FHA 30-year fixed mortgage at 90% of appraised value. Borrowers would have to share 50% of all future appreciation with FHA. The loan limit for this program is $550,440 nationwide. Program is effective on October 1, 2008.
Seller-funded downpayment assistance programs – codifies existing FHA proposal to prohibit the use of downpayment assistance programs funded by those who have a financial interest in the sale; does not prohibit other assistance programs provided by nonprofits funded by other sources, churches, employers, or family members. This prohibition does not go into effect until October 1, 2008.
VA loan limits – temporarily increases the VA home loan guarantee loan limits to the same level as the Economic Stimulus limits through December 31, 2008.
Risk-based pricing – puts a moratorium on FHA using risk-based pricing for one year. This provision is effective from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2009.
GSE Stabilization – includes language proposed by the Treasury Department to authorize Treasury to make loans to and buy stock from the GSEs to make sure that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae could not fail.
Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority – authorizes $10 billion in mortgage revenue bonds for refinancing subprime mortgages.
National Affordable Housing Trust Fund – Develops a Trust Fund funded by a percentage of profits from the GSEs. In its first years, the Trust Fund would cover costs of any defaulted loans in FHA foreclosure program. In out years, the Trust Fund would be used for the development of affordable housing.
CDBG Funding – Provides $4 billion in neighborhood revitalization funds for communities to purchase foreclosed homes.
LIHTC – Modernizes the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program to make it more efficient.
Loan Originator Requirements – Strengthens the existing state-run nationwide mortgage originator licensing and registration system (and requires a parallel HUD system for states that fail to participate). Federal bank regulators will establish a parallel registration system for FDIC-insured banks. The purpose is to prevent fraud and require minimum licensing and education requirements. The bill exempts those who only perform real estate brokerage activities and are licensed or registered by a state, unless they are compensated by a lender, mortgage broker, or other loan originator.
Foreclosure Relief Comes To Washington
An article in Realty Times that hopefully will be of value to those in need:
LEARN ABOUT NACA
The system is at least working for some!
LEARN ABOUT NACA
The system is at least working for some!
Sunday, July 27, 2008
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley and Greater Phoenix markets provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 07/23 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
Departing from the previous format, during the last 2 weeks Listings up 81, Pending up 53 and Sales down 99. With Active and Pending at 21079 total and divided by sales of gives us 9.8 months of inventory. Based on Active only, that would be 8.3 months.
Again, under a new format, Total Phoenix Area MLS Actives, during the last 2 weeks, up by 308, Pending by 173 and Sold down by 79. This is 11 months inventory, but based on Sales only it is 9.4 months.
MLS INVENTORY - 07/23 - TOTAL VALLEY
Prices continue to decline, driven mostly by sale of REO (Bank owned) properties and Short Sales.
As stated before, it is predicted that the Valley will double in population in 20 years. Good time to buy - I think so!
On a short term time line, the President will likely sign the Mortgage Relief package from Congress, which should help the economy begin to turn upward. Not a total solution, but hopefully will help folks to become a little more positive about tomorrow.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
Departing from the previous format, during the last 2 weeks Listings up 81, Pending up 53 and Sales down 99. With Active and Pending at 21079 total and divided by sales of gives us 9.8 months of inventory. Based on Active only, that would be 8.3 months.
Again, under a new format, Total Phoenix Area MLS Actives, during the last 2 weeks, up by 308, Pending by 173 and Sold down by 79. This is 11 months inventory, but based on Sales only it is 9.4 months.
Prices continue to decline, driven mostly by sale of REO (Bank owned) properties and Short Sales.
As stated before, it is predicted that the Valley will double in population in 20 years. Good time to buy - I think so!
On a short term time line, the President will likely sign the Mortgage Relief package from Congress, which should help the economy begin to turn upward. Not a total solution, but hopefully will help folks to become a little more positive about tomorrow.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley and Greater Phoenix markets provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 07/08 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings (active and pending) in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by 733 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow were 466 of those. Sales were up by 52 (2.4%). Summer months are not when a lot of folks are out looking, most make there move earlier to close before schools reopen.
With the total listings at 20964 and SALES at 2252, we now have 9.3 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Phoenix data is compared to a report of 5 weeks ago.
Results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 470 to 60926, while contracts and sales both increased (by 54 and 34 respectively.
We now have 10.7 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
MLS INVENTORY - 07/08 - TOTAL VALLEY
Prices continue to decline, driven mostly by sale of REPO (Bank owned) properties and Short Sales. Where it will end is anybody's guess, but it is predicted that the Valley will double in population in 20 years. Eventually, the market will begin to turn - we are the nations leader in employment increases which will begin to attract new folks from areas not so fortunate.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings (active and pending) in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by 733 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow were 466 of those. Sales were up by 52 (2.4%). Summer months are not when a lot of folks are out looking, most make there move earlier to close before schools reopen.
With the total listings at 20964 and SALES at 2252, we now have 9.3 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Phoenix data is compared to a report of 5 weeks ago.
Results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 470 to 60926, while contracts and sales both increased (by 54 and 34 respectively.
We now have 10.7 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
Prices continue to decline, driven mostly by sale of REPO (Bank owned) properties and Short Sales. Where it will end is anybody's guess, but it is predicted that the Valley will double in population in 20 years. Eventually, the market will begin to turn - we are the nations leader in employment increases which will begin to attract new folks from areas not so fortunate.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
MOLD AND RADON
A recent edition of Realty Times includes an excellent response to questions relating to Mold and Radon. The author of "Ask Realty Times", Peter G. Miller, has given us a clear and concise guideline as it relates to these subjects:
MOLD AND RADON
Be sure to click on and read The Environmental Protection Agency and The New York Times articles referred to by Mr. Miller in his article.
You may also wish to pursue the matter in more depth by obtaining a copy of Leonard Cole's book, Element of Risk, The Politics of Radon.
Our thanks to Mr. Miller for some long overdue guidance.
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Be sure to click on and read The Environmental Protection Agency and The New York Times articles referred to by Mr. Miller in his article.
You may also wish to pursue the matter in more depth by obtaining a copy of Leonard Cole's book, Element of Risk, The Politics of Radon.
Our thanks to Mr. Miller for some long overdue guidance.
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Monday, July 7, 2008
City of Phoenix Foreclosure Assistance
A new resource for those facing foreclosure:
New City of Phoenix Website - Foreclosure Help
The City of Phoenix is working actively to address the challenges posed by the foreclosure crisis. Their Web page features an array of resources to help you deal with a foreclosure situation whether you are a homeowner, a concerned resident or a prospective homebuyer.
The City of Phoenix is working actively to address the challenges posed by the foreclosure crisis. Their Web page features an array of resources to help you deal with a foreclosure situation whether you are a homeowner, a concerned resident or a prospective homebuyer.
Many Metros to See No Job Growth
An article from Realty Times:
No Job Growth as Mortgage Crisis Worsens
And if you don't read the article, you will miss this nugget:
"Peak-to-peak employment gains (the difference between the current job level peak and the employment peak prior to the 2001 recession) were led by Phoenix at 307,100 jobs; Houston at 298,300; Washington at 289,400; Riverside at 233,800; and Miami at 220,600."
Hey, we must be doing something right!
And if you don't read the article, you will miss this nugget:
"Peak-to-peak employment gains (the difference between the current job level peak and the employment peak prior to the 2001 recession) were led by Phoenix at 307,100 jobs; Houston at 298,300; Washington at 289,400; Riverside at 233,800; and Miami at 220,600."
Hey, we must be doing something right!
Friday, July 4, 2008
A dozen ways to get a down payment
An article By Marcie Geffner in Bankrate.com:
"The chief advantage of a down payment today is simply the ability to qualify for a loan, since only a handful of so-called "zero-down" loan programs still exist. Yet down payments have other benefits, too".
Get a Down Payment
Several good suggestions, many obvious, but a few new ones as well.
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"The chief advantage of a down payment today is simply the ability to qualify for a loan, since only a handful of so-called "zero-down" loan programs still exist. Yet down payments have other benefits, too".
Several good suggestions, many obvious, but a few new ones as well.
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Thursday, July 3, 2008
Real Estate Outlook: Resales Up, Rate Dip
An article from Realty Times.com:
"Take the latest home resale report: Sales were up by 2 percent nationally in May, and up 5.5 in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the Northeast".
Real Estate Outlook
That's the good news - now read the rest of the article.
Ah, for the good old days of 2005.
Good old days? But 2005 was only 3 very loooooooong years ago!
"Take the latest home resale report: Sales were up by 2 percent nationally in May, and up 5.5 in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the Northeast".
That's the good news - now read the rest of the article.
Ah, for the good old days of 2005.
Good old days? But 2005 was only 3 very loooooooong years ago!
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Helping Homeowners Keep Their Home
If you or a family member, a co-worker, a friend, or a neighbor behind on payments, make sure you or they read the following:
*Don't ignore the letters from your lender
*Contact your lender immediately
*Contact a HUD-approved Housing Counseling Agency
*Toll FREE (800) 569-4287
*TTY (800) 877-8339
And most important, visit the following website:
Helping Homeowners Keep Their Home
FHA has relaxed many former requirements to get the home lending process in a healing process. It is there for you to use!
*Don't ignore the letters from your lender
*Contact your lender immediately
*Contact a HUD-approved Housing Counseling Agency
*Toll FREE (800) 569-4287
*TTY (800) 877-8339
And most important, visit the following website:
FHA has relaxed many former requirements to get the home lending process in a healing process. It is there for you to use!
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley and Greater Phoenix markets provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 06/25 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by only 20 from 3 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow up by 183 but sales were down by 83 (3.6%).
With the ACTIVE listings at 18174 and SALES at 2200, we now have 8.72 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
In the past week I have noted increased activity in both my own office and in the title companies I have visited. Is it a trend in the making or just a blip on the radar screen. We should know more by the next report from 1st American Title.
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I will report of Greater Phoenix in the next report.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by only 20 from 3 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow up by 183 but sales were down by 83 (3.6%).
With the ACTIVE listings at 18174 and SALES at 2200, we now have 8.72 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
In the past week I have noted increased activity in both my own office and in the title companies I have visited. Is it a trend in the making or just a blip on the radar screen. We should know more by the next report from 1st American Title.
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I will report of Greater Phoenix in the next report.
Gas Prices Fuel Urban Desire
Again, Courtesy of the Realty Times, a good article from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.
Gasoline ... is affecting your choice on where to live!
Locally, some of our extremely distant communities are feeling a major pinch on home sales - Johnson Ranch and Maricopa being prime examples.
Gasoline ... is affecting your choice on where to live!
Locally, some of our extremely distant communities are feeling a major pinch on home sales - Johnson Ranch and Maricopa being prime examples.
Friday, June 27, 2008
FHA Extends Financing for Immediate Purchase of Foreclosed Homes
From RISMedia Real Estate News, Bush has announced a policy to expedite immediate sale of vacant foreclosed properties.
FHA IMMEDIATE SALE OF FORECLOSED PROPERTIES
A little speed up of clearing vacant properties will reduce vandalism, neighborhood blight and loosen up some of the funding needed to get through the housing crisis.
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A little speed up of clearing vacant properties will reduce vandalism, neighborhood blight and loosen up some of the funding needed to get through the housing crisis.
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Thursday, June 19, 2008
SPECULATION ..... DRIVES OIL MARKET
This insightful article from Petrostrategies.org is definitely worth a read!
Click on the "Oil & Gas Blog" and find the June 8 article with the following title:
Speculation, Not Market Fundamentals Drives Oil Market
Let see if Wall Street can duck this for long!
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Click on the "Oil & Gas Blog" and find the June 8 article with the following title:
Let see if Wall Street can duck this for long!
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Sunday, June 15, 2008
PENDING SALES UP NATIONALLY FOR APRIL
An article from CNNMoney.com:
Pending home sales up 6.3%; prices seen falling:
The number of homes under contract to be sold rose unexpectedly..
"The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) rose to 88.2 in April, up 6.3% from March's reading of 83 and the highest level since October. The increase defied the consensus estimate of economists polled by Briefing.com, which forecast pending sales to fall by 1%.
Despite the increase, April's reading remains down 13.1% from the same period last year, and off 29% from the index's peak in April 2005."
We will all remember what 2005 looked like, won't we?
Pending home sales up 6.3%; prices seen falling:
"The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) rose to 88.2 in April, up 6.3% from March's reading of 83 and the highest level since October. The increase defied the consensus estimate of economists polled by Briefing.com, which forecast pending sales to fall by 1%.
Despite the increase, April's reading remains down 13.1% from the same period last year, and off 29% from the index's peak in April 2005."
We will all remember what 2005 looked like, won't we?
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 06/04 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by 518 from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow decreased by 155 but sales were up by 121 (5.3%).
With the ACTIVE listings at 18194 and SALES at 2283, we now have 7.96 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 1246 to 52778, and while new contracts in escrow did decrease by 322, sales increased by 296. We now have 9.3 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
MLS INVENTORY - 06.04 - TOTAL VALLEY
It is my growing impression from recent reports that most of the sales in our current market are Bank Owned and Short Sale properties. These sales are frequently at much lower prices than the prevailing MLS listing resales. Appraisers will take these lower sales into account when valuing your home so don't be counting on selling at higher prices than the comparables including repos and Short Sales if you list your home. That is not good news for those in distress but Short Sales may be a way to avoid foreclosure. Not easy, but better that a 3 to 4 year delay in your ability to buy another home in the future.
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Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY went down by 518 from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow decreased by 155 but sales were up by 121 (5.3%).
With the ACTIVE listings at 18194 and SALES at 2283, we now have 7.96 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 1246 to 52778, and while new contracts in escrow did decrease by 322, sales increased by 296. We now have 9.3 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
It is my growing impression from recent reports that most of the sales in our current market are Bank Owned and Short Sale properties. These sales are frequently at much lower prices than the prevailing MLS listing resales. Appraisers will take these lower sales into account when valuing your home so don't be counting on selling at higher prices than the comparables including repos and Short Sales if you list your home. That is not good news for those in distress but Short Sales may be a way to avoid foreclosure. Not easy, but better that a 3 to 4 year delay in your ability to buy another home in the future.
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Thursday, May 29, 2008
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 05/28 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY decreased by 40 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow decreased by 55 but sales were up by 180 (8.9%). Pretty positive gain!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18845 and SALES & PENDING at 5689, we now have 8.7 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 95 to 54220, new contracts in escrow were up by 26, and sales completed were up by 446. We now have 10.1 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
MLS INVENTORY - 05/28 - TOTAL VALLEY
Keep your eye on the market, we may be stabilizing.
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Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY decreased by 40 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow decreased by 55 but sales were up by 180 (8.9%). Pretty positive gain!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18845 and SALES & PENDING at 5689, we now have 8.7 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 95 to 54220, new contracts in escrow were up by 26, and sales completed were up by 446. We now have 10.1 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
Keep your eye on the market, we may be stabilizing.
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Watch the Midyear Housing Market Update Video from the National Association of Realtors
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has concluded its mid-year legislative meetings.
One of the highlights of the meeting was a presentation by the NAR Chief Economist.
2008 NAR President-Elect Charles McMillan and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun provided Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo attendees with news on the housing market and when we can expect a recovery.
Click here to watch the video.
A positive message can brighten the future for all of us.
The video is Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
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One of the highlights of the meeting was a presentation by the NAR Chief Economist.
2008 NAR President-Elect Charles McMillan and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun provided Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo attendees with news on the housing market and when we can expect a recovery.
A positive message can brighten the future for all of us.
The video is Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
.
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 05/13 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY decreased by 95 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 171 and sales were up by 39 (2.0%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18885 and SALES at 2004, we now have 10.6 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, up slightly from 2 weeks ago.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 1330 to 54315, new contracts in escrow were up by 370, and sales completed were up by 540 (11.9%). We now have 9.3 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
MLS INVENTORY - 05/13 - TOTAL VALLEY
Keep the good times rolling.
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Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings in the SOUTHEAST VALLEY decreased by 95 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 171 and sales were up by 39 (2.0%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18885 and SALES at 2004, we now have 10.6 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, up slightly from 2 weeks ago.
Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 1330 to 54315, new contracts in escrow were up by 370, and sales completed were up by 540 (11.9%). We now have 9.3 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.
Keep the good times rolling.
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Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Fannie Mae Removes High Downpayment Provisions
From NewsGeni.us an article from CNNMoney.com:
Fannie Mae Removes High Downpayment Provisions
This will improve the sale of mortgages by many lenders, thus loosening up the money available to lend on new mortgages.
In parallel, Congress is still kicking around a credit relief program to stimulate the lending process with the aim of resolving the Housing Crisis sooner. Bush is prepared to veto since it's the taxpayers that will pay the price ultimately.
Here is a chance to read the process and progress of such a bill through our congress:
House Bill H.R.3221
Why should I worry, the Government will fix it - if I live long enough.
-30-
Fannie Mae Removes High Downpayment Provisions
This will improve the sale of mortgages by many lenders, thus loosening up the money available to lend on new mortgages.
In parallel, Congress is still kicking around a credit relief program to stimulate the lending process with the aim of resolving the Housing Crisis sooner. Bush is prepared to veto since it's the taxpayers that will pay the price ultimately.
Here is a chance to read the process and progress of such a bill through our congress:
House Bill H.R.3221
Why should I worry, the Government will fix it - if I live long enough.
-30-
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
The latest projection from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
Thursday, May 8, 2008
PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS
The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 05/07 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings decreased by 547 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 51 and sales were up by 121(6.6%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18986 and SALES at 1965, we now have 9.7 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, down from over 10.8 months.
The South East Valley provided most of the positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area which showed the listings decreased by only 217 to 55428, new contracts in escrow were down by 27, althougth sales completed were up by 407 (9.0%).
MLS INVENTORY - 05/07 - TOTAL VALLEY
Keep up the good work, folks.
.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings decreased by 547 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 51 and sales were up by 121(6.6%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 18986 and SALES at 1965, we now have 9.7 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, down from over 10.8 months.
The South East Valley provided most of the positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area which showed the listings decreased by only 217 to 55428, new contracts in escrow were down by 27, althougth sales completed were up by 407 (9.0%).
Keep up the good work, folks.
.
Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer
Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors®:
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008
A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”
The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.
Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.
Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.
"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."
New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.
# # #
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.
Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Avoiding Mortgage Fraud
Although Courtesy of the Realty Times, this makes two fine articles in a row from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.
Caveat Emptor is Latin for "Let the buyer beware".
Some surprising numbers from the FBI regarding mortgage fraud and Brodericks cautions on how to avoid it. Do your homework, folks.
Caveat Emptor is Latin for "Let the buyer beware".
Some surprising numbers from the FBI regarding mortgage fraud and Brodericks cautions on how to avoid it. Do your homework, folks.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
So Many Homes, So Few Buyers
Courtesy of the Realty Times:
So Many Homes, So Few Buyers
A somewhat philosophical look at the market from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.
So Many Homes, So Few Buyers
A somewhat philosophical look at the market from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.
Friday, April 25, 2008
PHOENIX SALES & INVENTORY REPORT
A two week later "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.
This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 04/23 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listings decreased by 156 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.1% and sales up by 79 (4.5%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 19533 and SALES at 1844, we now have 10.8 months of inventory in the system for the South East Valley, down from over 12 months.
For the entire Phoenix MLS area, more good news. Inventory down modestly, new contracts accepted (pending) up by 982, and sales closed 152.
MLS INVENTORY - 04/23 - TOTAL VALLEY
"In the right direction."
A new report: VALLEY LISTINGS VS SOLDS
Inventory is 2 times the Jan. 2002 level but declining - Sales are at 1/2 the Jan.2005 peak but improving.
Keep up the good work, folks.
.
This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listings decreased by 156 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.1% and sales up by 79 (4.5%). The positive news continues!
With the ACTIVE listings at 19533 and SALES at 1844, we now have 10.8 months of inventory in the system for the South East Valley, down from over 12 months.
For the entire Phoenix MLS area, more good news. Inventory down modestly, new contracts accepted (pending) up by 982, and sales closed 152.
"In the right direction."
A new report:
Inventory is 2 times the Jan. 2002 level but declining - Sales are at 1/2 the Jan.2005 peak but improving.
Keep up the good work, folks.
.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
A POSITIVE COMMENT FROM THE MEDIA
The March 31, 2008 NEWSWEEK contains an article regarding the economy entitled "COOLER HEADS PREVAIL".
The final paragraph states "With all of Washington standing by to protect the economic system, you can bet on eventual recovery, even if there's a recession to get through. So use tough times to shop for a house, a cheaper mortgage, a good stock. When the cycle turns back up, you'll be sitting on top of the world."
Wow, pretty succinct. Meantime, the word on the financial street is that we may well be at the end of the bad news from the banking world. We did lose 250 mortgage companies but I suspect they did it to themselves by taking to much risk. Meanwhile, the loan applications based on "stated income" are slowly getting phased out, a common investor vehicle for buying property.
On the other side, FHA has gone through some major changes - they are the loan of the moment for accepting lower FICO scores, lower down payments, good interet rates, and a new maximum for the Phoenix area of $386,000.
Let FHA Loans Help You
Act while the good opportunities are in front of you.
.
The final paragraph states "With all of Washington standing by to protect the economic system, you can bet on eventual recovery, even if there's a recession to get through. So use tough times to shop for a house, a cheaper mortgage, a good stock. When the cycle turns back up, you'll be sitting on top of the world."
Wow, pretty succinct. Meantime, the word on the financial street is that we may well be at the end of the bad news from the banking world. We did lose 250 mortgage companies but I suspect they did it to themselves by taking to much risk. Meanwhile, the loan applications based on "stated income" are slowly getting phased out, a common investor vehicle for buying property.
On the other side, FHA has gone through some major changes - they are the loan of the moment for accepting lower FICO scores, lower down payments, good interet rates, and a new maximum for the Phoenix area of $386,000.
Act while the good opportunities are in front of you.
.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Again, good news, tempered with not so good news, from Realty Times:
Real Estate Outlook: Spring Market Warm, but Consumer Confidence Low
We are probably all so concerned with the state of the economy, not without basis I realize, that we may be in "overshoot" mode - our confidence (or lack of) could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I haven't missed any meals, I don't have to line up for food or gas, and while I do see a few folks around me that are having a rough time, we have all had our bumps on the way through life. Darn shame the media can't point up a little good news now and then.
My prayers go out to those having the rough times right now. I hope it will be short lived.
Real Estate Outlook: Spring Market Warm, but Consumer Confidence Low
We are probably all so concerned with the state of the economy, not without basis I realize, that we may be in "overshoot" mode - our confidence (or lack of) could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I haven't missed any meals, I don't have to line up for food or gas, and while I do see a few folks around me that are having a rough time, we have all had our bumps on the way through life. Darn shame the media can't point up a little good news now and then.
My prayers go out to those having the rough times right now. I hope it will be short lived.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
SOUTHEAST VALLEY SALES & INVENTORY REPORT
A one week later "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.
This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
MLS INVENTORY - 04/09 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY
The number of listing increased by 355 from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.8% and sales continued at 1700+ levels. The positive news continues.
With the ACTIVE listings at 22,692 and SALES at 1765, we now have 12.8 months of inventory in the system for the SouthEast Valley.
As a bonus, here is the data for the entire Phoenix MLS area.
MLS INVENTORY - 04/09 - TOTAL VALLEY
We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listings and sales activity for your decision making process.
This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.
Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:
The number of listing increased by 355 from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.8% and sales continued at 1700+ levels. The positive news continues.
With the ACTIVE listings at 22,692 and SALES at 1765, we now have 12.8 months of inventory in the system for the SouthEast Valley.
As a bonus, here is the data for the entire Phoenix MLS area.
We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listings and sales activity for your decision making process.
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