Realty Times of February 15, 2010
Real Estate Outlook: National PMI Index by Kenneth R. Harney
One of the most accurate forecasters of housing value movements has just signaled something potentially important: For the first time in a year, according to the national PMI index, “overall risk has decreased” in the 384 metropolitan markets covered by the survey.
The PMI risk index is produced quarterly by private mortgage insurance giant, PMI Group. It examines local employment, household income, economic growth, demographic changes and other factors to predict where home values are headed in these market areas.
PMI's risk index was among the earliest warning bells about the housing crash, so its quarterly findings are followed closely by mortgage analysts. According to the latest index released last week, home values are increasing in dozens of major metropolitan markets, causing the average risk rating for the U.S. to drop by 2.6 percent.
That's not huge, but it's a directional signal. The index found risk levels elevated in the so-called “sand states” -- California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. It also documented a slight worsening of affordability conditions in 81 percent of metropolitan markets -- mainly the result of the uptick in home prices and slightly higher average mortgage interest rates late last year.
Another key market barometer was released last week with at least mildly encouraging numbers: The Zillow index of home owner negative equity found that the national average rate dropped to 21.4 percent in the last quarter of 2009, down from 23 percent in the second quarter.
Also the Federal Reserve's quarterly study measuring the nation's finances - the so-called “flow of funds” report, found that after nearly three years of declines, Americans are building positive equity in their homes again.
Between the first quarter of last year and the third quarter, according to the Fed, homeowner equity increased by almost $1 trillion. That was caused primarily by a combination of rising home values and principal paydowns on mortgages.
Meanwhile, home builders are also reporting an easing of their multi-year tale of woe: Several major publicly-traded national builders, including D R Horton and Beazer, announced last week that they are seeing higher numbers of orders along with reduced cancellation rates on contracts.
Horton said in its most recent quarter, orders for new homes were 45 percent above year-earlier levels, and the cancellation rate dropped from 38 percent to 26 percent.
Mortgage rates continue to be helpful as well: Thirty year fixed rates dropped to 4.9 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Fifteen year rates remained flat at 4.3 percent.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
Buyer's Tax Credit
Last October most people thought the first time home buyers’ tax credit was over and done with, the deadline of November 30, 2009 looked impossible for most people to close escrow within the time frame necessary to claim their tax credit of up to $8,000. Don’t let this happen twice!
Thanks to the National Association of REALTORS’® call to action and the overwhelming response of its members, we got an extension and expansion of this valuable program. Its new expanded version not only extends the first time home buyer tax credit but now opens the program up to property owners that have owned their home for at least five (5) years.
I invite you to visit REALTOR.org for a full explanation of this program together with free and low-cost pamphlets to order/download explaining how this works. Bottom line for both tax credit groups is they must have a property under contract by April 30th, 2010 and close escrow by June 30th. Come on people – time’s a wastin’. Let hit the road running and help clients take advantage of that credit. Check out what’s going on right now to help you:
Thanks to the National Association of REALTORS’® call to action and the overwhelming response of its members, we got an extension and expansion of this valuable program. Its new expanded version not only extends the first time home buyer tax credit but now opens the program up to property owners that have owned their home for at least five (5) years.
I invite you to visit REALTOR.org for a full explanation of this program together with free and low-cost pamphlets to order/download explaining how this works. Bottom line for both tax credit groups is they must have a property under contract by April 30th, 2010 and close escrow by June 30th. Come on people – time’s a wastin’. Let hit the road running and help clients take advantage of that credit. Check out what’s going on right now to help you:
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Refinancing
Realty Times of February 11, 2010
Resolve to Take a Look at Refinancing by Broderick Perkins
If you haven't looked into refinancing your mortgage under federal programs, you could be missing an opportunity to save money, keep your home and give the economy a little juice.
Federal mortgage refinance programs have given more than 2 million homeowners a better shot at holding on and the economy a much needed shot in the arm.
What's more, the year began with fixed interest rates hovering slightly above 5 percent, but still near record lows, according to Erate.com.
First American CoreLogic's "How the U.S. Consumer Has Benefited from Mortgage Finance Programs in 2009," reveals a group of 2.2 million homeowners have saved an average $120 a month on their mortgage payment -- a 10.5 percent reduction from the previous mortgage payment.
The study says the refinance activity will result in $2.3 billion in mortgage payment savings for borrowers who refinanced in the first six months of 2009. Over the next five years, the total benefit to homeowners who refinanced in 2009 will grow to $11.5 billion.
The study analyzed residential mortgage refinances that occurred between October 2008 and June 2009 to test the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to lower interest rates and to measure effect of the Making Home Affordable's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).
This summer, HARP gave a hand up to more homeowners suffering mortgages larger than the value of their home.
Borrowers current on payments with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guaranteed loans could be eligible for refinancing into new loans even if they owe as much as 125 percent of the home's current value. The previous HARP loan-to-value limit was 105 percent.
Also, if the existing mortgage were written without mortgage insurance, the new loan won't be burdened with the extra cost. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans typically require mortgage insurance when the loan is more than 80 percent of the home's value.
Of course, if the current mortgage has mortgage insurance and the new loan is 80 percent or more of the home's value, mortgage insurance comes with the deal.
The new 125 percent limit also may not apply if a second mortgage combined with the first exceeds the limit. The new deal also doesn't allow homeowners to take cash out.
Another plus from the program: The higher loan-to-value ratios were first available only to qualified borrowers who applied through their existing servicer.
That's changed.
Since Oct. 1, 2009, homeowners got the option to shop around and refinance through any Fannie or Freddie lender.
In addition to lowering your monthly payment, a refinanced mortgage can move you to a fixed or adjustable rate, shorten the term of your home loan, or let you tap home equity -- with a lender's approval.
"The quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve and refinance activity made possible by the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) have allowed more than 2 million consumers to reduce their monthly mortgage debt obligations and put more money in their pockets," said study author, Mark Fleming, Ph.D. and First American's chief economist.
"This permanent increase in monthly income is likely to, in part, be used to increase consumption and help to drive growth as the economy rebounds. The combination of lower payments and fixed-rate terms should also reduce the risk of future foreclosure," he added.
Perhaps, but some say the economy needs more than lower rates.
"Low fixed rates are only part of the solution to our economic problems," says Nancy Osborne, chief operating officer at Erate.com.
"Home buyers can enjoy record low rates to help them qualify for more home, and this in conjunction with the government's home-buyer tax credit work to stimulate the purchase market, yet the rising unemployment rate may make purchasing a home somewhat risky for all but the most securely employed," she added.
To check your eligibility for a refinance under the new provision, go to Making Home Affordable.
To compare rates, costs and other factors by state, go to Erate.com.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Resolve to Take a Look at Refinancing by Broderick Perkins
If you haven't looked into refinancing your mortgage under federal programs, you could be missing an opportunity to save money, keep your home and give the economy a little juice.
Federal mortgage refinance programs have given more than 2 million homeowners a better shot at holding on and the economy a much needed shot in the arm.
What's more, the year began with fixed interest rates hovering slightly above 5 percent, but still near record lows, according to Erate.com.
First American CoreLogic's "How the U.S. Consumer Has Benefited from Mortgage Finance Programs in 2009," reveals a group of 2.2 million homeowners have saved an average $120 a month on their mortgage payment -- a 10.5 percent reduction from the previous mortgage payment.
The study says the refinance activity will result in $2.3 billion in mortgage payment savings for borrowers who refinanced in the first six months of 2009. Over the next five years, the total benefit to homeowners who refinanced in 2009 will grow to $11.5 billion.
The study analyzed residential mortgage refinances that occurred between October 2008 and June 2009 to test the impact of Federal Reserve efforts to lower interest rates and to measure effect of the Making Home Affordable's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).
This summer, HARP gave a hand up to more homeowners suffering mortgages larger than the value of their home.
Borrowers current on payments with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac guaranteed loans could be eligible for refinancing into new loans even if they owe as much as 125 percent of the home's current value. The previous HARP loan-to-value limit was 105 percent.
Also, if the existing mortgage were written without mortgage insurance, the new loan won't be burdened with the extra cost. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans typically require mortgage insurance when the loan is more than 80 percent of the home's value.
Of course, if the current mortgage has mortgage insurance and the new loan is 80 percent or more of the home's value, mortgage insurance comes with the deal.
The new 125 percent limit also may not apply if a second mortgage combined with the first exceeds the limit. The new deal also doesn't allow homeowners to take cash out.
Another plus from the program: The higher loan-to-value ratios were first available only to qualified borrowers who applied through their existing servicer.
That's changed.
Since Oct. 1, 2009, homeowners got the option to shop around and refinance through any Fannie or Freddie lender.
In addition to lowering your monthly payment, a refinanced mortgage can move you to a fixed or adjustable rate, shorten the term of your home loan, or let you tap home equity -- with a lender's approval.
"The quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve and refinance activity made possible by the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) have allowed more than 2 million consumers to reduce their monthly mortgage debt obligations and put more money in their pockets," said study author, Mark Fleming, Ph.D. and First American's chief economist.
"This permanent increase in monthly income is likely to, in part, be used to increase consumption and help to drive growth as the economy rebounds. The combination of lower payments and fixed-rate terms should also reduce the risk of future foreclosure," he added.
Perhaps, but some say the economy needs more than lower rates.
"Low fixed rates are only part of the solution to our economic problems," says Nancy Osborne, chief operating officer at Erate.com.
"Home buyers can enjoy record low rates to help them qualify for more home, and this in conjunction with the government's home-buyer tax credit work to stimulate the purchase market, yet the rising unemployment rate may make purchasing a home somewhat risky for all but the most securely employed," she added.
To check your eligibility for a refinance under the new provision, go to Making Home Affordable.
To compare rates, costs and other factors by state, go to Erate.com.
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Housing Affected by Demographic Trends
From Realty Times of February 5, 2010
Housing Affected by Demographic Trends by Phoebe Chongchua
The Urban Land Institute predicts there will be two major changes beginning in this new decade in our country that will affect the housing market.
The first is that home appreciation will slow. The report predicts annual appreciation of 1 percent to 2 percent. The second change is that the record-high U.S. homeownership rate will decline from 69 percent to 62 percent.
Four other demographic trends are likely to have an impact as well. Aging baby boomers, those 55 to 64 years old, will keep working, and, some may stay put in their current suburban homes until the values recover. And, just as I wrote about last week, those in this group who do move will look for comfortable, easy homes (first-floor master bedroom), but the report indicates they’ll look for mixed-age living environments that cater to active lifestyles.
The second major demographic trend could impact the second-home market. Those between the ages of 46 to 54 years old, according to the report, are in their prime earning years; however, they lack home equity and may not be able to afford second homes (unlike the older baby boomers).
There are approximately 68-million people that make up Generation Y. This group is even larger than the baby boomers. But the report indicates this group is less interested in homeownership. The author of the report, John K. McIlwain, wrote, “They will be renters by necessity or choice for years ahead.” Not surprisingly, this tech-savvy group places high value on communities—real and virtual—where information and ideas can be shared.
This generation likes walkable, close-in communities. They’re not seeking to escape to the outer edges of town, unless they can’t afford anything nearby. Another big draw—“net zero” homes—green and powered exclusively by alternative energy.
The fourth major demographic trend involves immigrants. This group is often attracted to multi-generational housing in areas that have a strong sense of community. So, larger homes are preferred, if affordable.
Overall, the lasting stability of the U.S. housing market, according to McIlwain, will depend most on the structure and revitalization of the private home mortgage finance system.
"Re-establishing a robust private mortgage market will require both strong market fundamentals and a reformed mortgage securitization structure that eliminates past abuses," McIlwain said. Bye-bye suburbia, study says. Well, not completely. But the study does indicate that several factors are escalating the popularity of urbanization: two-person household growth (including those households without children), fewer baby boomers moving to the suburbs, Gen Y opting/forced to rent rather than own, and public policies that encourage compact development.
However, the author of the study says that urban infill development can’t accommodate all the housing demand from the demographic groups. McIlwain cautions that suburban development "must adapt or it will be obsolete.” A new era is blossoming, “The suburban century is over. This is the urban century."
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
Housing Affected by Demographic Trends by Phoebe Chongchua
The Urban Land Institute predicts there will be two major changes beginning in this new decade in our country that will affect the housing market.
The first is that home appreciation will slow. The report predicts annual appreciation of 1 percent to 2 percent. The second change is that the record-high U.S. homeownership rate will decline from 69 percent to 62 percent.
Four other demographic trends are likely to have an impact as well. Aging baby boomers, those 55 to 64 years old, will keep working, and, some may stay put in their current suburban homes until the values recover. And, just as I wrote about last week, those in this group who do move will look for comfortable, easy homes (first-floor master bedroom), but the report indicates they’ll look for mixed-age living environments that cater to active lifestyles.
The second major demographic trend could impact the second-home market. Those between the ages of 46 to 54 years old, according to the report, are in their prime earning years; however, they lack home equity and may not be able to afford second homes (unlike the older baby boomers).
There are approximately 68-million people that make up Generation Y. This group is even larger than the baby boomers. But the report indicates this group is less interested in homeownership. The author of the report, John K. McIlwain, wrote, “They will be renters by necessity or choice for years ahead.” Not surprisingly, this tech-savvy group places high value on communities—real and virtual—where information and ideas can be shared.
This generation likes walkable, close-in communities. They’re not seeking to escape to the outer edges of town, unless they can’t afford anything nearby. Another big draw—“net zero” homes—green and powered exclusively by alternative energy.
The fourth major demographic trend involves immigrants. This group is often attracted to multi-generational housing in areas that have a strong sense of community. So, larger homes are preferred, if affordable.
Overall, the lasting stability of the U.S. housing market, according to McIlwain, will depend most on the structure and revitalization of the private home mortgage finance system.
"Re-establishing a robust private mortgage market will require both strong market fundamentals and a reformed mortgage securitization structure that eliminates past abuses," McIlwain said. Bye-bye suburbia, study says. Well, not completely. But the study does indicate that several factors are escalating the popularity of urbanization: two-person household growth (including those households without children), fewer baby boomers moving to the suburbs, Gen Y opting/forced to rent rather than own, and public policies that encourage compact development.
However, the author of the study says that urban infill development can’t accommodate all the housing demand from the demographic groups. McIlwain cautions that suburban development "must adapt or it will be obsolete.” A new era is blossoming, “The suburban century is over. This is the urban century."
Copyright © 2010 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
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