PHX-EAST-VALLEY-CITIES

Watch the Midyear Housing Market Update Video from the National Association of Realtors

2008-05-22T08:44:00.000-07:00

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has concluded its mid-year legislative meetings.

One of the highlights of the meeting was a presentation by the NAR Chief Economist.

2008 NAR President-Elect Charles McMillan and Chief Economist Lawrence Yun provided Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo attendees with news on the housing market and when we can expect a recovery.

Click here to watch the video.

A positive message can brighten the future for all of us.

The video is Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500

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PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS

2008-05-22T08:16:00.001-07:00

The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 05/13 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

The number of listings decreased by 101 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 171 and sales were up by 39 (2.0%). The positive news continues!

With the ACTIVE listings at 18885 and SALES at 2004, we now have 10.6 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, up slightly from 2 weeks ago.

Positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area showed the listings decreased by 1330 to 54315, new contracts in escrow were up by 370, and sales completed were up by 540 (11.9%). We now have 9.3 months of inventory in the Phoenix MLS pipeline.

MLS INVENTORY - 05/13 - TOTAL VALLEY

Keep the good times rolling.

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Fannie Mae Removes High Downpayment Provisions

2008-05-20T11:11:00.001-07:00

From NewsGeni.us an article from CNNMoney.com:

Fannie Mae Removes High Downpayment Provisions

This will improve the sale of mortgages by many lenders, thus loosening up the money available to lend on new mortgages.

In parallel, Congress is still kicking around a credit relief program to stimulate the lending process with the aim of resolving the Housing Crisis sooner. Bush is prepared to veto since it's the taxpayers that will pay the price ultimately.

Here is a chance to read the process and progress of such a bill through our congress:

House Bill H.R.3221

Why should I worry, the Government will fix it - if I live long enough.

-30-

Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer

2008-05-14T08:38:00.000-07:00

The latest projection from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008

"A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.

Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.

Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.

"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."

New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9."

© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611

DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500

PHOENIX & EAST VALLEY SALES & LISTINGS

2008-05-08T21:33:00.001-07:00

The latest "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market provided courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 05/07 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

The number of listings decreased by 547 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 51 and sales were up by 121(6.6%). The positive news continues!

With the ACTIVE listings at 18986 and SALES at 1965, we now have 9.7 months of inventory in the pipeline for the South East Valley, down from over 10.8 months.

The South East Valley provided most of the positive results for the total Phoenix MLS area which showed the listings decreased by only 217 to 55428, new contracts in escrow were down by 27, althougth sales completed were up by 407 (9.0%).

MLS INVENTORY - 05/07 - TOTAL VALLEY

Keep up the good work, folks.

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Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer

2008-05-08T16:22:00.001-07:00

Courtesy of the National Association of Realtors®:

WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008

A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.

Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.

Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.

"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."

New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

Existing-home sales for April will be released May 23; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 9.

© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® | Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611

Avoiding Mortgage Fraud

2008-05-07T06:55:00.000-07:00

Although Courtesy of the Realty Times, this makes two fine articles in a row from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.

Caveat Emptor is Latin for "Let the buyer beware".

Some surprising numbers from the FBI regarding mortgage fraud and Brodericks cautions on how to avoid it. Do your homework, folks.

So Many Homes, So Few Buyers

2008-05-06T10:57:00.001-07:00

Courtesy of the Realty Times:

So Many Homes, So Few Buyers

A somewhat philosophical look at the market from Broderick Perkins, founder and editor of the The DeadlineNews Group.

PHOENIX SALES & INVENTORY REPORT

2008-04-25T22:25:00.000-07:00

A two week later "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.

This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 04/23 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

The number of listings decreased by 156 from 2 weeks ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.1% and sales up by 79 (4.5%). The positive news continues!

With the ACTIVE listings at 19533 and SALES at 1844, we now have 10.8 months of inventory in the system for the South East Valley, down from over 12 months.

For the entire Phoenix MLS area, more good news. Inventory down modestly, new contracts accepted (pending) up by 982, and sales closed 152.

MLS INVENTORY - 04/23 - TOTAL VALLEY

"In the right direction."

A new report: VALLEY LISTINGS VS SOLDS

Inventory is 2 times the Jan. 2002 level but declining - Sales are at 1/2 the Jan.2005 peak but improving.

Keep up the good work, folks.

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A POSITIVE COMMENT FROM THE MEDIA

2008-04-20T19:16:00.000-07:00

The March 31, 2008 NEWSWEEK contains an article regarding the economy entitled "COOLER HEADS PREVAIL".

The final paragraph states "With all of Washington standing by to protect the economic system, you can bet on eventual recovery, even if there's a recession to get through. So use tough times to shop for a house, a cheaper mortgage, a good stock. When the cycle turns back up, you'll be sitting on top of the world."

Wow, pretty succinct. Meantime, the word on the financial street is that we may well be at the end of the bad news from the banking world. We did lose 250 mortgage companies but I suspect they did it to themselves by taking to much risk. Meanwhile, the loan applications based on "stated income" are slowly getting phased out, a common investor vehicle for buying property.

On the other side, FHA has gone through some major changes - they are the loan of the moment for accepting lower FICO scores, lower down payments, good interet rates, and a new maximum for the Phoenix area of $386,000.

Let FHA Loans Help You

Act while the good opportunities are in front of you.

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REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

2008-04-17T07:27:00.000-07:00

Again, good news, tempered with not so good news, from Realty Times:

Real Estate Outlook: Spring Market Warm, but Consumer Confidence Low

We are probably all so concerned with the state of the economy, not without basis I realize, that we may be in "overshoot" mode - our confidence (or lack of) could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I haven't missed any meals, I don't have to line up for food or gas, and while I do see a few folks around me that are having a rough time, we have all had our bumps on the way through life. Darn shame the media can't point up a little good news now and then.

My prayers go out to those having the rough times right now. I hope it will be short lived.

SOUTHEAST VALLEY SALES & INVENTORY REPORT

2008-04-15T10:12:00.001-07:00

A one week later "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.

This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 04/09 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

The number of listing increased by 355 from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow increased by 11.8% and sales continued at 1700+ levels. The positive news continues.

With the ACTIVE listings at 22,692 and SALES at 1765, we now have 12.8 months of inventory in the system for the SouthEast Valley.

As a bonus, here is the data for the entire Phoenix MLS area.

MLS INVENTORY - 04/09 - TOTAL VALLEY

We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listings and sales activity for your decision making process.

MORTGAGE HELP STALLED IN CONGRESS

2008-04-14T09:34:00.000-07:00

Me thinks we need to clean out the Congress and put in some folks who do things:

Bills on Capitol Hill

Aside from delaying aide to those who need it, our economy could use a little medical attention right now!

SOUTHEAST VALLEY SALES & INVENTORY REPORT

2008-04-04T09:26:00.001-07:00

A one week later "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.

This data is provided courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 04/02 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

The number of listing decreased from 1 week ago, new contracts in escrow declined by 3.5% and sales of 1770 homes (a 9% increase). A continuation of the positive news.

With the ACTIVE listings at 22,337 and SALES at 1770, we now have 11.1 months of inventory in the system for the SouthEast Valley.

We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listings and sales activity for your East Valley decision making process.

PHOENIX SOUTHEAST VALLEY REPORT CARD

2008-03-27T19:21:00.001-07:00

SEV scores well on quality-of-life report card

The report says it all - nothing to add!

GREAT REPORT FOR SOUTHEAST VALLEY SALES & INVENTORY

2008-03-27T16:36:00.001-07:00

This is the latest 2008 "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.

This data is provided roughly weekly courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog after viewing the data:

MLS INVENTORY - 03/26 - SOUTHEAST VALLEY

While the number of listing only increased by 134 Homes since the Feb.13 report below, the 30 day period ending Mar.26 produced new contracts in escrow of 2781 (a 24.4% increase) and sales of 1625 homes (a 43% increase) from the Feb.13 report. Good news indeed and hopefully a sign of the months ahead of us. This is later data than the article two steps below this which reported a 3% national increase in Feb.

An editorial comment based on conversations with other Realtors and heard from Investor presumed Experts - we may be at the bottom. I personally feel there may still be something under 6-8% left to go.

We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listings and sales activity for your East Valley decision making process.

ARE YOU READY FOR THE FEB 2009 TV CHANGE?

2008-03-26T19:16:00.001-07:00

By now you have hopefully heard that some TV sets will stop working on February 17, 2009. We leave the world of Analog TV and enter the era of Digital TV.

If you are not aware, here's the scoop on what will happen and how to be ready for it.

All about the coming change in Television

You will now be prepared to continue as today with your everyday TV watching!

And by the way, as predicted in this blog, Blu-Ray is the winner in the chase toward the preferred format for High Definition DVDs. It does appear that there will be some sources for the HD DVD format for some time, but don't rush out and buy one of these units at this stage. That goes for Beta VCRs and 8 Track tape players as well!

Rising Housing Sales

2008-03-25T10:26:00.001-07:00

A good news, tempered with not so good news, from Realty Times:

Rising Housing Sales Should Be No Surprise

The stock market reacted favorably to the sales improvement in February so maybe we will see some form of turning point soon.

CELL PHONE DO NOT CALL LIST

2008-03-17T22:28:00.001-07:00

There is an email making the rounds that suggests March 18, 2008, as a date that Telemarketeers can call your cell phone. To prevent this, you must register on the Government Do Not Call List. It will take 31 days after you register to make this active but it never expires!

As this is written it has been over 3 years since the TRUE effective date, January 1, 2005. Telemarketing companies are required to recheck their lists every 31 days, thus it is better late than never to sign up.

This website is good for cell phone and land line phone numbers, so do them all unless your are a telemarketeer - we hope they get the calls:

DO NOT CALL LIST

This website can also be used to report violaters of the law. Big penalties have been filed against many companies. Feel free to help!

ALMOST GOOD NEWS?

2008-02-28T07:04:00.000-08:00

The Cheif Economist for the Conference Board offers a glimmer of hope in this Realty Times articel:

AN OPTIMIST AMONG THE MEDIA?

I for one certainly hope she is right. I must confess, it't beginning to get on my nerves!

And for those facing the potential of the foreclosure process, please, please, get in touch with your lender and/or some of the organizations in earlier blogs on here. Do not, under any circumstances, allow yourself to get caught up in the "helper scams" that individuals are perpertrating on less knowledgeable homeowners. If in doubt, call me!

LATEST REPORT FOR SOUTHEAST VALLEY SALES & INVENTORY

2008-02-16T19:26:00.001-08:00

This is the latest 2008 weekly "last 30 day" report for the Southeast Phoenix Valley market.

This data is provided weekly courtesy of First American Title.

Please use the BACK arrow to return to this Blog:

MLS INVENTORY - 02/13- SOUTHEAST VALLEY

Indeed, consistent with the REBAC article just below, in the Southeast Valley, pending sales for the 30 day period ending Dec.12 (1816) to the 30 day period ending Feb. 13 (2234) have increased by 418 homes (23%). This is in the face of many, many, sitting on the side trying to "time the Real Estate market".

We offer this data as a candid, unfiltered, indicator of home listing and sales activity for your East Valley decision making process.

STABLE EXISTING-HOME SALES EXPECTED IN EARLY 2008

2008-02-16T19:14:00.000-08:00

An article from REBAC's HOTSHEET suggests that the recent increase in pending sales projects improvements in 2008:

STABLE EXISTING-HOME SALES EXPECTED IN EARLY 2008

Again, let's hope they are right. Sure tired of the "downer" news coming from most new media sources.

HD DVDs versus Blu-ray

2008-02-15T18:37:00.000-08:00

For those interested in High Definition, a VHS/Beta type competition has been underway for some time in the DVD market.

HD DVD is one format suggested by Toshiba while Blu-ray is a Sony product. The following annoucement by Wal-Mart courtesy of MSNBC is a real blow to HD-DVD:

Wal-Mart dumps HD DVDs to back Blu-ray

Don't buy either until the dust finally settles.

LENDERS OFFER BROADER MORTGAGE HELP...

2008-02-14T16:24:00.001-08:00

Click on the title above. This article from USA Today highlights the several programs available to assist those facing foreclosure. The latest plan will allow seriously overdue homeowners to suspend foreclosures for 30 days while lenders try to work out more affordable loan terms.

As an aside, Phoenix is number 22 on the list of cities with the most foreclosures.

Housing Hangover Leaves Consumers Confused

2008-02-12T08:30:00.000-08:00

This article from Realty Times says that 56% of those in foreclosure still don't know there are people that can help out there. Make sure you send this to anyone who you know is in a potential financial burden:

THE WORD IS NOT GETTING OUT!

The news media tend to emphasis the bad and fail to communicate the possible help that is available. Do your friends a favor!